Maryland started 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA, with a 27-24 loss to Michigan State where Maryland only had a 10% win expectancy. Though they lost 42-28 to undefeated Indiana, the Terps actually had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, equating to a moral victory of sorts. They were somewhat surprisingly outclassed by Northwestern who leveled UM 37-10, before bouncing back to squeeze out a 29-28 win over USC. As usual, HC Mike Locksley’s offense is a pass-slated group that ranks top-10 in both passing rate and completion rate (69.5%). A strong linebacker group that ranks 11th in havoc rate bolsters a credible run defense that ranks 19th in yards per successful rush and eighth in yards after contact allowed.
Minnesota took a tough beat in a Week 1 19-17 loss to North Carolina where they had a 86% win expectancy, then rattled off a pair of shutouts over FCS Rhode Island and Nevada. However, then they took a 31-14 smacking at the hands of Iowa before traveling to @Michigan where they lost a close 27-24 coin flip. With Minnesota HC PJ Fleck feeling the pressure of starting 0-3 against P4 opponents, Minnesota won a dramatic 27-24 nailbiter against USC, providing us a classic HC Fleck snap-session on the refs as the game winded down. The Gophers then hopped on a plane to complete their first ever “SoCal Sweep” and took down @UCLA 21-17. UM is 5-2 ATS and has a penchant for producing one-score games, which makes for great TV.
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Game Details and How to watch Maryland @ Minnesota live
· Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Huntington Bank Stadium
· City: Minneapolis, MN
· TV/Streaming: FS1
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Game odds for Maryland & Minnesota
The latest odds as of Thursday night courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Minnesota (-185), Maryland (+150)
- Spread: Minnesota 4.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
This game opened Minnesota -2.5 but is now trading between -4 to -4.5 depending on the book. The moneyline dropped with Minnesota at -205 and moved down slightly to a market best -175 with a low of -195. Maryland went from +170 to a best price of +158 and a low of +143. The total was set perfectly at 46.5 right from the jump and hasn’t budged since Monday.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Minnesota just defeated a USC program that is somewhat similar to Maryland in terms of scheme and competencies. Four of Minnesota’s five games have been decided by one score or less, and Maryland has the offensive chops to keep pace. I lean Maryland with the +4.5 points.”
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BetMGM Heisman odds
Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200
· Cam Ward +20000, +240
· Travis Hunter +3500, +1800
Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.2%
· Cam Ward 8.4%
Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.2%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.3%
· Cam Ward 8.8%
Quarterback matchup for Maryland @ Minnesota
- Minnesota: A grad transfer from the University of New Hampshire, Brosmer was a heralded Second Team AP FCS All-American and Walter Payton Award Finalist last season before making his way to Minnesota. He’s completing 67.5% of his passes, which ranks 13th nationally, with a very respectable 77th% PFF passing grade. Though he’s piloting an efficient passing attack that ranks 34th in success rate, the Gophers rank a dismal 132nd in passing explosiveness and 118th in pass plays of 20+ yards. Just 10.7% of his pass attempts have been downfield though, so he’s not being asked to stretch the field that often.
- Maryland: Billy Edwards Jr. beat out NC State transfer MJ Morris for the starting job and has excelled in the role, completing a laudable 69.5% of his throws for 2,112 passing yards and a 13-to-4 ratio while recording an 87.2 PFF offensive grade that ranks as the 13th highest mark among Power Four signal callers. Edwards has been getting the ball out of his hands in a brisk 2.22s on average, which is the second fastest release time in FBS. Similar to his counterpart Brosmer, Edwards is leading a rather conservative passing attack that ranks 122nd in explosive pass rate, but also 20th with a 1.4% interception rate that rarely puts their defense in a bad spot.
Trends & recent stats for Minnesota and Maryland
- Minnesota has allowed three touchdowns on 111 completions, which is the second-best completion/TD rate in FBS. Texas tops the list by allowing one passing touchdown on 121 completions.
- Minnesota is targeting their running backs in the pass game 8.4 times per game, sixth-most in FBS. UTEP currently leads the nation with 10.7 RB receiving targets per game.
- Maryland wide receivers have been targeted 208 times this year, the fourth-most among Power Four wideouts. Minnesota has allowed 977 receiving yards so far, second fewest among Big Ten defenses.
- The Terps’ pass defense has been a notch down from recent seasons, ranking 111th with 21% of completions of 20+ yards and 107th in yards per successful dropback (16.2 yards).
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