Missouri has had a relatively easy path playing the 105th ranked schedule in the country to this point. Despite their soft initial slate, HC Eli Drinkwitz underperformed in a narrow 27-21 win over Boston College (55th ranked SP+) and then managed to steal a coin-flip 30-27 OT victory over Vanderbilt. While Mizzou’s offense is an efficient unit that is producing 32 points per game with a 49% success rate (22nd), they are struggling mightily to create big plays, ranking 128th in yards per successful play (10.7) and 122nd in marginal explosiveness. The defense has been very strong outside of a few game-changing big plays, ranking 3rd in success rate and 4th with a superb 50% 3-and-out rate.
In contrast to Mizzou’s early season cakewalk, Texas A&M ranks 28th in strength of schedule to date, with all four of their games against FBS opponents being decided by 13 points or less. They lost the opener 23-13 to Notre Dame but bounced back with tough victories over Florida (33-23), pesky Bowling Green (26-20) and Arkansas (21-17). Their offenses are eerily similar to Missouri with a solid down-to-down profile, but ranking 127th in IsoPPP, 127th in marginal explosiveness and 118th in yards per successful play. Defensively they’re not quite on par with Missouri but are still very good ranking 23rd in defensive SP+.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Missouri @ Texas A&M live
- Date: Saturday, October 5th, 2024
- Time: 12:00 PM EST
- Location: Kyle Field
- City: College Station, Texas
- TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Latest Game odds for Missouri @ Texas A&M - Week 6
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
- Money Line: Texas A&M (-115), Missouri (+135)
- Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas A&M -4 was the line off the jump and has since moved towards the road team Missouri, currently trading -2/2.5 depending on the book. There hasn’t been much movement on the total which sits at 48-48.5 after opening at 49. Same goes for the moneyline that opened -130/+110 and is almost unchanged from that mark.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) expects points to be at a premium in this game:
“With an unsettled QB room that lacks the experience of grizzled Mizzou vet Brady Cook, Texas A&M will look to try and grind out another methodically paced rock-fight, which lines up nicely with Mizzou’s completely non-explosive offense. I feel confident about the UNDER 48.5 points total cashing.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Week 6 Insights
Most bet games (tickets)
- Syracuse-UNLV
- Michigan State-Oregon
- Tennessee-Arkansas
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Tennessee -13.5
- UNLV -6.5
- Michigan +1.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Navy -9
- Alabama -23.5
- Tennessee -13.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
- Michigan State-Oregon 52.5
- Iowa-Ohio State 45.5
- Syracuse-UNLV 57.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
- Baylor-Iowa State 44.5
- Indiana-Northwestern 41.5
- USC-Minnesota 49.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
- Michigan +100
- Missouri +115
- Michigan State +1200
Quarterback matchup for Missouri @ Texas A&M
- Missouri: QB Brady Cook has been the Tigers’ starter for three years and is in the midst of his most accurate campaign having completed 68% of his attempts this year (65% 2023). Some of that improvement is due to his average target depth decreasing from 9.6 to 8.1 yards per pass, decreasing the degree of difficulty. This change has also led to a drop in yards per attempt with Cook going from 8.9 YPA in 2023 to 7.0 this year. This has led to a dearth of field-stretching passes, with Mizzou ranking a seemingly impossible 134th in Passing explosiveness and 127th in completion rate of 20+ yards (9.3%). Texas A&M ranks 16th in defending explosive pass plays with a 4.4% interception rate (21st), so it would seem to be a difficult matchup for Cook to right the ship.
- Texas A&M: It’s been an injury-marred rollercoaster at quarterback with former five-star prospect Conner Weigman returning from a season-ending injury in 2023 to complete 23-of-44 passes for 225 yards, a 52% completion rate and a morose 4.1 yards per pass attempt before getting injured. There is a great deal of conjecture whether or not he will suit up, but the Aggies might be better off with Marcel Reed who is on par with Weigman from an accurate standpoint (54% comp rate) but has a 6-0 Ratio with a 13.6 yards per completion average that well outpaces Weigman’s 13.6 YPC. Reed is also an excellent runner who has tallied 230 rush yards, 5.5 YPC and two touchdowns on the ground.
Player news & recent stats
- Competent QB play is central to Texas A&M’s success, as they are 1-6 when throwing at least one interception. They are also a disappointing 1-8 ATS when averaging less than 5.0 yards per rush since 2023.
- Though he’s not particularly elusive (18% broken tackle rate), Texas A&M starting RB Le’Veon Moss has only been stuffed at the line on 5.3% of his carries and is averaging a strong 3.83 yards after contact.
- Missouri is 2-2 ATS with 3 of their first four contests going Under the assigned game total. Their ability to stop Le’Veon Moss and Marcel Reed will be important, since they are 9-4 ATS dating back to last year when holding opponents under 5.0 yards per carry.
- Missouri’s defense ranks 10th in FBS with a 32% rushing success rate allowed, 13th in EPA/rush and 7th in yards before contact. Mizzou will look to continue their rock solid 27% stuff rate on 3.4 YPC (12th).
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