College Football Playoff games will take place on campus for the very first time this weekend, as the 12-team College Football Playoff era officially begins.
Notre Dame will host Indiana on Friday night, followed by a triple-header of action — Penn State hosting SMU, Texas hosting Clemson, and Ohio State hosting Tennessee — on Saturday. Expect great games but also some cold temperatures in at least three of the four college towns.
Or simply cozy up at home with this preview and then watch the games from your couch. No judgment here!
Here’s how each team can win its first-round game:
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame, Friday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
How Notre Dame wins: Rely on the run game and rely on the elite defense. Basically, the Fighting Irish need to lean into their strengths. They’re healthier than they’ve been in weeks, with preseason All-American defensive tackle Howard Cross III back in the fold, but even with injuries, the defense has been dominant, particularly against the pass. (Notre Dame ranks third in FBS in passing defense, allowing just 157.9 pass yards per game, and seventh nationally in third-down defense.) The Irish will want to get out to a fast start; we still don’t know how Riley Leonard and the passing game would handle a situation in which they’re trailing by a couple of scores and they’ve got to rely on Leonard’s arm to get them back in a game. So, don’t let it get to that point. Get an early lead and control the game with Jeremiyah Love and co. on the ground. And apply a great deal of pressure on Indiana’s offensive line, which struggled against future pros in the past (Michigan and Ohio State).
How Indiana wins: The Hoosiers need to stop Notre Dame from running the ball the way the Irish want to run the ball. Indiana’s got the nation’s best rushing defense (allowing just 70.8 rushing yards per game) and is ready to take on the challenge of facing arguably the best running back duo in the nation — plus Leonard, a productive and fearless runner himself. If the Hoosiers win that battle, they’ll have a great chance to stay in the game and give themselves a chance to win it, even against superior athleticism. Indiana isn’t a team that beats itself, but it did have special teams miscues and mistakes against Ohio State that put it in a terrible position in a hostile environment. This version of Indiana won’t make those same mistakes and it will be better prepared for both the moment and spotlight because of what it went through in Columbus. This team will also be prepared and disciplined, and the Notre Dame defense hasn’t faced a quarterback like Kurtis Rourke or a passing game as productive as this one during its run of dominance this season. If Rourke has time in the pocket and if Indiana’s defense can shut down Love and Jadarian Price, well, the Hoosiers will have more than just a chance.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State, Saturday at Noon ET, TNT/Max
How Penn State wins: More of the same. There was a lot to like from the Nittany Lions’ last outing, even though they ultimately lost to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Drew Allar made some big plays, both running backs rushed for over 100 yards, and the Penn State offense showed how easy things can look when they’re able to rely on players not named Tyler Warren to move the ball. That’s not a knock on Warren — he is a spectacular tight end, and he’s been good in all of the other positions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has put him in, too — but this offense needs multiple ways it can score. If the Nittany Lions can bring the dynamic rushing attack they showed in Indianapolis this Saturday, they’ll be able to control the game. Their defensive front will get a lot of pressure on SMU QB Kevin Jennings, who made some very bad decisions last time out vs. Clemson and could get flustered early in this environment. Penn State needs to jump all over SMU early and keep the foot on the gas pedal. Let the superior athletes be the superior athletes and call the game to win it, not to avoid a loss. That’s the formula.
How SMU wins: The Mustangs need to establish the run. The offensive line is going to have their hands full with Penn State’s pass rushers, so they will need to find enough of a run game to keep defenders honest (and stop them from teeing off on Jennings every snap). SMU can’t beat itself and can’t turn the ball over like it did early in its ACC Championship Game against Clemson, which put the Mustangs in a 14-point hole just a few minutes into the game. That can’t happen again, which means that SMU also has to handle the atmosphere of Beaver Stadium and the magnitude of the moment a lot better than it did in the ACC title game, too. The Mustangs have a very good quarterback, great team speed (which could take advantage of holes in the Penn State secondary like Oregon’s skill players did) and a defense that’s good at getting off the field on third down. The Mustangs can hang in this game, and they could put themselves in position to have a chance to win it. The key is to start strong. Or, at the very least, avoid disaster early.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas, Saturday at 4 p.m. ET, TNT/Max
How Texas wins: The Longhorns simply need to stay on schedule. They can’t afford negative plays in the red zone (or just outside of it), like they had in the SEC Championship Game. They also need to stop turning the ball over. Texas has given the ball away seven times in its past three games, a trend that this team must buck if it’s going to put together a run through the CFP. We’ve seen very good Quinn Ewers and we’ve also seen some bad Quinn Ewers this season. Which one shows up in a matchup that pits two local high school star quarterbacks against one another? Can Texas control the game with a reliable passing attack that finishes drives and a run game that returns to action after just 31 rushing yards vs. Georgia in Atlanta? These Longhorns have a ton of talent and an elite defense, and there’s a reason they are the top at-large team in the field. But it’ll be up to the offense to get the job done on Saturday.
How Clemson wins: String together enough first downs. Move the chains. Get points, even if they come from field goals. The Tigers are going up against the nation’s best defense, so this is a tall task. But Cade Klubnik can be a very good quarterback — he’s underrated nationally — back at home for a monster game. He’s got to play well. Clemson could also use running back Phil Mafah, whose health is in question heading into Saturday’s matchup. The Clemson defense is not quite as dominant as we’re used to seeing, but it could still make life uncomfortable for Ewers, who has been inconsistent at times this season, and a run game that has essentially disappeared in Texas’ biggest games. The pressure to stay in this game (and maybe pull off another miraculous win during this unexpected postseason run) falls on Klubnik’s shoulders, but they’re strong enough to carry it.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
How Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes do the opposite of what they did against Michigan. They scrap whatever horrendous offensive game plan they used against That Team Up North and get back to what they do best — stretching the field vertically. Will Howard needs to connect early and often with his stellar wide receivers, and Jeremiah Smith needs to be targeted in the second half of the game. Ohio State has had a few weeks to get reps for this makeshift offensive line, which lost two starters to season-ending injuries, so there should be more cohesion and confidence heading into this game than the last. But the key to success is that O-line handling an extremely talented Tennessee defensive front, giving Howard enough time to get the ball out and the running backs space to get yardage. Ohio State will need both facets of its offense to win this game, though — again — it must lean on its strengths in the passing game first and foremost. Get the ball to your best athletes in space. Don’t overthink it. That goes for both the players and the coaching staff. They all need to be in a good headspace coming into this matchup and, honestly, they really need to jump out to an early lead to help quiet internal (and external) doubts. Plus, if there are Tennessee fans invading Ohio Stadium, the Buckeyes need to quiet them down.
How Tennessee wins: Dylan Sampson runs all over Ohio State’s defense. He’s rushed for nearly 1,500 yards on the season, and he’s a potential game-breaker. Michigan was able to beat these Buckeyes with just 62 passing yards because the Wolverines got what they needed to on the ground when they needed it (especially late in the game). That’s a formula that could work for the Vols, too, who saw quarterback Nico Iamaleava struggle in their two regular-season losses. The Tennessee defensive front is elite and could have a field day with Ohio State’s rebuilt offensive line. A dominant defensive showing and a great rushing attack would help take the pressure off a young quarterback in a hostile environment. So, too, could tens of thousands of Vols fans — if, indeed, they take over The ‘Shoe. Tennessee is catching Ohio State on the heels of an embarrassing loss that’s left this highly paid roster (and head coach) in a weird place. If the Vols jump on the Buckeyes early, Ohio State could get very tight and tense, which can lead to bad decision-making both from coaches and players.
