Last week was the first time as a Notre Dame analyst this season that I felt completely unsure of how to handicap one of the Fighting Irish’s games. Bringing my Notre Dame handicapping record down to 6-2.
Notre Dame entered last week’s game in the middle of one of the more brutal stretches in College Football. They played Ohio State, then traveled to Durham to take on a really good Duke squad, followed up with a road game to take on ACC Championship hopeful Louisville, and concluded by hosting the Pac-12 runners-up USC. All without a bye week to get their team mentally and physically reset. Brutal
USC at Notre Dame | Spread: Notre Dame -2.5 | Total: 60.5
As mentioned, Notre Dame has gone through a brutal stretch of games. The scheduling alone is enough to make any team quit. However, in those games, all of them were hard-fought battles, basically until the game’s last play.
It doesn’t matter how talented the team is; there’s an expectation that injury and fatigue are due to set in with tough scheduling like that. Against Louisville, they looked tired. Their front seven, which has had their way with teams all season, wasn’t getting nearly enough pressure. And their stout offensive line couldn’t get enough push to run for more than 60 yards on the ground.
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USC isn’t without its flaws this season. They have arguably the best offense in all of College Football, led by the best player in football. Led by Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams, they are second in EPA offense and first in scoring offense this season.
However, the issue over the past two seasons has been their defense. So far this season, they are 61st in defensive success rate. The biggest issue they have faced is allowing teams to seemingly score at will. Being a National Championship contender and ranked 88th in net points per drive on defense will not get the job done.
When betting on this game, wanting to lay points with Notre Dame feels almost irresponsible. Their team has been through it. Not only are they in a tough schedule situation, but they haven’t been humming along offensively.
Sure, that could all change against this terrible defense of USC. However, this game is a coin flip. I don’t believe in this situation, on a neutral field, that Notre Dame is a 1-point favorite over USC.
This USC team only has two losses over the last season and a half. One to an excellent Utah team. One on the road, a place where Utah never loses. The other was in the Pac-12 Championship, where Williams got hurt.
To beat this Trojans team, you need perfection. I don’t think that with the state that Notre Dame is in right now, they have that perfection.
We could see the poor weather factor in the outcome, even making the game less high-scoring. Hence, the reason the total came down from 62.5 to 60.5. I don’t think the wind gusts will be high enough to make this a complete ground battle dogfight.
So, I’m putting my trust in Williams and this offense. Give me USC ML +125 against Notre Dame.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Bet: USC ML (+125)
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