Coming out of a weekend that exposed both Michigan and Notre Dame as flawed teams — but not quite out of the College Football Playoff picture yet — this sport is starting to provide some clarity, at least at the very top.
Georgia is absolutely as good as advertised. Ohio State’s talent level is ridiculously high. And Texas belongs in the same tier as those two teams after a dominant performance in the Big House. That’s why I’ve got the Longhorns listed as the top at-large team in my field this week, though of course the order of the SEC teams could change drastically depending on how the Georgia-Texas game goes, among other big-time matchups to come this fall. Still, I’ve got a lot of ‘em in my 12-team CFP projection now.
Georgia’s placement in my projection needs little explanation, and neither does Texas’. And while Alabama struggled for most of the game against USF, the Tide was able to pull away late with some explosive plays. I think this team is going to be just fine in Kalen DeBoer’s first season, so right now I’ve got them ahead of Ole Miss, even though the Rebs have been piling up points and yardage against overmatched opponents through two games. We’ll learn more about the top SEC contenders soon.
Though two weeks of games aren’t a ton of data points, I’ve seen enough so far to change my feelings about the Big Ten. Before the season, I thought Oregon could win the league in its first year, but the Ducks’ offensive line needs to improve before that can happen — as do all of the other aspects of the offense that result in its disjointed play. They’ve got a month to figure things out before Ohio State comes to town. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been rolling. Against teams they should beat handily, they do; Jeremiah Smith is as special as the coaching staff says he is. I’ve also subbed Michigan out of my 12-team bracket because the offense has significantly more issues than I anticipated it would heading into the year, and I’ve got Penn State in the field now that we have seen Andy Kotelnicki’s impact as the new offensive coordinator. I’m not too worried about the Nittany Lions’ letdown game last weekend.
Miami should still be considered the favorite in the ACC, even though Clemson got off the mat and crushed Appalachian State, 66-20, behind seven total Cade Klubnik touchdowns. I’m still in wait-and-see mode with the Tigers overall, though, with important games against North Carolina State and Florida State coming up in the next few weeks. So, right now there’s just the one ACC team in my 12-team field.
The Big 12 has just one participant right now, too. It’s Utah, the team I believe is the one to beat in its first year in the new conference. The Utes have handled business through their first two games, and assuming the Cam Rising injury isn’t serious enough to keep him out more than a game (if that), they should be able to stay a cut above the rest of the Big 12. It feels like this will be a league with a lot of teams capable of beating each other because the talent level is so close across the board. But that could mean a lot of teams cannibalizing each other’s CFP chances ... which is why I’ve only got one team in the field for now as well.
Boise State remains my favorite to land the Group of 5 champion spot in the 12-team field because of the Broncos’ strength of schedule and the eye test. Not only did Boise State go toe-to-toe against Oregon (a loss that won’t count much against them in the selection committee’s eyes) but star running back Ashton Jeanty looks every bit the part of a Heisman Trophy hopeful. That could come into play as the committee evaluates the top Group of 5 teams against one another later in the season.
A scheduling note: I’ll project the 12-team CFP each Tuesday for the rest of the season, and once the selection committee begins unveiling its rankings in November, I’ll analyze them each week as well.
