Vaughn Dalzell breaks down five bets in four games between Penn State vs Indiana, Purdue vs Nebraska, plus two homecomings between UCF vs WVU and Louisville vs Duke.
Indiana at Penn State (-31.5): O/U 45.5
Indiana will go to Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost 20-12 to Ohio State, which sounds like a recipe for disaster.
We have to remember, as a favorite, Penn State is undefeated ATS this season, so the -32 is a good play in my book, and, so is the Indiana Team Total Under 6.5 for +100 odds.
Penn State held Indiana scoreless in 2021 when the Hoosiers visited and PSU already shut out UMass and Iowa at home, plus allowed 7 points to Delaware. Penn State held Ohio State to 20 points in Columbus compared to Indiana who scored 14 points at home last week versus Rutgers.
I think this is all Penn State so lay the -32 (-110) with Penn State and fade Indiana and take the Team Total Under 6.5 (+120).
Michigan is on a bye week and the only loss on our Team Total bets versus the Wolverines came against Indiana, who required some trickery.
What better team to make our money back on than a Penn State team off its first loss of the season and coming home against an offense like Indiana’s?
Pick: Penn State -31.5 (1u), Indiana Team Total Under 6.5 (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Purdue at Nebraska (-2.5): O/U 39.5
Lately, Nebraska’s injury woes have worsened so badly that head coach Matt Rhule said he’s never seen a worse injury situation.
The Cornhuskers lost WRs Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, Marcus Washington, and Billy Kemp, RBs Gabe Ervin Jr. and Rahmir Johnson, plus three starting OL last week versus Northwestern. That’s pretty bad.
Luckily for Purdue, the Boilermakers are coming off a much-needed bye week after playing Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State over the last four games. The Boilermakers went 1-3 in that stretch and are 2-5 on the season with a few winnable games left, this being one of them.
Hudson Card and Devin Mockabee have been a reliable QB-RB duo all season for Purdue and Ryan Walters’ defense could have its best showing since holding Illinois to 19 points on 9/30.
I like the Boilermakers here. Purdue will be a part of the ML Sprinkles segment on the NBC College Football Saturday Show at +110 odds, so tune in for more. The official side will be Purdue +2.5 at -110 odds, good down to +1.
Pick: Purdue +2.5 (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
West Virginia at UCF (-7): O/U 60.0
UCF has not won a Big 12 game yet, but they are favored in their first conference game, at home versus West Virginia, and it’s also homecoming, which I believe is telling.
The Knights started the season 3-0 with wins over Kent State, Boise State, and Villanova. Once Big 12 play started, UCF dropped contests to Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
UCF came off the bye week versus Oklahoma and nearly upset the undefeated Sooners at Oklahoma (31-29). The Knights now get to come home to West Virginia, who is 1-2 on the road with a 3-point win over Houston on a last-second Hail Mary -- that one still hurts.
The Mountaineers should be winless on the road and the Knights are yearning for not only a Big 12 win but a home win, which hasn’t come in over a month (9/23).
UCF will be the highest-rated pass efficiency offense that WVU has faced this season, which was previously Houston. I like the UCF Knights to cover the -7 at -105 odds.
Pick: UCF -7 (1u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Duke at Louisville (-5.5): O/U 46.0
Louisville is coming off a bye week following its first loss of the season coming at Pitt. The Cardinals are at home and celebrating homecoming versus an opponent that is quite fatigued.
Duke is coming off games versus Notre Dame and NC State, plus a road game at Florida State, which makes for one of the most challenging three-game stretches for any ACC team.
This matchup at Louisville is a back-to-back road game for Duke, plus the Blue Devils play on Thursday back at home against Wake Forest, so they have a short week ahead of them too.
This is a terrible spot for Duke. With injury issues at QB to Riley Leonard, the Blue Devils are vulnerable and fatigued. Leonard threw for 69 yards on 7-of-16, while backup Henry Belin IV went 1-of-6 for 7 yards against Florida State.
Louisville has won all three meetings versus Duke by 10 or more points and the Cardinals can make it four-straight.
I laid the -4.5 and -5.5 at -110 odds on Louisville. This will climb to -7 to -7.5 if Leonard is out, but I’d rather him play banged up.
Pick: Louisville -5.5 (1.5u)
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 43-24-1 (64.1%) +17.7 units
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