As Notre Dame (5-2) collapsed in last week’s fourth quarter at Louisville, USC (6-0) was laying an egg to start a home game against Arizona. The Trojans found their footing before it was too late, before all intrigue for this weekend had been lost, but they took it to the absolute limit.
Could the No. 21 Irish learn from that 43-41 triple-overtime stressor? Luca Evans from the Orange County Register chimes in to help give an idea of what USC should look like this weekend in South Bend’s wind and rain.
Last weekend sure looked like it was going to take all the air out of this primetime game, with USC falling behind Arizona, 17-0. Of all the Trojans’ struggles this year, a deficit like that was unprecedented. USC had not yet trailed this season, in no small part a reflection of the lack of quality opponents thus far. The Wildcats got out to that lead while Notre Dame was collapsing at Louisville, so most Irish fans missed how it happened. Not looking for a play-by-play here, more broad strokes: What happened to the Trojans in that first 20 minutes on Saturday night?
LE: To put it plain and simple, in a truly strange development for USC, the offense ground to a halt against Arizona. For the entire first quarter, quarterback Caleb Williams looked pretty out of sync, and there was a clear reason why: Arizona was loading up the secondary with a ton of defensive backs in dollar coverages, also blitzing pretty smartly throughout the game.
That kept Williams off-balance for much of the first half in the passing game and eventually forced him to use his legs. Defensively, well, USC couldn’t stop Arizona on late-down situations and the secondary was getting shredded by Tetairoa McMillan. The tide shifted, completely, when Jacobe Covington stepped in and got a pick down 17-0 to set up USC in prime field position.
And then, of course, Caleb Williams did what Caleb Williams does. There is not much that needs to be asked about him. He is as complete a college quarterback as they come, and USC needs him to be. Let’s ask it this way: Have you realized yet how fortunate you are to watch that quality of play on a weekly basis? You might never see it again, quite frankly.
It dawned on me after the Colorado game, actually, that I — and the rest of the public — may be taking Williams slightly for granted. I almost compare it to Shohei Ohtani, where he’s such a unicorn who earns deserving widespread acclaim at any highlight moment, and yet there isn’t quite enough praise for how consistently incredible they perform. USC receiver Brenden Rice had a really good quote on this after the Colorado game:
“It won’t be until he leaves that people will really realize the greatness that they’re watching.”
Asked Lincoln Riley about perception of the defense and he delivered a very impassioned answer in which he said, basically, the media “had their mind made up” that at any sign of adversity, a change would need to be made.
— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans) October 11, 2023
Pretty interesting watch for #USC fans: pic.twitter.com/u186Ze7BHL
The Trojans need him to be this special, their receivers not as stellar as last year’s group, the offensive line sometimes exposing Williams. Mostly, they need him to outscore every opponent, because the USC defense is as porous as Saturday will be windy. (South Bend may see 20 mph northern winds this weekend.) Let’s turn this analysis on its head: What is a Trojan defensive strength?
The greatest strength on this defense, inarguably, is the line, where there’s certainly been strides made from last year. Georgia State transfer defensive end Jamil Muhammad and Georgia transfer defensive tackle Bear Alexander have been major difference-makers as transfers — Muhammad has six sacks in six games — and Wyoming transfer defensive end Solomon Byrd is having a breakout year off the edge.
While the Wildcats have moved up in public perception — to pull from SP+, Arizona is now No. 39 in the country, compared to No. 78 in the summer — the other five teams USC has already beaten have an average SP+ rank of 96.8. For context: Jacksonville State ranks No. 96, Stanford No. 97. Notre Dame’s five FBS opponents thus far have an average SP+ rank of 67.4, including Nos. 4 (Ohio State), 28 (Duke) and 20 (Louisville) in the last three weeks.
In fairness, those next four opponents are collectively looking a lot better already.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2023
Those preseason rankings for those four averaged 84.25.
Now, average 74.5.
I'm not saying USC is gonna be challenged, but, ya know, the schedule is never quite what you expect it to be. https://t.co/uBkY0YVhjg
What has that schedule allowed you to genuinely learn about USC this season that you were not already somewhat certain of in the preseason?
Frankly, I’m in my first year on the beat, and yet in overall perception I’ve found it surprising just how little seems to have changed from last year. There was an excess amount of hope and buzz around USC’s new-look defense in the preseason, built through extensive transfer-portal additions, and they’ve had opportunities to make statements but instead given up 28 to San Jose State and Arizona State and gotten absolutely trounced by Colorado and (at times) Arizona.
What I’ve genuinely learned: USC has major problems in its secondary, and with some injuries mounting, that’ll be a major issue against some truly dynamic offenses moving forward.
What are your biggest questions about the Trojans entering this weekend? Things that schedule was never going to reveal.
My biggest questions, in that vein:
— Can one of Ceyair Wright, Domani Jackson, Jacobe Covington or Prophet Brown step up to be a consistently viable cornerback alongside Christian Roland-Wallace?
— What’s the winning combination in USC’s linebacker group? Mason Cobb is entrenched when healthy, but Tackett Curtis has learned on the fly as a freshman and Eric Gentry/Raesjon Davis have made more plays when afforded opportunity — but haven’t gotten much of it recently.
— Can USC’s line hold their own against the best pass-rush they’ve likely seen so far this year?
In the case of the moveable object against the stoppable force, how do you expect USC to defend Notre Dame? That matchup of the struggling units may be more interesting than the quality Irish defense trying to stop the defending Heisman Trophy winner.
From guys’ comments this week, it seems like the defense is most keyed in on Audric Estimé, who USC players have a lot of respect for and will truly test some longstanding tackling issues on this Trojans defense. I would expect to see a lot of schemes/packages that bring up safeties like Jaylin Smith to be in position to make second-and-third level tackles to slow down Estime.
Caleb Williams has adopted a new “king vibes” celebration — and persona along with it.
— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans) October 12, 2023
He’ll have the chance for another crowning moment against Notre Dame Saturday, same as last year, but not without plenty of (defensive) pressure:https://t.co/GuEgsyHYWn
Is there a way to stop Williams?
There isn’t, but there is a blueprint to slow him from the very end of the Colorado game and Arizona first half: Mix together dollar schemes to slow the passing game and heavy blitzes.
Now, of course, that all requires linebackers and linemen to be adept in chasing Williams once he pulls down the ball, which isn’t an easy ask and led to three rushing touchdowns against Arizona. But the Wildcats’ first-half defensive effort certainly put them in position many times to win that game Saturday.
All that in mind, what do you expect Saturday night? Notre Dame looks like a 2.5-point favorite.
I hate to rely so heavily off ~vibes~ here, and on paper Notre Dame frankly comes in with better prospects, but USC — led by Lincoln Riley and Williams — have carried a noticeable public edge about them since the Arizona game. Hence, Riley’s comments defending the defense on Tuesday.
It just feels like USC has the opportunity for a statement game in South Bend, and I think if the defense can hold Notre Dame to sub-30, Caleb Williams and South Carolina transfer running back MarShawn Lloyd will be enough to eke out a win.
