Wake Forest has taken a step back this season, perhaps a few steps back. If the Demon Deacons (4-6) can win at Notre Dame and against Syracuse to end the season, they will slip into a bowl game. Even pull off just one upset and Wake Forest would almost certainly make a bowl game thanks to having the No. 8 academic progress rate in the FBS.
Should Irish fans be worried about such a surprise this weekend? Let’s ask Conor O’Neill, publisher of Deacon Illustrated.
DF: There are two clear dynamics to the Demon Deacons this season, the inverse of usual. Let’s start with the more notable, this disastrous offense. Pick your stat, it looks bad for Wake Forest. No. 120 in yards per play at 4.89. No. 112 in points per game at 20.5. Even before managing just six points and 163 yards in last week’s loss to North Carolina State, No. 123 in expected points added per offensive snap and No. 125 in EPA per dropback.
Every one of those numbers was stellar in years past, but to pull the most dramatic of them, Wake Forest had not averaged fewer than 31.8 points per game since 2016, finishing in the top 21 in four out of the last six seasons, those exceptions simply being No. 35 and No. 42, hardly worrisome. I could make an argument the improved defensive play that we will get to should have increased scoring this season, so falling to 20.5 points per game is that much more galling.
Besides Sam Hartman leaving and A.T. Perry heading to the NFL, what happened? Let’s challenge you: 280 characters or fewer.
CO: Characters not words? Yeesh.
O-line is a multi-year problem; just masked by perimeter skill. WR production has faded, allowing teams to load the box.
QB has been biggest issue, though. Mitch Griffis struggled in the role for myriad reasons. For the first time in Clawson’s 10 years, QB is a question mark.
Well done. I put that handicap on you because I realize answering that question has been your driving charge all season as Wake Forest has stumbled to this 4-6 showing. I have watched a handful of those games, but cannot say I have studied them thoroughly. 2-2 in one-score games is obviously not alarming. Is the 4-6 record deserved?
Oh, you want me to use the Snoop Pearson, “Deserve got nuthin’ to do wit it, jus’ his time, that’s all” line on you?
Honestly, the discussion is whether Wake’s record should be worse. The three-score comeback to win at Old Dominion saw the Monarchs drop an interception in the end zone and overthrow a deep ball that should’ve been, at worst, a 40-yard gain — and would’ve been an 80-yard score with a decent throw. The win against Pittsburgh was marked by Pitt doing just about everything wrong in the final two minutes after Santino Marucci threw an interception that should’ve sealed Wake’s fate.
Inversely, you’d say Wake Forest did what it needed to do to win at Duke until coughing up two turnovers and committing three 15-yard penalties in the fourth quarter. The Clemson loss … well, Wake Forest hung around. But it’s a one-score loss because of a late touchdown and with the Tigers playing prevent.
First time Wake Forest failed to score double digits since a 52-3 loss at Clemson in 2019.
— Conor O'Neill (@ConorONeill_DI) November 11, 2023
That game is also the last time Wake Forest failed to reach double-digit first downs (had 8 today; 5 that day in 2019).
Let’s stray toward Hartman for a moment. I suspect you have had more of an eye on Notre Dame this season than most years. What have you seen from him the last six games — beyond the stats of 201.8 passing yards per game with five touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt — that has surprised you based on what you watched closely from 2018 to 2022?
I kind of don’t know if it’s that much of a surprise.
Look, he’s a talented quarterback. Wake Forest certainly misses him. You’re not average if you throw 110 touchdown passes in a college career; nor are you average if you’re one of three quarterbacks in ACC history with 50 touchdowns (passing and rushing) in a season, with company being Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
But it’s not like consistency and ball security were staples of his time in Winston-Salem.
There’s not a good way to say this without coming off as a homer … but Hartman had better receivers when he was at Wake Forest. That is exacerbated when you remove Mitchell Evans and Jayden Thomas from his targets, which I think helps explain the last few weeks.
Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson on Notre Dame: "We certainly have a lot of respect for their quarterback and know what he's capable of."
— Les Johns (@Les_Johns) November 14, 2023
One more Hartman-focused question, the topic du jour around Notre Dame this week has been a seeming abandonment of play-action passes. I have been surprised by how much surprise there is over this, as it was my understanding in August that Hartman was uncomfortable with them, specifically with turning his back to the defense on a passing play when he wants to be gauging the coverage. In Clawson’s slow-mesh offense, that is pretty much never done, right? The slow-mesh itself is something of play-action setup while facing the defense, right? Am I over-simplifying this?
No, you’ve got that right.
When Wake’s offense is operated correctly, as Hartman became a master of in the last 2-3 years, the majority of its plays are play-action. And he’s never got his back to the field.
Trying to search my brain for a memory of a time when a Wake Forest has his back to the field and I’m not sure I have anything. That shouldn’t be the *only* reason Hartman can’t run those plays — his high school coach, Chad Grier, does wonders for QB development — but I can see a reason for some reticence.
Anyway, back to Wake Forest, now its defense. Woah! Let’s run through some of those same stats from earlier. No. 78 in yards allowed per play at 5.68. No. 55 in points per game at 24.4. Even before holding the Wolfpack to 24 points, No. 49 in defensive EPA , No. 41 in rush defense EPA, No. 57 in pass defense EPA. Maybe none of those are spectacular, but let’s again gauge the points per game in recent history.
It has been six years, last seen in 2016, since the Deacons held opponents to fewer than 28 points per game, never ranking higher than No. 76 in the country. And again, this paltry offense is gifting opponents possession and field position, so an argument could be made the scoreboard should be more abused.
Where did this defense come from?
The toughest pill to swallow if you’re a Wake Forest fan or on the staff, for that matter, is that if you paired this year’s defense with the offensive production of the last six seasons, you’re talking about a team with a floor of eight wins.
So go the ebbs and flows of a program, though.
The easiest explainer on Wake’s defense is that it’s Year Two under Brad Lambert as defensive coordinator. It was one thing for players in fall camp to tell us communication was smoother — I’ve heard that before — and it’s been another to see that come to fruition.
It also gives me an opening to say this: Wake’s defense has had more of the top-end talent for several years. Of the 12 draft picks in Clawson’s tenure, eight have been defensive players—including the only first-rounder (cornerback Kevin Johnson in 2015) and both second-rounders (safety Jessie Bates III in 2018 and defensive end Boogie Basham in 2021).
Depth has long been the issue on this side of the ball and partially because of talent development, partially because Wake’s offense has tempo limitations, those issues haven’t factored in as much this season.
Wake Forest's Senior Day was one to forget, giving up 3 touchdowns before it had a first down and failing to score in double digits for the first time since 2019.
— Conor O'Neill (@ConorONeill_DI) November 11, 2023
🔗https://t.co/LWpUgvTuul pic.twitter.com/6rcT7GbdaN
Admittedly, the only genuinely strong offense Wake Forest has faced, Florida State, hung 41 points. Not that Notre Dame has a strong offense — see those Hartman questions earlier — but how should the Irish attack this defense?
How many screens are too many?
That game was relatively competitive until FSU hit three screen passes in the second quarter that piled up 132 yards. Two of them were touchdowns — 29 yards on a Keon Coleman bubble, and 80 by running back Lawrence Toafili.
There might not even need to be that level of thinking, though. Wake Forest has given up 181 and 266 rushing yards to Duke and North Carolina State in the last two games.
With that in mind, and Notre Dame favored by 24.5 on Saturday, what do you expect?
Here’s where I balance out the homer take on the receivers, right?
I don’t know how Wake Forest keeps this competitive without winning the turnover margin by at least two. There also need to be advantages in special teams. Wake Forest is very much a team that needs to do whatever it can to compensate for the talent differential at certain matchups.
We’ll know a lot about Wake’s energy and psyche early. Last weekend was a no-show in the first quarter, and the defense was the only unit to right itself. In my experience, teams coming off games like that either come out firing in the next one or lay down. I think Wake’s leadership is strong enough that it’ll be the former; but I’m not confident enough to say that with any decisiveness.
Hint: 10.5
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 14, 2023
