Vaughn Dalzell picks a team total as his best bet in Ohio State at Iowa on the Friday College Basketball slate.
Ohio State at Iowa (-4.5): O/U 157.5
The must-watch game on Friday night is a Big Ten battle between Ohio State and Iowa that could produce a ton of points.
Ohio State has lost 12 straight true road games dating back to last season and is 0-5 this year in true road games. Iowa is 8-3 at home with back-to-back home losses to Purdue and Maryland, so this is a good spot for the Hawkeyes to earn the victory.
The Buckeyes own the 361st-ranked three-point defense (48.6%) and bottom 50 ranks overall in defensive effective field goal percentage (56.8%), defensive turnover percentage (10.4%), and offensive three-point percentage (27.9%).
Iowa is 8-3 at home this season with the 6th-best offensive turnover percentage (11.2%) in the country and the 29th-ranked offense. The Hawkeyes are also a terrific free-throw shooting team hitting 77.1% of its freebies (29th), and 79.8% in conference games.
I am not sure how Ohio State slows down Iowa’s offense and No. 1 ranked Big Ten tempo at home. Both Kenpom and Barttorvik have Iowa exceeding 80-plus points here, something they have done in all 12 wins this season.
OSU has lost three straight games and six of the past seven, while Iowa is looking for a bounce back after a road loss at Indiana.
During Ohio State’s three-game losing streak, the Buckeyes have permitted 41, 41, and 43 points in the first half to Illinois, Northwestern, and Nebraska.
Iowa scored 34 points in each of their past two first halves at home to Maryland and Purdue, but 41 in each of the two before that (Nebraska, Rutgers).
The Hawkeyes are 1-3 in the past four games after putting together an impressive 6-1 run. I like this bounce-back spot for Iowa’s offense at home. Give me the Hawkeyes First Half Team Total Over 38.5 at -110- odds on FanDuel. Good to 39.5.
Pick: Iowa 1H Team Total Over 38.5 (1u)
Season Record: 23-19 (54.7%) +1.68u
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
