Vaughn Dalzell breaks down two MLK matchups in the Big Ten between Minnesota vs Iowa and Ohio State at Michigan.
Iowa at Minnesota (-1): O/U 158.5
Happy MLK Day! Let’s finish our hoops night with our best bet, which is Iowa at Minnesota in what could be a one-sided affair.
Iowa has beaten Minnesota four straight times, but I like Minnesota in this spot. The Gophers went 9-22 last season, so the 12-4 start is certainly a surprise, while we all expected the Hawkeyes to be middle of the pack in the Big Ten.
Iowa is 0-4 in true road games this season and 4-11 dating back to the start of last year. Iowa’s lost by 8, 11, 19, and 25 points in four road games this season, while Minnesota is 8-1 at home, losing to Missouri (70-68) back in November.
Minnesota’s had five double-digit scorers in three of the past seven games, plus Elijah Hawkins leads the country in assists (123) and assists per game (7.7). The Gophers have a well-balanced offense and bench that can score on the Hawkeyes.
The two biggest advantages for Minnesota outside of homecourt are the Gophers shoot 56.8% from two (18th) and the Hawkeyes have allowed four Big Ten opponents to shoot 58.2% from two (last). On the road, Iowa allows opponents to shoot 62.5% from two (320th), plus they don’t force turnovers, ranking 230th on the road (15.6%).
Give me Minnesota at home. They opened +1 as a slight dog, but the line has moved to -1 and -1.5. I grabbed the Gophers at +1 and the ML at -110 and -125 odds. I would play the ML out to -150.
Pick: Minnesota ML (Risk 2u)
Ohio State (-1.5) at Michigan: O/U 147.0
We have a meeting of two teams on season-long losing streaks. Michigan is on a five-game losing stretch and Ohio State entering on a two-game slide. These squads have split the last 10 meetings, so I expect a classic meeting between the two rivals.
Michigan’s boasted a 5-1 record on MLK Day since starting the tradition in 2017-18 and they could absolutely use a win here. In four of the last five losses, the Wolverines have been in the game with chances to win but failed to pull out the victory.
I like the chances the Wolverines can get a home victory here for a few reasons. OSU ranks last in the Big Ten with a 19.4% offensive turnover percentage and is second-to-last with a 12.3% turnover percentage on defense. Michigan is a little better in those categories, but being at home normally helps the turnover margin category.
The Buckeyes have lived or died by the three because they are ranking bottom five in two-point offense and defense through five Big Ten games (2-3). Ohio State also lost 11 straight true road games dating back to 1/1/23, so backing OSU on the road is a tough ask, even though we know the Buckeyes’ roster is slightly better than Michigan’s.
Give me Michigan +1.5 at -108 odds down to the +1 or ML out to -125 odds. I think the Wolverines should be the slight favorite.
Pick: Michigan +1.5 (1u)
Season Record: 16-13 (55.1%) +2.28u
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