Texas have run roughshod over the first half of the schedule, posting a staggering +37 points per game scoring margin. Oklahoma proved no match for the Longhorns and were easily dispatched to the tune of a 34-3 thrashing. The run game has been efficient (4th in success rate), but lacks big play ability, ranking 94th in yards per successful rush. Defensively the Longhorns’ secondary has been elite, rating 1st in EPA per dropback and second in pass success rate. Their run defense has been slightly above average but not exceptional, rating 68th in rushing success rate and 94th in opportunity rate.
Georgia has bounced back from their 41-34 loss to Alabama where the Bulldogs had arguably the worst first-half performance of the last four years, beating Auburn and Mississippi State fairly easily though MSU managed to ring up a garbage time-enhanced 31 points. Georgia will need to tighten up a leaky secondary that ranks 72nd in yards per dropback and 92nd in allowing explosiveness, or else Texas’ powerful pass attack could rain points from above all day long. UGA QB Carson Beck is no slouch either of course, as the Dawgs rank 18th in EPA/dropback and 17th in passing success rate.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Georgia @ Texas
- Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
- Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Site: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- City: Austin, Texas
- TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Game odds for Georgia @ Texas
The latest odds as of Thursday afternoon:
- Moneyline: Texas (-200), Georgia (+165)
- Spread: Texas -4.5
- Over/Under: 55.5 points
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM
We have seen major line movement from the Texas -1.5 opening to it’s current range of -4.5 to -5.5. Following that trend, the moneyline has spiked from Texas -135 to a current high of -220 and low of -198. The total has been more stable, but still saw an increase from 55 to a high of 56.5 points where it sits now.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Texas’ defense has been virtually impenetrable so far, but Georgia is clearly the best offense they will have faced. It’s hard to bet against UT at home in this spot since they look like the most complete team in the nation, but the time to grab Texas under -3 or at -135 has passed and now you’re looking at -200+. Even so, I still lean Texas -5 against a somewhat vulnerable UGA defense.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200
Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%
Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.9%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
· Cam Ward 7.8%
Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava
Quarterback matchup for Georgia @ Texas
- Texas: Quinn Ewers held off the Manning Dynasty to win the starting gig out of camp, but after piloting a pair of dominant victories against Colorado State and Michigan, he sustained an injury in Week 3 vs. UTSA, giving way to Arch for a short trial-run. Manning proceeded to throw four touchdowns in relief, starting the next two games and accruing 900 passing yards, a 9-to-2 ratio and a sparkling 90.4 PFF offensive grade. Ewers returned last week completing 20-of-29 passes for 199 yards and a 1-to-1 ratio as UT cruised to an easy 34-3 victory. While he didn’t light up the scoreboard, Ewers looked the part and appears ready to go for this weekend.
- Georgia: While QB Carson Beck has been very good thus far, completing 67.6% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15-to-5 ratio through six games. However, his 84.2 PFF offensive grade is a noticeable dropoff from Beck’s sterling 91.5 overall grade in 2023. To compound matters he threw three interceptions against Alabama three games ago, and another two last week versus Mississippi State. Texas ranks 13th nationally with a 4.2% interception rate, so Beck cannot afford to be so careless with his throws or Georgia will be left struggling to keep pace with Texas’ potent offense.
Trends & recent stats for Georgia @ Texas
- Georgia WR Arian Smith ranks 3rd among Power Four conference wideouts with 17.4% of his receptions going for 40+ yards. Alabama freshman sensation Ryan Williams leads the P4 with a gaudy 30.4% explosive play rate. Conversely UGA WR Dominic Lovett has accrued 20+ yards on just 3-of-27 throws (11%), which is the third-lowest mark among SEC wide receivers.
- Georgia is averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this year, which ranks 15th in FBS. Texas has allowed just one passing touchdown all season, which ranks number one in the country. (Memphis #2 with 2 TDs allowed)
- While opening day RB1 Jaydon Blue has been targeted 24 times this season, most among SEC RBs, he fumbled twice against Mississippi State and was the RB2 to Tre Wisner last week vs. OKL. Wisner responded by logging 13 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown, while Blue managed just 30 yards on 10 totes.
- Texas WR Isaiah Bond injured an ankle last week against Oklahoma, but has logged practice time this week and is considered questionable to play. True freshman phenom WR Ryan Wingo accounted for 74 of Texas’ 406 total yards last week and would see an uptick in usage if Bond were out.
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