Vaughn Dalzell breaks down a loaded College Basketball slate with six picks, including Iowa State versus West Virginia, Villanova at UConn and more!
West Virginia at Iowa State (-17.5): O/U 134.0
Iowa State is back at home after a road loss at Houston to break a four-game winning streak. West Virginia is coming off a home win versus UCF that broke a four-game losing streak.
Following the last five games that WVU won, the Mountaineers struggled in the first half of the following games. West Virginia scored 29, 26, 25, 24, and 29 points in those halves, and fall into that category here at Iowa State versus a team ranked No. 2 in defensive efficiency.
Iowa State off a loss has allowed 25, 37, 21, 26, and 19 points in the following first halves, so they have basically dominated outside of one game.
The Mountaineers offense should be no match for the Cyclones defense, so I played West Virginia’s First Half Team Total Under 28.5 at -110 odds. I’d go down to 27.5 for 1.5 units.
Pick: West Virginia 1H Team Total Under 28.5 (2u)
Villanova at UConn (-11.5): O/U 132.5
UConn is arguably the best team in the country (with Houston), and coming off a loss at home, I think UConn proves how good they are hosting Villanova.
The Wildcats are 1-4 in the last five road games and have struggled offensively with the 185th adjusted efficiency. Villanova has scored 28, 28, 36, 22, and 40 points in the last five road first halves and own the 353rd and 275th in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and elite three-point (23.3%) and two-point defense (43.3%) at home in Big East play. UConn is 14-0 at home and won 11 of 14 Big East games games by 13 or more points this season. I lean UConn on the spread.
I played Villanova’s First Half Team Total Under 28.5 at -130 odds on DraftKings and would go down to 27.5 for 1.5 units or opt for UConn’s first half spread.
Pick: Villanova 1H Team Total Under 28.5 (Risk 1.5u)
North Carolina (-2.5) at Virginia: O/U 130.0
We’ve bet Virginia’s last two games and cashed, so let’s keep it rolling as they host the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Over the last two games, Virginia owns the 351st ranked offensive efficiency, but comes in 19th on defense. The Cavaliers are the 240th ranked team, ahead of Northern Illinois and behind Western Michigan per Barttorvik.
UNC is the 12th-ranked team and 8th on offense in that span and they both played Virginia Tech as their past opponent. UNC hasn’t played in a week, so offensive rust could be a factor early, but the defense should be there.
The Tar Heels own the nations 2nd-best defense, along with the 4th-best three-point percentage (26.1%) and 11th two-point percentage (45.6%) over eight true road games. UNC ranks 185th in tempo and as everyone knows, UVA is second-slowest and third-slowest at home and overall this season.
I played the Virginia First Half Team Total Under 30.5 at -122 odds on FanDuel would go down to 29.5 on DraftKings for 1 unit. I don’t expect the Cavaliers offensive woes to be fixed against an elite defense like the Tar Heels.
Pick: Virginia 1H Team Total Under 30.5 (1u)
Texas Tech at UCF (-1): O/U 139.5
UCF has lost four straight games, while Texas Tech is 1-4 in the last five road games (three straight losses), so this is a great spot for the Knights.
When these teams met last time, it was neck-and-neck before Texas Tech pulled away in the final moments at home and won 66-59. UCF never led in that game but never trailed by more than 10 points.
Ibrahima Diallo did not play for UCF and he is one of the nations best rebounders and shot blockers. Diallo’s precense will effect Texas Tech on the road here.
Texas Tech scored 31 points in the first half of that game and going on the road, where they play a slower tempo, the Raiders Raiders first half team total is 32.5. I think Diallo will be a reason why Texas Tech goes Under 32 points in the first half.
I played the Texas Tech First Half Team Total Under 32.5 at -112 odds on FanDuel and would go down to 31.5. I grabbed UCF’s ML at -110 odds too.
The Knights have been playing hard, losing by 2 at BYU, by 2 at home versus Cincinnati and by 10 at West Virginia since playing the Red Raiders. This is a good buy-low spot on UCF.
Pick: UCF ML (1u), Texas Tech 1H Team Total Under 32.5 (1u)
Season Record: 42-35 (54.5%) +2.31 units
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