College football is unpredictable and delightful, which is why we live for what happens on Saturdays. And Week 13 delivered, with a Buckeye statement at the ‘Shoe, a massive upset in Norman and chaos from coast to coast.
Each Sunday, I’ll publish my biggest takeaways from the college football weekend. I’ll highlight the most interesting storylines, track College Football Playoff contenders and specifically shout out individual and team performances that deserve the spotlight.
Here are my top takeaways from Week 13:
1. The biggest winners from another wild Saturday are the ACC, Georgia, and Notre Dame.
- The ACC now has a really good chance to get two teams into the 12-team bracket, now that Ole Miss and Alabama both picked up their third losses. SMU has been on the outside looking in in each of the projected brackets based on the real CFP rankings revealed thus far. The Mustangs should slide up and be in the field as an at-large team when the new rankings come out on Tuesday. My guess is that both Miami and SMU could be positioned high enough to stay in the mix as an at-large team if they lose in the ACC title game. In theory, the losers of the conference championship games aren’t supposed to be penalized for playing an extra game. We’ll see what the committee actually does, but this is the best-positioned the ACC has been to get two teams into the field in weeks.
- Georgia should be able to move up in the rankings now that the two teams it has lost to have three losses apiece. The selection committee had been honoring head-to-head results when evaluating comparable teams, which is why Georgia has been behind both Alabama and Ole Miss for the past two weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs move up to be in position to host a first-round game (or to be within striking distance of a seed high enough to do that).
- Notre Dame has been arguably the most dominant team in the nation over the past two months. The committee already forgives the Irish for their September loss to Northern Illinois and has the Irish ranked high enough to host a first-round game. With Indiana falling on Saturday and Penn State struggling to beat unranked Minnesota, you have to think that Notre Dame could move up. I’d put the Irish ahead of both myself.
2. Indiana could be squarely on the CFP bubble now.
I’ve seen a wide range of reactions to Ohio State’s 38-15 win over Indiana on Saturday afternoon in Columbus. I’ve seen folks suggest that the Hoosiers acquitted themselves well enough to keep a spot in the 12-team field by not getting blown off the field by the No. 2 team in the country — and that’s certainly possible, considering how highly the CFP selection committee thinks of the Buckeyes. I also think that a potential 11-1 team whose only loss is to the No. 2 team in the country should have a pretty good chance to earn one of seven at-large spots (just like Penn State was!). Especially considering that Ole Miss and Alabama should fall out of the field after picking up their third losses.
But the Hoosiers also struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball on Saturday outside of their opening drive. In their past three halves (dating back to the second half of the Michigan game), Indiana has tallied 169 total yards of offense combined. That’s not great! But it seems like every team in the country is flawed, and bubble teams will always have some blemishes on their resumes. And that’s where I think Indiana will be dinged a bit by the loss and the weak overall strength of schedule. Which is fine! I think the Hoosiers will be in the projected bracket when the rankings come out on Tuesday. But I’m not entirely sure where. Either way, Indiana’s definitely still in the mix, but the Hoosiers might have some restless nights between now and Dec. 8 because they no longer control their own path to the Playoff.
3. Ole Miss will not make the Playoff.
Lane Kiffin‘s team was supposed to be exactly the kind of program that would benefit from an expanded College Football Playoff. In the four-team CFP era, it would have basically required perfection for Ole Miss to get to the SEC title game and secure a Playoff berth. But now, 11-1 and 10-2 with a challenging SEC schedule would keep a team very squarely in the mix. And Ole Miss was comfortably in the projected bracket based on last week’s official CFP rankings, checking in at No. 9 in the rankings and the No. 10 seed in the field on the strength of the Rebels’ win over Georgia. But that signature win won’t be enough to make up for three losses to teams that are likely to all be unranked — to LSU and Florida (who are both barely above .500 on the season) and to Kentucky in the Wildcats’ only SEC win of the season. Despite all the chatter about the rigors of an SEC schedule, at some point you’ve also actually got to win the games. And Ole Miss has lost the games it couldn’t afford to do.
4. DJ Lagway should be one of the best quarterbacks in the country next year.
Lagway is the real deal. Every time I watch him play, I come away impressed with his arm strength, his poise and his athleticism. He’s even accurate when he’s getting hit or under pressure. I’m blown away by his toughness, and I can’t say I’m surprised that he led the Gators to a second win over a ranked opponent, this time over No. 9 Ole Miss. He’s 4-0 as a starter at the Swamp, which is actually a wild stat considering how hot Billy Napier‘s seat was after a 1-2 start. Now, the Gators have already committed to Napier running this program next fall and might finish a brutally challenging schedule with a 7-5 record. Part of the reason Florida kept Napier is because of Lagway, of course. He’s said he’s committed to his coach and happy about that decision. Never say never until the transfer portal closes, but there’s a lot to be excited about if you’re building a team around a quarterback as special as this one.
5. Cheers to Kansas and Florida, the ultimate season spoilers.
The Gators have knocked both LSU and Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff picture in the past two weeks. And the Jayhawks became the first sub-.500 team to beat three consecutive ranked opponents with wins over Iowa State, BYU and now Colorado. At the time of each game, Kansas’ opponent controlled its own path to the Big 12 title game — and it most certainly did not when the clock hit zeroes. I always appreciate a good chaos agent, so I like these two teams coming out of nowhere to play their best football in time to ruin the season of everyone left on their schedules. That’s unlocking a new level of petty in a sport that thrives off of it. Bravo!
6. SMU looks like it is the best team in the ACC.
The Mustangs are certainly the league’s most complete team. And I’d argue they’re the team I trust most, as we sit here in late November. Miami’s got an electric quarterback and quick-strike offense, but it’s also got a leaky defense (that struggled for three quarters against a Wake Forest team that had only had two ACC wins coming into Saturday’s game at Miami). Meanwhile, SMU has speed and talent on both sides of the ball, and the Mustangs have now reeled off eight straight wins since their early-season, three-point loss to BYU. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has started all eight of those games, and though he’s had a couple of tough days — that five-turnover game at Duke was certainly memorable — he’s largely been quite good. Jennings throws a beautiful ball, and he’s got good chemistry with a bunch of different receivers. Couple that with Miami transfer Brashard Smith’s 1,000-plus yards as a rusher, and this is both a reliable and dangerous offense. It just feels right that this team has clinched a spot in the ACC championship game in its first year in the league.
7. More chaos in the Big 12 race sets up a potential title game between Arizona State ... and Iowa State?
Another week and another round of upsets in Big 12 country! Every time we think we know something about the top of the standings, they get flipped on their head. Arizona State knocked off No. 14 BYU (and stormed the field ... twice) while Kansas beat No. 16 Colorado behind Devin Neal‘s four touchdowns and nearly 300 all-purpose yards. Now, the Sun Devils have a very good chance to make it to the Big 12 title game — beat Arizona and they’re in — while Iowa State would win the tiebreaker over its fellow two-loss Big 12 brethren to meet Arizona State in said title game if the Cyclones win out, too. Colorado is still alive in the Big 12 race, but the Buffs would need significant help to get there. I can’t imagine that not playing in the Big 12 championship game will hurt Travis Hunter‘s Heisman chances too much, but it is worth noting that he wouldn’t be playing the final weekend before voting closes while other contenders will be.
8. Notre Dame is a team I really trust.
The Fighting Irish have been among the nation’s most dominant teams over the past two-plus months, dating back to that brutal loss to Northern Illinois. I’ve spilled a lot of ink here arguing that Notre Dame now is a very different team from the one we saw on that fateful September day — but I no longer need to make that case, because the selection committee agrees with me already. Based on last week’s rankings, the Irish would be hosting a first-round game. But they could and should slide up after yet another dominant win, this time coming at Army’s expense. Over Notre Dame’s nine-game winning streak, the Irish have outscored opponents, 392-99. Over the course of the entire season, the Irish now have the best point differential in FBS (+301). Notre Dame has an elite defense and a great rushing attack. So many teams across college football have fluctuated week to week, leading to some of the crazy upsets we’ve seen this fall. But Notre Dame has been a consistent and reliable team that, since the NIU loss, hasn’t overlooked a single opponent. I trust the Irish.
9. Penn State should drop in the next set of CFP rankings.
They probably won’t because of the teams ranked below them that lost, but the Nittany Lions aren’t exactly passing the eye test these days. They eked out a win over Minnesota to improve to 10-1, but that’s not exactly the kind of performance one would expect to see from the No. 4 team in the country against an unranked opponent, even on the road late in November. For the record, I don’t think Penn State is actually going to drop. But the selection committee says it starts from scratch each week, and if it truly starts from scratch it would perhaps make a bit more about the lack of a signature win on this resume and the fact that this team would be struggling mightily to move the ball without do-everything tight end Tyler Warren. It sure seems like the strongest part of Penn State’s resume is its loss to the No. 2 team in the country, and I’m just surprised that the committee continues to allow that — for both Penn State and Texas, who also has no marquee wins and is ranked third by the committee. I’d drop the Nittany Lions behind Notre Dame, personally.
10. Our long national nightmare is over: Nebraska is going bowling!
The last time the Huskers played in the postseason? Dec. 30, 2016. For proud Husker fans, it’s been a long and very painful eight years. Just last week, I said I believed Nebraska was cursed, having lost nine straight games with a chance to become bowl-eligible with eight of those losses coming in one-score games. So, to snap that skid, Nebraska decided it wouldn’t allow the game to be close — so no curses could come into play late. The Huskers took a 17-point lead into the fourth quarter and pulled away for a 44-25 win over Wisconsin. It’s the most points Nebraska has scored in a game since Matt Rhule took over the program. That in-season offensive coordinator change sure looks smart now, and I’m genuinely so happy for everyone associated with this team and its community.
