How good could Notre Dame’s offense be this season? In polling nine media members of who they thought would be the most impactful players in the 2023 season, no one slotted Wake Forest quarterback transfer Sam Hartman lower than No. 2. Six of the nine ballots put Hartman ahead of a certain first-round NFL draft pick in junior left tackle Joe Alt, someone who could be a top-five pick and is roundly considered one of the 10 best players in college football right now.
Every ballot had either Hartman-Alt or Alt-Hartman as its top two.
That is not simply because Hartman is the quarterback. Last year, Tyler Buchner finished only No. 6 in this exercise.
Hartman has experience, records and an accurate arm, things Buchner lacked to enough of an extent to render some uncertainty about his 2022, long before he injured his shoulder against Marshall.
If Hartman genuinely impacts this season more than Alt does, more than preseason All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison does, more than bellcow running back Audric Estimé does, more than two-time leading tackler JD Bertrand does, then Notre Dame’s offense could be good enough to raise this season’s ceiling.
No. 5 JD Bertrand, fifth-year linebacker — 181 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 5, low of No. 9.
How good could Notre Dame’s offense be this season?
Bertrand has led the Irish in tackling each of the last two years. In the two years combined, his 183 tackles were 70 more tackles than the combined total of the No. 2 tackles (Drew White in 2021, Jack Kiser in 2022).
If Bertrand leads Notre Dame in tackles for a third straight season, he will be just the third player to accomplish that in the last 50 years, joining Manti Te’o (2010-12) and Bob Crable (1979-81).
Yet Bertrand finished fifth in this polling.
No. 4 Audric Estimé, junior running back — 198 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 3, low of No. 5.
How good could Notre Dame’s offense be this season?
Estimé came a turf-toe frustration away from rushing for 1,000 yards last season — 11 total carries for 74 yards in two games in mid-October stood out, as did six carries for 43 yards in the regular-season finale at USC — finishing with 920 yards on 156 carries.
Now his stablemates, Logan Diggs (to LSU) and Chris Tyree (to Irish receiver), are no longer going to pull 265 carries away from him. Notre Dame has a bounty of other complementary running backs, but everything has set up for Estimé to rush 200-plus times at a similar yards per carry as last season, suggesting he could crack 1,200 yards and score a dozen touchdowns.
Not a word of that is a reach. Yet Estimé finished fourth in this polling.
Hey @statsowar, remember when yesterday I said Audric Estimé makes "bulls in china shops look small"?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 2, 2023
Photo courtesy of @mattfreemanISD pic.twitter.com/cnV5EtD791
No. 3 Benjamin Morrison, sophomore cornerback — 204 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 3, low of No. 4.
How good could Notre Dame’s offense be?
Benjamin Morrison intercepted six passes as a freshman, including the one returned for a touchdown that dramatically sealed the Irish upset of Clemson. And head coach Marcus Freeman expects Morrison to be better this year.
“What I’ve talked with Ben about is that there is no finish line,” Freeman said last week. “His goal probably as a freshman was, come in and play for Notre Dame. He ended up starting and ended up being a freshman All-American. …
“For him, it’s what’s the next challenge for you? How much are you going to continue to improve your craft? … Are you going to come in every day and choose hard and do the things it takes to become a better football player? Because there is no finish line. You just have to have constant improvement.”
An improved Morrison could single-handedly cut the field by a third for opposing quarterbacks, could at least slow Ohio State’s star Marvin Harrison Jr. and could capitalize on a rash decision by USC star quarterback Caleb Williams.
Yet Morrison finished third in this polling.
No. 2 Joe Alt, junior left tackle — 219 points, three first-place votes, unanimous inclusion, low of No. 2.
How good could Notre Dame’s offense be?
The Irish enjoy the best offensive tackle in the country. Joe Alt is as surefire an early NFL draft pick in the spring as Michael Mayer was a surefire pick last year and as Kyle Hamilton was a surefire first-rounder two years ago.
These rankings are predictions of expected impact, an attempt at predicting the future. If they were based on past impact, on résumé, then Alt would presumably be ranked No. 1.
Last year he posted a 99.0 pass-block efficiency score, per Pro Football Focus. You do not need to understand any of the math to recognize it is absurd.
Yet Alt received only a third of the first-place votes in this balloting.
2023 PFF College 50: Players 10-1⭐️ pic.twitter.com/ndXX0NtK0i
— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 4, 2023
No. 1 Sam Hartman, Wake Forest transfer quarterback — 222 points, six first-place votes, unanimous inclusion, low of No. 2.
Hartman is how good the Notre Dame offense could be this year. And that is meant both ways.
If Hartman’s strong arm and deep touch unleash sophomore receiver Tobias Merriweather downfield, then the Irish will have a threat they have not enjoyed since Will Fuller ran wild. If Hartman throws four interceptions in one game for the third and fourth times in his career, then Notre Dame could lose to North Carolina State or Pittsburgh in a more frustrating manner than even last year’s Marshall defeat.
There is plenty of space between those two outcomes, but the extremes are possible as the Irish will push downfield. Offensive coordinator Gerad Parker hardly tried to talk around it last week.
“Knowing everything we say and do is going to be monitored by everyone, we’re going to play to our strengths and play to our quarterback’s strengths,” Parker said. “[Pushing downfield] is something he does very well.”
When Notre Dame faces Navy in 22 days in Dublin, the first game of the entire college football season, some will shrug their shoulders if Hartman connects with Merriweather or Tyree or sophomore tight end Holden Staes downfield, explaining it away as an overmatched Midshipmen defense.
That will be a valid counterargument, but some throws can be seen as successful regardless of opponent. If Hartman offers those on Aug. 26, then that will be why he finished first in this balloting.
“I think a lot of what I got from the conversations with the QBs who came before me is just understanding the magnitude of this program and the magnitude of this place." — #NotreDame QB @sam_hartman10 @insideNDsports Free storyhttps://t.co/p0OrWkSMtw
— Eric Hansen (@EHansenND) August 4, 2023
COUNTING DOWN THE IRISH 2023
No. 25 Jaden Greathouse, freshman receiver — 18 points, four out of nine ballots, high of No. 17.
No. 24 Holden Staes, sophomore tight end — 21 points, five out of nine ballots, high of No. 18.
No. 23 Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Ohio State transfer defensive end — 26 points, five ballots, high of No. 17.
No. 22 Thomas Harper, Oklahoma State transfer safety — 33 points, five ballots, high of No. 16.
No. 21 Jaden Mickey, sophomore cornerback — 34 points, five ballots, high of No. 14.
No. 20 Jadarian Price, sophomore running back — 54 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 14.
T-No. 17 Marist Liufau, fifth-year linebacker — 72 points, eight ballots, high of No. 10.
T-No. 17 Mitchell Evans, junior tight end — 72 points, eight ballots, high of No. 9.
T-No. 17 Billy Schrauth, sophomore left guard — 72 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 15.
No. 16 Chris Tyree, senior receiver — 94 points, nine ballots, high of No. 6.
No. 15 Tobias Merriweather, sophomore receiver — 96 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 11.
No. 14 Zeke Correll, fifth-year center — 106 points, eight of nine ballots, high of No. 10.
T-No. 12 Howard Cross, fifth-year defensive tackle — 118 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 10.
T-No. 12 Xavier Watts, senior safety — 118 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 8.
No. 11 Jordan Botelho, senior defensive end— 121 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 7.
No. 10 Rylie Mills, senior defensive tackle — 123 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 7.
No. 9 Jack Kiser, fifth-year linebacker — 135 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 6.
No. 8 Cam Hart, fifth-year cornerback — 151 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 6
.No. 7 Jayden Thomas, junior receiver — 162 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 6.
No. 6 Blake Fisher, junior right tackle — 180 points, unanimous inclusion, high of No. 4.
RELATED READING: Counting Down the Irish 2023: Others Receiving Votes
25 to 21, led by examples of modern college football roster construction
20 to 16, featuring Notre Dame’s speed at its skill positions
15 to 11, a lower defensive line focus than in years past
10 to 6, here comes Notre Dame’s offense
The voters, generously giving their time and insights in this annual exercise …
Michael Bryan, 18 Stripes
Greg Flammang, Irish Sports Daily
Tyler James, Inside ND Sports
Andrew McGuinness, The Observer
Tim Murray, Vegas Stats & Information Network, but more pertinent to his exercise, an irrational Notre Dame fan
Tom Noie, South Bend Tribune
Tim O’Malley, Irish Illustrated
Pete Sampson, The Athletic
Josh Vowles, One Foot Down
