The Red Sox have dragged their feet on Rafael Devers for years. As recently as the start of spring training, he said the sides still hadn't spoken about a contract extension.
"WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?!?!?" we quite reasonably screamed.
But what if the team's hesitation isn't born of negligence, but confusion?
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SIGN UP HERE We know Devers is a great hitter. He has reminded everyone of that greatness this spring with a league-high five home runs in only 22 plate appearances. As Red Sox co-PR director Justin Long notes, that's a 150-homer pace over a full season.
Devers' offensive ability isn't in question, especially as he enters his age-25 season coming off his first All-Star Game. He has been 40 home runs waiting to happen practically since the day Dave Dombrowski summoned him in 2016, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he goes off for 50 one of these years.
The question from a long-term contract standpoint is what position Devers ultimately plays. If he stays at third base, he's worth at least $250 million and up to $300 million, based on contracts given to the likes of Anthony Rendon ($248 million) and Manny Machado ($300 million). Both are better defenders than Devers, but comparable hitters, and I'd personally take Devers at the plate.
After leading American League third basemen in errors for four straight years, however, Devers is by no means guaranteed to finish a long-term deal at the hot corner. He may not even start it there. At some point sooner than later, the Red Sox could decide they must shift him either to first or designated hitter. And then his market looks decidedly different.
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The largest contract ever given to a first baseman is the eight years and $248 million the Tigers gave Miguel Cabrera in 2014, a deal which didn't kick in until 2016 and remains insane. He is predictably limping to the finish.
In a similar vein is the 10-year, $240 million deal the Angels bestowed upon Albert Pujols at the 2011 winter meetings. At that point, however, the 31-year-old was a three-time MVP with nearly 450 lifetime homers, and the analytics revolution hadn't quite broadly recognized the folly in signing a player that age at that position to that contract. Pujols made exactly one All-Star team during his decade in Anaheim and now serves as a cautionary tale against rewarding past performance.
As a first baseman, Devers's best comp would be the 10-year, $225 million extension the Reds gave a 28-year-old Joey Votto in 2012. He, too, had won an MVP at that point, while also establishing himself as a Cincinnati institution. He has more than justified that deal with four top-10 MVP finishes since.
In Devers' worst-case scenario, he moves over to designated hitter. He needn't look far for the biggest contract ever signed by a full-time DH, because it's the $110 million J.D. Martinez received from the Red Sox in 2015. Martinez has been worth every last penny, but his is more typical of most DH contracts in that he signed it in his 30s. Devers doesn't turn 26 until October. It's hard to imagine that he'll be giving up his glove entirely anytime soon.
So if you're Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox, what do you do? Do you offer Devers a $300 million extension at the top of the third base market in recognition of his elite offensive skills and just swallow the defensive shortcomings? Or do you question how long the club's pitchers must suffer due to leaky left-side defense and pay him like a slugging first baseman for $200 million?
That $100 million gulf is the kind of disparity that leads a player to say, "You know what? I'll test the market," and maybe that's where Devers is ultimately headed when he reaches free agency in two years.
Then again, if the Red Sox determine they can't or won't pay him, maybe he's traded next winter as a sort of Mookie Betts Redux. If his situation reaches that point, our gut reaction will be to say the Red Sox screwed up, but we should at least acknowledge this much: His future is complicated.