Vaughn Dalzell shares his early pick to win the Big Ten Regular Season as we are only two games in.
Winner of the Big Ten Regular Season: Purdue (-140)
The favorite in the Big Ten is the Purdue Boilermakers (-140) and I think the price of -140 could be a steal as we enter Big Ten Regular Season play.
The Big Ten field to challenge Purdue in terms of odds are Illinois (+700), Wisconsin (+800), Michigan State (+1200), and Ohio State (+1400).
Purdue went 15-5 in Big Ten play last season with two losses to Indiana, but the other three came versus Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern. None of those five losses from a year ago include the aforementioned four teams in terms of odds, which I think is worth noting.
Some of the teams Purdue has beaten this season include Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga, and Xavier. However, Purdue is 1-1 in the Big Ten with a loss at Northwestern in OT (92-88) and a victory over Iowa at home (87-68). No team has played more than two games in the Big Ten thus far so that loss should not haunt Purdue.
The biggest change in the Boilermakers this season is the experience gained from its starting guards Fletcher Loyer (11.3 PPG, 41/90/38 splits) and Braden Smith (13.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) along with reigning Naismith Player of the Year Zach Edey (24.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG) returning.
Purdue was 282nd in DI experience last year (1.44) and 226th in minute continuity (37.3%). Purdue is 84th in experience (2.33) and 9th in minutes back this season (71.4%). That has proved vital in what’s been the most impressive resume in college basketball so far.
Purdue is one of three teams ranked top 12 in offensive and defensive efficiency (Arizona, BYU) and shooting impressive clips in doing so. The Boilermakers are knocking down 39.2% of its triples (16th) and holding opponents to 28.9% from deep (34th). Being one of the tallest teams in the nation (9th), naturally, Purdue ranks 36th and 28th in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
The Boilermakers don’t have many weaknesses, the one that could become a problem is they don’t force enough turnovers (299th), but they have played the 8th-toughest strength of schedule, so I expected that number.
I played Purdue at -140 odds and risked 2 units on the Boilermakers to win the Big Ten Regular Season. That experience will pay off in Big Ten play and should stretch into March this season, unlike last year.
Pick: Purdue to win the Big Ten (Risk 2u)
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