We are mere days away from the unveiling of the first official 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. We think we know most of the teams that appear locked into the field, but we definitely do not know the correct order. And we don’t know if SMU will stay in if it were to lose to Clemson this weekend — CFP chair Warde Manuel himself said it’s possible the Mustangs drop behind Alabama, which is currently projected to be the last team into the field, if the Tigers automatically qualify as the ACC champion.
The ACC title game has the most intrigue because of the CFP selection committee’s inconsistent treatment of top teams after losses. Ohio State fell just four spots in the rankings after a loss to a middling Michigan team, while Miami dropped six spots after a loss to a 9-3 Syracuse team that is ranked in the top 25. SMU can take all the guesswork (and stress) out of the equation by simply beating Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday night. Or the Tigers can play spoiler, either as a bid thief that could knock out the last at-large team (Alabama) or essentially as the ACC’s replacement for SMU (if the Mustangs fall out of the bracket completely).
Ahead of Tuesday’s rankings release, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips told me and my colleagues on SiriusXM that teams safely in the bracket then should stay in, especially if they’re being compared to teams that aren’t playing (and risking a loss) this weekend. But we haven’t experienced any of this yet. We don’t know what the committee will or won’t do with the teams that lose games this weekend. That’s the top storyline I’m tracking.
Here’s what else I’m watching for ahead of Selection Sunday:
Can Boise State secure the No. 4 overall seed? The Broncos appear well-positioned to land a first-round bye as we sit here before kickoff of the Mountain West championship game. They’re ranked five spots ahead of the highest-ranked Big 12 team, so with a win over No. 20 UNLV, it stands to reason that Boise State would stay above the Arizona State-Iowa State winner — which would cause Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark to go nuclear, by the way. But either way, the Mountain West title game on Friday night should be one of the best games of championship weekend, and it’ll be a chance for Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to make his closing argument to voters. Heisman Trophy voting closes on Monday night. Neither Travis Hunter nor Cam Ward is in action this weekend.
Will Texas get its revenge against Georgia? The Longhorns have an opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season on Saturday in Atlanta. The two teams have gone in different directions since Georgia throttled Texas back in mid-October, with the Longhorns playing at a consistently high level on both sides of the ball and the Bulldogs riding the rollercoaster that is their season. Carson Beck is playing much better as of late, but you still never know which version of the quarterback you’ll get in any given game. Still, I think Texas will be better prepared for the Georgia defensive front, as will both of the quarterbacks. (I’d love to see a package or two in there for Arch Manning.) I think the Longhorns win and secure a first-round CFP bye.
Can Penn State upset Oregon and land the No. 1 overall seed? This is a pretty interesting matchup, one that most of us hadn’t thought a ton about before last weekend because we’d all thought Ohio State would beat Michigan. Alas. I can’t wait to see Penn State’s defense challenge Oregon’s offense, which is led by a potential Heisman Trophy finalist in quarterback Dillon Gabriel and an offensive line that was just named a finalist for the Joe Moore Award. NBC analyst Joshua Perry, my co-host on Rushing The Field, gives the edge to the Ducks’ skill-position players over the PSU secondary, and I tend to agree. I think Oregon will take care of business in Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting that a Penn State upset could catapult the Nittany Lions to the No. 1 overall seed. They’d be 11-1 with the best win in the country, which could be enough to jump the SEC champ.
A quick housekeeping note: I’ll have one final CFP projected bracket that will publish late Saturday night at the conclusion of all of the conference championship games. Then, we’ll reconvene after the official field is announced, and I’ll share my biggest takeaways and picks.
