College football has tripled the size of its Playoff field and, with that one move, it exponentially increased the angst and arguments related to the teams that should make it.
On Sunday, the selection committee will unveil the first official 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. We’ll see four teams earn first-round byes, four other teams designated as first-round hosts and four teams simply happy to have snuck into the field at all.
The expanded CFP means more teams, more games and also more confusion. The rules regarding seeding and scheduling are new and significantly more complicated than they were in the past. So, we’re here to help simplify it all.
Ranking vs. seeding
The most important difference with the new system as opposed to the four-team CFP era is that one team’s seed might not be the same as its ranking. The field is still chosen and ranked by a 13-member selection committee that meets weekly over the final six weeks of the season, using the criteria that has previously been established. But in the four-team era, the Playoff field was simply made up of the top four teams in the final rankings. Now, it’s more complicated, because the top four seeds in the final bracket are required to be conference champions.
The five conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee receive automatic berths to the CFP. The final seven spots go to the highest-ranked at-large teams. There is no cap on the number of spots one conference can receive.
Because there are now just four power conferences (the Big Ten, the SEC, the ACC and the Big 12), having five AQ spots for conference champions guarantees one spot for the Group of Five every year. It’s possible that one of the five highest-ranked champions could be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12. If that happens, the champion slides in as the No. 12 seed in the final bracket.
But because the top four seeds have to be champions of four different leagues, it’s certainly possible that we’ll see the SEC runner-up and the Big Ten runner-up ranked ahead of the champions of the ACC and the Big 12. That’s where it gets confusing, as Penn State could be ranked No. 3 if it loses to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game ... but seeded sixth (because it’d be bumped down a few seed lines to make space for the presumed ACC champion as the No. 3 seed and either the Big 12 champion or Mountain West champion as the No. 4 seed.
This weekend, the committee will first rank its top 25 teams first, then it will plug the automatic qualifiers (conference champions) into the bracket as well as the at-large teams. The committee won’t modify its rankings to avoid rematches between teams that played during the regular season. And there’s no re-seeding after the full bracket is set.
Top four seeds
The top four conference champions will receive first-round byes. Seeds 5-8 will host first-round games on campus (or at sites nearby that they’ve designated to be their home fields for the games). No. 5 will host No. 12, No. 6 will host No. 11, and so on. The four first-round games this year will take place on Friday, Dec. 20 and Saturday, Dec. 21. One game will be played on Friday, and three games will be played on Saturday.
Because the top four seeds will all be conference champions, the bracket is expected to look a little weird — and it’s not going to be truly balanced because seeds 1-4 won’t actually be the four highest ranked teams of the 12 in the field. It’s quite possible that the No. 5 seed is the best spot in the bracket, because that team will get to host a first-round game against the No. 12 seed and, if it wins, then play the No. 4 seed. That path could mean two games against the two weakest conference champions for a spot in the national semifinals.
Conference championship game upsets can also drastically change the makeup of the bracket. For example, looking at upsets in 2022, 11-2 Clemson, ranked seventh in the final CFP rankings, would have actually been the No. 3 seed under this model. And 10-3 Utah, ranked eighth, would have been the No. 4 seed. Both teams would get a bye, while TCU (ranked third but not a conference champion), Ohio State (ranked fourth but not a conference champion) and Alabama (ranked fifth but not a conference champion) would all be hosting first-round games. Again, the most confusing part is the fact that ranking does not necessarily equal seeding.
Notre Dame’s path to the Playoff
Notre Dame, of course, does not play in a conference. The Fighting Irish are ineligible to receive a top four seed (and subsequent bye), because those are required to go to conference champions. But this is a tradeoff that Notre Dame is more than happy to make to maintain its independence while still ensuring access to the national championship.
The Irish are off during conference championship weekend anyway, so they essentially get a preemptive bye, plus they still get to host games in South Bend, Ind., if they’re in the 5-8 seed range. Then-Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick was part of the four-person working group that came up with this format in the first place, so of course it’s more than palatable for the Irish.
Based on the committee’s penultimate set of rankings this week, Notre Dame is all but assuredly going to be hosting a first-round game later this month.
Later rounds, games and sites
Quarterfinals will be played at bowl sites and will take place around New Year’s Eve/Day. The Rose Bowl, which loves its designated time slot on Jan. 1 and its subsequent sunsets, is scheduled to host a quarterfinal on Jan. 1 for this season and next. It has asked the CFP if it can be removed from the semifinal rotation and remain as a quarterfinal host on New Year’s Day moving forward.
This year, the first quarterfinal will be played at the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31, followed by games at the Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
Semifinal games will be played roughly a week to week-and-a-half after the quarters. The semifinals this year will be played on Thursday, Jan. 9 (at the Orange Bowl) and Friday, Jan. 10 (at the Cotton Bowl). The national championship game will be the latest it has ever been played — on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. The trophy will be handed out at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
But before the sport crowns a champion, there’s a lot at stake for individual conferences. According to the CFP, the 12 teams that make the field earn their conferences $4 million each. Conferences then bring in another $4 million per team that reaches the quarterfinals. Each semifinalist earns $6 million more for its league, and the two finalists earn another $6 million apiece. That’s one of the key reasons behind the politicking we’ve seen from the various commissioners over the past week or so. Obviously, they want their best teams to have a chance to play for a national title. But they also want to bring in revenue to help support all of the teams in their conference moving forward.
