The Sweet 16 tips off Thursday evening with a plethora of storylines and stars. Let’s dive into the matchups and grab a few plays.
6-Clemson (+260) vs 2-Arizona (-325)
Spread: Wildcats -7.5 | O/U: 151.5
Tip-Off: Thursday, March 28 @ 7:09P ET on CBS
Arizona is weak on the perimeter defensively. 32.5% of points against the Wildcats come from deep (272nd in Division 1). Clemson ranks a healthy 25th in catch-and-shoot and 16th in off-the-dribble 3-pointers. The Tigers will live or die pending their results from beyond the arc against Arizona. Let’s ride with Clemson’s Joe Girard III and back him making 3+ three-pointers (-120). He has made at least two in 18 of his last 19 games and at three or more in 10 of those 19. It will be a sweat, but Girard will get plenty of looks.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
5-San Diego State (+455) vs. 1-UCONN (-625)
Spread: Huskies -11 | O/U: 135.5
Tip-Off: Thursday, March 28 @ 7:39P ET on TBS
This is a rematch of last year’s national championship game and just like in their previous meeting, the Huskies are prohibitive favorites. Coach Hurley has labeled his team as elite, and he will find no argument here. Plays to consider: Tristan Newton OVER 14.5 points (-125). He makes this team go and the ball is constantly in his hands. Donovan Clingan OVER 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-125). The sophomore has blown past that number in each of his last three games. Of course, Connecticut to cover the 11 point spread (-110) is also realistic to expect to cash.
4-Alabama (+154) vs. 1-North Carolina (-185)
Spread: Tar Heels -4 | O/U: 173.5
Tip-Off: Thursday, March 28 @ 9:50P ET on CBS
North Carolina is defending better than they have in years. Does that continue Thursday against an athletic, attacking but often undisciplined Alabama? The Heels laying the points is a solid play. In addition, Harrison Ingram went 5-7 from beyond the arc in the Round of 32. With the pace of this game expected to result in an above average number of possessions, expect the junior forward to convert on 2+ three-pointers (-120) as has averaged nearly two makes per game on fewer than five attempts for the season. If you really like UNC in this one, consider taking Cormac Ryan OVER 2.5 three’s (+145).
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3-Illinois (+105) vs. 2-Iowa State (-125)
Spread: Cyclones -1.5 | O/U: 146
Tip-Off: Thursday, March 28 @ 10:09P ET on TBS
This is the ultimate offense vs. defense tilt as the Fighting Illini own the nation’s top offense since January 1 and the Cyclones have played the best defense since that same date. Can Illinois protect the basketball and defend the opposing point guard the way they did against Duquesne last weekend? Doubtful. In fact, expect Tamin Lipsey to control pace and keep Illinois from getting into the open court. Consider Lipsey OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-120). The sophomore has reached that total easily in both NCAA Tournament games and in three of his last five overall.
11-North Carolina State (+235) vs. 2-Marquette (-290)
Spread: Golden Eagles -6.5 | O/U: 151.5
Tip-Off: Friday, March 29 @ 7:09P ET on CBS
There are numerous angles to attack this one. When Marquette wins, they cover having done so in 12 of their last 13 victories. Tyler Kolek is what makes them go and his sense for the game and in the moment is next level. Back in the lineup after missing the Big East Tournament, Kolek has tallied 11 assists in each of the Golden Eagles’ first two Tournament games. His number is set at 7.5 (-160) but you can find 10+ assists (+175) if you think the All America point guard controls the game. On the other side, Marquette’s primary weakness is on the boards and that is Mohamed Diarra’s game. His number is set at a robust 10.5 rebounds (-145) but know he has pulled down at least 12 in each of State’s last six games.
5-Gonzaga (+190) vs. 1-Purdue (-230)
Spread: Boilermakers -5.5 | O/U: 154.5
Tip-Off: Friday, March 29 @ 7:39P ET on TBS
Zach Edey’s rebound total sits at an appetizing 12.5 (-130) for this one. He has grabbed at least 14 in both tournament games despite playing just 27 and 31 minutes in each. Not a big enough sample size? Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Edey has cleared 10 or more boards in 19 of 22 games and has grabbed 13 or more 13 times. If you are still not a believer in the big fella and the Boilermakers, look at Ryan Nembhard OVER 7.5 Assists (-110). The junior has been credited with at least nine assists in each of the Zags’ last five games and in eight of their last eleven.
4-Duke (+160) vs. 1-Houston (-192)
Spread: Cougars -4 | O/U: 134.5
Tip-Off: Friday, March 29 @ 9:40P ET on CBS
While Houston is overall the more experienced and tournament-tested team, both these teams are led by veteran point guards. Can Jeremy Roach and the Blue Devils handle the pressure of the Cougars and are they willing to go to the tough places on the court to get loose balls and draw contact? They have not been that team to date this season. If the game officials allow Houston’s defense to get up into the Blue Devils, the Cougars will move on to the Elite 8. With the game in Houston’s backyard, bank on the officials swallowing their whistles. Take the Cougars and lay the points.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
3-Creighton (+136) vs. 2-Tennessee (-162)
Spread: Volunteers -3 | O/U: 144
Tip-Off: Friday, March 29 @ 10:20P ET on TBS
Money has not moved the Spread but has dropped the Total to an even 144. That is a nod to Tennessee’s defense. The Volunteers do not cover the number often but they win and have done so 18 of 21 times when listed as a -155 or greater favorite. Zakai Zeigler is the engine that makes Tennessee go. Take a look at playing OVER 5.5 assists (-150). He has totaled at least seven in four of the last five games. If you like Tennessee to win, consider playing Zeigler to get 8+ assists (+215).
Enjoy the games and let’s cash a few tickets.
