There’s a more-than-viable argument that 11-seed New Mexico is outright a better team than 6-seed Clemson.
The metrics paint a fairly clear picture: New Mexico is 21st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, ahead of Clemson at 35. With a borderline elite defense, New Mexico’s offensive deficiencies -- they rank 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency -- might not matter a whole lot against a Clemson team with the nation’s 66th most efficient defense.
New Mexico’s defense should give Clemson fits on Friday. The Lobos allow the nation’s 30th lowest field goal percentage (45 percent) among 362 qualifying teams. Clemson hasn’t faced much in the way of defensive powerhouses: They’re outside the top 70 in opponents’ defensive efficiency rating.
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Clemson not being equipped to overcome New Mexico’s defense and the Lobos’ overall team efficiency makes the upset more than likely in this one.
Not often does an 8-9 seed matchup appear so lopsided on the spreadsheet. But that’s what we have with 8-seeded Florida Atlantic taking on 9-seed Northwestern.
There should be real concern about Northwestern’s strength of schedule this season. Northwestern ranked 355th in the country in non-conference strength of schedule rating; among NCAA Tournament teams, only TCU had an easier out-of-conference schedule in 2023-24.
Florida Atlantic will have a distinct advantage on the boards. They ranked 42nd in the nation in rebounding rate during the regular season, considerably higher than their first-round opponent.
Offensive efficiency rating matters (a lot) this time of year, and FAU enters the tournament 17th in that category, ahead of two 1 seeds and three 2 seeds. Their rebounding prowess and offensive firepower should be more than enough to put away Northwestern on Friday.
Enjoy Day 2 of the Madness and let’s cash a couple tickets.
