Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s betting on Gonzaga hosting Mississippi Valley State.
Mississippi Valley State at Gonzaga (-39.5): O/U 141.5
We’re going to run it back on Gonzaga as they host Mississippi Valley State (MVS) and are coming off a 78-73 loss at Washington.
Gonzaga had an 84.1% win expectancy on a six-point lead against Washington with 10 minutes remaining, then the Bulldogs only mustered seven points to Washington’s 18. The Bulldogs have the best bounce-back spot possible as the Delta Devils don’t have much going for them.
MVS is 0-9 on the year with the third-fastest average defensive possession length (15.2 seconds), plus allows 61.7% from two-point range (2nd-worst) and a 40.3% opponent offensive rebounding percentage (3rd-worst).
The only team that ranks worse in the latter two statistical categories is Arkansas Pine Bluff, who Gonzaga just scored 111 points on Tuesday, Dec. 5.
Six-straight teams scored 82 or more points versus MVS to start the season before the previous three scored 79 or fewer.
Gonzaga is a top three offense that MVS will play to this point. UConn (87 points), TCU (86), Oklahoma (82) and LSU (106) were the four best rated offenses that MVS has played and only UConn has a better adjusted offensive efficiency than Gonzaga.
I played the Bulldogs’ Team Total Over 90.5 at -120 odds and would go up to 91.5. This is another ideal spot for Gonzaga to hit the century mark.
Pick: Gonzaga Team Total Over 90.5 (1u)
Season Record: 14-5 (73.6%) +8.38 units
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