I’m certainly no college basketball film grinder so I lean heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency metrics when March Madness comes around.
I’m very much interested to see how Michigan State comes out of the gates in what I think could be a deep tournament run for the Spartans. While they’re just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency, Michigan State ranks ninth in defensive efficiency and takes on a Mississippi State team that doesn’t profile as an offensive juggernaut, ranking 64th in offensive efficiency. Michigan State has allowed a lowly 44.5 percent shooting percentage this season, which ranks 22nd among 362 teams. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has skated by with one of the softest schedules among this year’s tournament teams.
There’s also the matter of potential regression for Sparty in the tournament: No team enters March Madness with a lower luck rating, as measured by KenPom.com.
Ranking 19th in KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency margin - just a sliver behind three-seed Baylor and above three-seed Kentucky - I see the Spartans as a quietly underrated team entering the tourney.
South Carolina, meanwhile, profiles as a somewhat-to-vastly-overrated six seed in the tournament. The Gamecocks, per KenPom, are the single luckiest team in this year’s tournament and faced an absurdly easy out-of-conference schedule.
Their adjusted efficiency margin is lower than a handful of lower seeded teams, including nine-seeded Northwestern and ten seeds Nevada and Boise State. I would say South Carolina is vulnerable off the jump against 11-seed Oregon in the first round. Their 26-7 regular season record is something of a mirage.
