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Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Michigan stands at 4-2 following a tough early season stretch that included a forgivable 31-12 loss to #1 Texas, and a sound 27-17 defeat at the hands of Washington before their Week 7 Bye. Even their last two victories against Minnesota and USC were 27-24 nail biters, with quarterback instability and roster turnover exacting a toll on their fortunes. The Wolverines rank 133rd in yards per successful play and 106th in EPA/play, but their power run game is cashing in red zone touchdowns at an 82% clip that ranks 6th in FBS, so if reinstalled QB Jack Tuttle can mount a semi-respectable passing attack Michgan’s offense could still conceivably come together.

The 5-1 Illini defeated Kansas and @Nebraska in one score games before getting humbled by @Penn State 21-7. Last week they escaped with a 50-49 win over a limping Purdue team where Illinois posted a 23% win expectancy and gave up 534 total yards. The offensive line has been a mess ranking 127th in sacks per dropback with a pitiful 11.4% blown block rate that ranks 125th in FBS. While Illinois’ secondary has been strong ranking 21st in interception rate (4.0%) and 25th in yards per successful dropback, their #43 SP+ defense is producing a dismal 51% rushing success rate (126th) and 11.5% stuff rate (132nd).

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to watch Michigan @ Illinois

  • Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
  • Time: 3:30 PM EST
  • Site: Memorial Stadium
  • City: Champaign, IL
  • TV/Streaming: CBS/Paramount+

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for Michigan @ Illinois

The latest odds as of Thursday evening:

  • Moneyline: Michigan (-160), Illinois (+135)
  • Spread: Michigan -3.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5 points

*Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Michigan opened as a -2 point favorite which has since crossed the key line of -3 and is uniformly at 3.5 across the industry at time of print. In CFB, it’s somewhat rare to see such little variance on a line after such a move. Michigan’s moneyline ranges from -165 to -175 while Illinois is trading between +145 and +128. The total has spiked from an open of 42 to a current high of 45.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Illinois has been living a charmed life, escaping with one score victories against Kansas, @Nebraska and Purdue. Michigan has a strong enough run game to take advantage of Illinois’ soft run defense and cover the -3.5 point spread on the road.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Michigan @ Illinois

  • Michigan: QB Davis Warren started the first three games before giving way to Alex Orji in Week 3 when Michigan limped to a 28-18 victory over Arkansas State. Orji started the next three games before HC Sherrone gave Indiana transfer QB Jack Tuttle a whirl in their Week 6 27-17 loss to Washington where the Wolverines accrued a mere 287 yards. With Orji completing 53.5% of his passes for a morose 3.4 yards per attempt, defenses quickly realized that UM had no hope of throwing downfield and smothered the Wolverines’ one-dimensional offense. Tuttle owns a 59.4% completion rate with a 7-to-7 ratio over his six collegiate campaigns.
  • Illinois: QB Luke Altmyer has been the engine of a strong passing offense that ranks 25th in passing success rate and 30th in total QBR. That’s important because the Illinois run game has been noticeably disappointing, ranking 96th in rushing success rate and 81st in EPA/Rush. Altmyer has been a calming presence, completing 68% of his throws with a sparkling 14-1 ratio and 81st percentile PFF offensive grade. And he’s doing it while dealing with a 33% pressure rate (87th) from an offensive line that is committing 4.7 penalties per game (106th).

Trends & recent stats for Michigan & Illinois

  • Michigan has thrown for 20+ yards on just 5.3% of pass attempts this year, third-worst among FBS offenses. Illinois’ D has allowed 20+ yard passes on 9.7% of attempts, fifth-best among Big Ten defenses, and rank 31st nationally by allowing 126.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts.
  • Though Jim Harbaugh has departed, Michigan is still running one of the slowest offenses in the land, ranking 132nd in FBS at 32 seconds per play. They’re running 69.2% on standard downs, which ranks 11th nationally, and 40% of the time in passing situations.
  • Illinois’ defense is having major issues defending the run, ranking 126th in rush success rate, 133rd in opportunity rate and 132nd with an 11.5% stuff rate. The defensive line has struggled to replace NFL draft DT Jer’Zhan Newton, ranking 2nd worst in the entire country with a 1.3% defensive line havoc rate (Nat Avg = 5.2%).
  • Illini OLB Gabe Jacas leads the team with 7.0 havoc plays, 5.0 TFL and 3.0 sacks. Slot CB Xavier Scott leads the team with three interceptions and has allowed just 116 yards in coverage on 20 targets.

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