The odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy heading into the weekend threw for over 400 yards with more touchdowns (6) than incompletions (5) and yet the race for college football’s most prestigious individual honor actually flipped at BetMGM.
Here is Bo Nix’ statline from Oregon’s 49-13 win over Arizona State on Saturday. Keep in mind he played basically half the game.
Nix completed 24 of 29 passes (82.8%) for 404 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. His QBR was 99.5. By the time the day ended, his odds had dropped from +100 to +140 and his position on the odds board dropped as well as he now sits in the No. 2 position.
The new Heisman favorite? LSU’s Jayden Daniels (-130).
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The senior signal-caller is coming off back-to-back weeks of accounting for over 500 yards of total offense. Like Nix, Daniels threw more touchdown passes (6) than incompletions (5) while racking up 413 yards passing and another 96 yards rushing that included an additional two touchdowns in the Tigers’ 56-14 win over Georgia State.
Drifting further down the board is Washington’s Michael Penix, Jr. (+600). All the Huskies’ quarterback has done is keep his team in the win column EVERY week of the season. Saturday night in what was at least a steady rain if not outright downpour, Penix got the job done again in leading Washington to a 22-20 victory at Corvalis over Oregon State. Yes, he only threw for 162 yards (13-28) and two touchdowns, but they won in a tough environment and more than adverse conditions.
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We can add others into the conversation — Marvin Harrison, Jr. (+3000) and Carson Beck (+3300) — but it realistically is a three-horse race at best.
Some questions to ponder if you are considering the market:
1) How much does Daniels not playing on Championship weekend hurt his odds? Assuming each school wins their respective game this weekend, Nix and Penix are set to square off in a rematch with the Pac 12 title on the line the following weekend.
2) Does Daniels in the final assessment get judged more harshly for LSU’s three losses including one to Bama in which he did not finish the game than the other two whose teams have a combined one loss?
3) Are Penix and Nix, quarterbacks of better and more successful teams, splitting the vote allowing a pathway for Daniels?
4) Is there an East Coast bias at play here?
5) Is Daniels just a placeholder ultimately for the winner of the Pac 12 title game or are his stats and body of work so great that he now will claim the Heisman?
As the graphic above illustrates, this market has been anything but consistent this season. With two weeks remaining on the slate, it makes sense to assume further movement…and so the sweat continues.
*all odds courtesy of BetMGM
