Notre Dame has, without a doubt, the worst loss of any current College Football Playoff contender. There’s no sugar-coating how damaging it is to have a resume that includes a home loss to a Mid-American Conference team that is currently near the bottom of its league standings. But the Fighting Irish have played well enough in the six games since that dreadful day to earn themselves a spot in my latest CFP projection.
This is a divisive topic. And we are still a week away from the first set of CFP rankings from the actual selection committee — which will give us clarity on the issue — so it’s also the perfect debate topic for college football fans. Here’s how I see it: Notre Dame is a different and better team now than it was in its Week 2 loss. The Irish figured out their passing game, led by transfer quarterback Riley Leonard (who had offseason surgery and missed all of spring ball). After zero passing touchdowns and two interceptions in the first two games of the season with an average of just 5.1 yards per attempt, the Irish have 10 passing touchdowns and just one interception with an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in the six games since. It takes time for a newcomer to figure out a new offensive system, and for the staff to figure out the best way to use him. The passing attack then helps a run game that boasts one of the more explosive runners in the country in Jeremiyah Love. It’s a win-win for the offense as a whole, and it’s been huge to help an elite defense that has been hit hard with injuries.
All that to say, the 12-team version of the College Football Playoff is not set up to exclude a one-loss Notre Dame team, no matter the loss. Former Irish athletic director Jack Swarbrick was part of the working group that proposed this model, and he knew that any bracket with more at-large access than the initial four-team model did was a good system for Notre Dame. This bracket has seven at-large spots. The seven teams that get these spots on December 8 will be teams that have flaws and/or flawed resumes.
That’s just how it is, especially in a season like this that’s been marked by so many upsets. I understand that the Notre Dame debate will come down to the quality of its wins — the Week 1 win over Texas A&M looks better and better, and the beatdown of Navy is another feather in its cap — versus its loss. So will the other one-loss and two-loss teams. But the selection committee is made up of humans for a reason; they want former coaches and players on there who can evaluate how a team is playing. They want to give credit to teams for improving as the year goes on. And I really have no doubt that a Notre Dame team that wins out will be in the final bracket. As my projection shows, I think they’ve already made up for that loss as we sit here in late October. But it might take the real selection committee longer to catch up to me.
Another team that rose high enough to make it into the field this week is Texas A&M. That win over LSU, coupled with the blowout win of Missouri, was incredibly impressive. You can see Mike Elko‘s imprint all over this team in his first season in College Station. This team is tough, mentally and physically. And Marcel Reed can be quite the dynamic playmaker. Here’s hoping Texas A&M and Texas both win out to set up a massive rivalry game come Thanksgiving weekend.
Elsewhere, I’ve still got Oregon in the top spot both on the strength of the Ducks’ win over Ohio State and because of the way they’ve been playing lately. This might be the most complete team in the nation. Georgia, Miami and BYU remain on the inside track to win their respective conferences (or at least get to the league title games at this point). The order of Nos. 5-8 will surely shift by this time next week, with Ohio State traveling to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. We’ll also get more clarity on the ACC race as Pitt (a team in my First Four Out) takes on SMU this weekend and Clemson two weeks later.
A quick housekeeping note: Each Tuesday night following the reveal of the CFP rankings, Joshua Perry and I will record a reaction podcast that will publish on our Rushing The Field feed (in addition to our regular weekly show). Please be sure to subscribe, rate and review us!
