As typically happens when there is a new coaching staff taking over a lower-tiered program in one of the two Elite Power Conferences, new Michigan State HC Jonathan Smith’s team has been inconsistent in their gameplan execution. In Week 1 they limped to a 16-10 win over a FAU program that currently ranks 105th in SP+, before scoring a big 27-24 signature win over Big Ten foe Maryland. However, since a 40-0 evisceration of Prairie View A&M, MSU has dropped two straight against Boston College where they earned a meek 19% win expectancy thanks to four costly turnovers, and a complete meltdown versus Ohio State last week. MSU ranks 130th in points per scoring opportunity, 93rd in EPA/Play and 131st with 13 turnovers through five games.
Oregon started the 2024 season slowly as they acclimated to new QB Dillon Gabriel’s play style, winning a surprisingly close 24-14 contest against Idaho in Week 1 before Boise State took Oregon to the limit in a 37-34 victory in what is now known as The Ashton Jeanty Coming Out Party. The Ducks have hit their stride since then, going on the road and destroying both Oregon State and UCLA by a combined score of 83-27. The potent OU offense currently ranks 4th in SP+ offense, 16th in pass success rate and 1st in completion rate. Their 22nd-ranked defense has been lights-out in the pass game, but is struggling to contain the run, ranking 113th in EPA/Rush and 98th in yards before contact.
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How to watch 2024 Michigan State @ Oregon live Friday Night
- Date: Friday, October 4th, 2024
- Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Location: Autzen Stadium
- City: Eugene, OR
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Latest Game odds for Michigan State @ Oregon - Week 6
The latest odds as of Wednesday:
- Moneyline: Oregon -3000, Minnesota +1200
- Spread: Oregon +24
Over/Under: 52.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This side opened at Oregon - 26.5 and has gradually whittled down to an even -24 where it currently hangs. Conversely, the total has been pretty stable at 52.5 points after opening at 52, adding just the hook. While Oregon’s ML launched at a high of -3200, we’re now seeing a low of -2500 out there, while MSU’s +1400 has dipped slightly to +1200.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes the Spartans will struggle on offense in this one:
“Oregon has allowed at least 13 points to every team they’ve played this season, though UCLA needed a pick-six from former Ducks WR Braylon Addison to reach double digits. With Michigan State committing 13 turnovers in four FBS games thus far, and Oregon ranking 8th in defensive Havoc Rate, I think Michigan State will try to play a little more conservative in order to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way. I have a hard time believing MSU will score enough for this game to clear the 52.5 point Game Total.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (Open to Now)
· Alabama +600 to +375
· Ohio State +700 to +375
· Georgia +500 to +650
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.0%
· Texas 11.3%
· Georgia 11.3%
Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 17.9%
· Georgia 16.1%
· Miami 10.7%
Biggest Liabilities
· Tennessee
· Ohio State
· Miami
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Quarterback matchup for Michigan State @ Oregon
· Michigan State: The Spartans started out 2-0 after winning a 27-24 nailbiter against Maryland in Week 2 where they gained 484 total yards as QB Aidan Chiles averaged a robust 9.6 yards per attempt for his career-high 363 passing yards. However, in Week 4 we saw Chiles regress considerably by completing 48% of his throws with an unsightly three interceptions and a dirt-low 35.5 NFL passer rating. MSU’s 57.6% completion rate ranks 105th nationally while they’re coming in at 79th in pass success rate. But the big, glaring issue is Chiles’ 5.3% interception rate that rates 128th in the country. He has done a commendable job trying to stretch the field vertically, with 20 of his completions going for 20+ yards, but the 5-to-9 TD/INT ratio needs to stabilize quickly or MSU is going to be in for a long inaugural B10 campaign.
· Oregon: QB Dillon Gabriel burst on the national scene following the harrowing injury to Mackenzie Milton’s knee, throwing for 7,221 passing yards with a 61-to-11 TD/INT ratio over his first two seasons running the UCF offense. After getting injured himself in 2021 and taking a redshirt, Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma where he thrived under OC Jeff Lebby, earning a pristine 91st percentile passing grade in 2023. Gabriel then headed to Oregon this year for his 6th, and hopefully final, campaign. So far, so good on that front, as Gabriel overcame seven sacks in the first two games to complete a sensational 81% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 90th% passing grade for the undefeated Ducks. Oregon is outscoring opponents by an average score of 40-20 and is well on their way to another 40+ PPG season on offense.
Betting trends & recent stats
- While Oregon boasts a prolific offense that ranks 4th overall, they are 1-4 ATS dating back to last season when their opponent scored 22+ points. They are also 10-6 ATS when favorites in that span.
- The Ducks offensive line is allowing a miniscule 18.4% pressure rate that ranks 9th nationally, but they rank 106th with a 27% sack per pressure rate. On the bright side, OU hasn’t allowed a sack in either of the last two games so perhaps they’ve plugged the leaks.
- Michigan State is 5-3 ATS when allowing less than five explosive passes, and 2-7 ATS when allowing more than five explosive passes since 2023.
- The Spartans 26th ranked defense has done exceptional work against the run, ranking 27th in rush success rate allowed and 23rd in EPA/Rush.
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