If the Red Sox want to keep Xander Bogaerts in Boston, they'll have to pay up -- and now we have a better idea of his price tag.
The New York Post's Jon Heyman wrote a column Thursday ranking the top 30 pending free agents in Major League Baseball with an "outside expert's pay prediction" for each player. Bogaerts ranked sixth on Heyman's list, with a projected contract of eight years and $225 million.
That deal makes the four-year, $90 million extension the Red Sox offered Bogaerts this spring seem laughable, but it's also not unreasonable. A $28.1 million-per-year contract would make Bogaerts the fourth-highest-paid shortstop in baseball, which is fitting for a player who just finished third in the American League in batting average (.307) while posting one of his better defensive seasons.
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SIGN UP HERE It seems unlikely the Red Sox would want to give an eight-year contract to a 30-year-old, especially one whose years may be numbered at the shortstop position. In fact, Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez hopes both Bogaerts and Rafael Devers (a free agent after the 2023 season) consider taking pay cuts to remain in Boston.
"I hope they will take a little bit less to just be in Boston because of the love and how comfortable they feel around Boston," Martinez told the Boston Herald's Jason Mastrodonato.
But Martinez understands that might be wishful thinking, especially in the case of Bogaerts, who is represented by super-agent Scott Boras.
Tomase: In Bogaerts contract talks, the Boras factor can't be ignored
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"The Red Sox have to realize the only dark part of baseball is the business part of baseball," Martinez added. "When it comes to economics, everybody is going to look for their own benefits. And that’s the team, the players, the agents, everybody who is going to try to take that piece the moment they get their opportunities.
"That’s reality and it’s a cruel reality, but we have to understand it."
The Red Sox technically can offer Bogaerts an extension up until three days after the World Series ends if the two sides agree on terms. But The Boston Globe's Alex Speier reports that an "11th-hour" extension is "unlikely," and that Bogaerts is expected to opt out of his contract to hit unrestricted free agency.
That development will force Chaim Bloom and Co. to decide how much they're willing to pay to keep their franchise cornerstone and clubhouse leader in Boston.