Vaughn Dalzell predicts the outcome of St. John’s at Xavier, plus a team total in Rutgers versus Penn State.
St. John’s at Xavier (-1.5): O/U 156.0
Xavier is back at home after losing two road games at UConn (99-56) and Creighton (85-78), while St. John’s got a much-needed home win over Villanova (70-50) to break a three-game losing streak.
Xavier is 3-1 at home in Big East play on 40.2% from deep and a 40.5% offensive-rebounding percentage, both No. 2 in the conference. The loss came versus UConn, while the wins versus Seton Hall, Butler, and Georgetown came by 20, 14, and 1 point.
St. John’s enters on a two-game losing road streak and dropped three of the past four away from home. The Red Storm are 2-3 in true road games with a 29% three-point mark (293rd) and a 37.2% defensive rebounding percentage (349th).
These teams both play top four tempos in the Big East and with Xavier needing a win, being at home, and owning the better three-point, free-throw, and turnover percentages, give me the Musketeers in what should be an exciting watch.
I grabbed Xavier on the ML at -122 odds on FanDuel and would go to -140 odds. Xavier swept St. John’s last season with 5 and 24-point wins and lost by 16 this year, plus the Musketeers are 7-1 in the last eight matchups at home versus the Red Storm.
Pick: Xavier ML (1u)
Penn State at Rutgers (-6): O/U 143.0
Rutgers is coming off two straight losses, while Penn State held a 45-31 halftime lead over Minnesota and lost that game 83-74. Out of the 11 remaining games, Penn State is favored in one of them.
With a 1-4 record over the last five games for Penn State (0-2 on the road), it’s hard to trust the Nittany Lions, while Rutgers owns the No. 7 ranked defense in the nation at home and a 9-2 record.
Of the 11 teams that visited Rutgers this season, only three teams have scored at least 68 points, Illinois (76), Purdue (68), and Nebraska (82 OT, 69 in regulation). Illinois and Purdue are top-three ranked teams in the Big Ten and were losses for Rutgers.
In Rutgers’ eight home wins, seven teams stayed Under 68.5 points and Penn State hasn’t scored more than 66 points at Rutgers dating back to Feb. 20, 2016 (five games). The Nittany Lions are 0-4 in true road games this season and 0-8 with neutral courts.
Penn State scored at least 69 points in six out of eight road/neutral court games, but the offense ranks bottom three in the Big Ten for three-point percentages (30.6%), effective field goal percentage (48.6%), and offensive rebounding percentage (24.6%).
I went Under 68.5 points at -120 odds on Penn State’s Team Total at DraftKings and would play this down to 66.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Penn State Team Total Under 68.5 (1.5u)
Season Record: 20-19 (51.2%) -1.82u
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