Illinois HC Brett Bielema isn’t shying away from hyping the big matchup, flinging incendiary words about Penn State’s “white out” tradition in Happy Valley. He’s clearly feeling bullish after dispatching Kansas and Nebraska in hard fought, one-score victories with the Illini ranked 19th nationally. In typical HC Bielema fashion, they’ve played pretty clean games, ranking 2nd in FBS with a +7.0 in turnover margin and 9th with a 14% 3-and-out rate on offense. Illinois’ stifling pass defense is allowing just 4.4 net yards per attempt (14th) and ranks 24th in EPA/dropback. However, their defense is 78th in rush success rate and 108th in stuff rate, indicating a potential weakness for Penn State, who ranks 5th overall at 13.4 yards per successful rush, to exploit.
Penn State batted around a respectable West Virginia team before a slight 34-27 misstep against Bowling Green in a game where PSU still had a 99% win expectancy despite being a one score affair. They’re once again excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking 6th in offensive EPA/Play and first in Yards Per dropback (11.1). Defensively PSU is allowing 3.0 yards per rush (6th) with a 51% completion (9th), but they’re susceptible to big pass plays ranking 80th in completion rate of 20+ yards (17%). It’s a familiar trend for James Franklin’s PSU teams - handle business against the non-Michigan/OSU portions of their schedule but ultimately fail to crest the B10 mountaintop.
We discussed this matchup and the rest of the college slate for Week 5 on this week’s episode of Bet the EDGE: The College Football Takeover.
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Game Details and How to watch Illinois @ Penn State live Saturday Night
- Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
- Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Location: Beaver Stadium
- City: State College, PA
- TV/Streaming: NBC
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Latest Game odds for Illinois @ Penn State - Week 5
The latest odds as of Thursday afternoon via:
· Moneyline: Penn State -900, Illinois +600
· Spread: Penn State -17.5
· Over/Under: 47.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The game opened at PSU -18 and has held steady with BetMGM hanging it at 17.5, but other books floating -18.5 out there. Either way, the hook has remained above the key number of 17 throughout. There’s very little variance in the game total market, as 47.5 is the overwhelming consensus number at time of publishing. The moneyline opened at a massive PennState -1,600, while Illinois +900 has unfortunately cratered to +600.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) likes the visitors getting more than a handful of points.
“With strong showings against Nebraska and Kansas, and a veteran-led offense that plays conservatively and avoids costly turnovers, I think Illinois is capable of keeping this game within the 17.5 spread, so I’m taking the Illini and the points.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Texas +550 to +500
· Alabama +900 to +800
· Tennessee +1600 to +1200
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.0%
· Texas 11.3%
· Georgia 11.3%
Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 17.9%
· Georgia 16.1%
· Miami 10.7%
Quarterback matchup for Illinois @ Penn State
· Illinois: Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer has significantly upgraded his play in his second season as Illinois’ signal caller, going from a 69th percentile PFF offensive grade in 2023 to 87.2 through four games this season which ranks 12th in FBS thus far. Sporting a pristine 84.7% adjusted completion rate (3rd in FBS), Altmyer is the only quarterback in the nation to have thrown 10 touchdown passes or more with zero interceptions. If there’s a knock on his profile so far, it’s that the Illini rank 78th in passing explosiveness and 97th in yards per successful dropback. However, that’s mostly a product of the risk-averse system HC Bielema runs, with Illinois ranking 103rd with only 10% of their throws going 20+ yards downfield.
· Penn State: Highly-touted prep prospect QB Drew Allar (6’5/241) evoked comparisons to Josh Allen due to his frame and arm strength. He has drastically improved both the accuracy (60%-to-71% completion rate) and magnitude (6.7 YPA-to-12.6) of his passes this season while still maintaining a risk-averse 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio. The play of his receivers has elevated as well, with PSU dropping just one pass through the first three games (2.4% drop rate) as opposed to the ghastly 10.7% drop rate he dealt with last season. Allar is throwing downfield more often too, ranking 10th nationally with 11.4 air yards per target. A lot of that stems from his sky-high usage rate within the 11-19 yard range, as Allar ranks 4th in FBS with 25% of his passes occurring in the mid-range.
Illinois and Penn State trends & recent stats
- Illinois’ 48th-ranked rush defense had better be ready to battle up front, as the Illini are 3-8 ATS when allowing 100+ rushing yards dating back to the beginning of last season. Conversely, Penn State is 11-4 ATS when they run for 120+ yards over the same time frame.
- Winning the turnover battle is imperative if Illinois wants to cover this spread, as they are 3-8 ATS with an even turnover margin since 2023.
- Penn State is 9-1 ATS when allowing less than 200 passing yards, the third-highest cover rate among Power Four programs.
- Running the ball on Penn State is vital for the purposes of this projection, as the Nittany Lions are 1-3 ATS when allowing 100+ rushing yards. They are also 0-4 ATS when allowing 22+ points since 2023.
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