John Tomase breaks down yet another setback for Chris Sale, who hasn’t been fully healthy since 2018
Chris Sale placed sixth or better in Cy Young voting for seven straight seasons from 2012-18. During that time, he established himself as arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball.
Will we ever see that version of Sale again?
Injuries continue to plague the veteran southpaw heading into the 2022 campaign. He'll miss at least the first two months of the season after suffering a stress fracture in his right rib cage. That makes it four seasons in a row Sale has dealt with an injury.
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Last year, Red Sox fans waited with bated breath as Sale worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. The 33-year-old put together a few encouraging rehab starts before rejoining the major league club in August. He was solid, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. His finish to the regular season and two playoff starts left a bit to be desired, but at least his injury woes appeared to be behind him.
Now, the Red Sox enter 2022 with the same questions at the top of the rotation as a season ago. When will Sale return? When he does, will he be a frontline starter? How long will he last before another nagging injury pops up? Can the supporting cast carry Boston to a playoff berth again?
Sale's latest injury is a major Red Sox storyline heading into the season, but there's more where that came from in the rotation. Here's a full breakdown of the starting pitching situation for 2022.
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Can Nathan Eovaldi make another Cy Young case?
With Sale sidelined, Nathan Eovaldi was forced to step up as the de facto ace of the Red Sox rotation. The veteran right-hander answered the call with a phenomenal season.
You could make the argument that Eovaldi was Boston's MVP in 2021. He made his first All-Star team and finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an American League-leading 2.79 FIP and MLB-best 1.7 BB/9. Injuries have been an issue for Eovaldi throughout his 10-year career, but he stayed healthy and led the team with 182 1/3 innings pitched and 32 starts.
If Sale isn't himself, it might take another stellar season from Eovaldi for the Red Sox to sneak into the postseason again in 2022. As great as his 2021 season was, that may be asking too much from the 32-year-old. One would think there should be some regression to the mean. He's looked impressive in spring training, however, so perhaps he'll simply pick up where he left off.
Eovaldi will be Boston's Opening Day starter vs. the New York Yankees on April 7.
What's Nick Pivetta's ceiling?
Pivetta was one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2021 Red Sox season. The former Philadelphia Phillies right-hander proved himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter. The numbers don't jump off the page, but Pivetta could be counted on to take the ball every fifth day and give Boston a chance to win.
This season, Sox fans will hope Pivetta can reach another level. He's always had the stuff to be a frontline starter, but an occasional lack of command has prevented him from making the leap. The 29-year-old recorded an impressive 10.2 K/9 last season, though he'll have to work on cutting down his high walk rate of 3.8 BB/9.
Pivetta was one of Boston's postseason stars, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 9.2 K/9 in three appearances (one start). While it's a small sample size, it displayed Pivetta's potential and showed he can shine on the big stage. If he carries that momentum into 2022, he could turn into one of the team's most valuable players. Especially if Sale is out.
Can Tanner Houck take the next step?
Often referred to as the "right-handed Chris Sale," Houck has a big year ahead of him. He'll look to stick in Boston's rotation after making 13 starts in 2021. As long as that filthy slider is working, the 25-year-old should have no problem doing so.
Houck logged a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 18 total appearances with the big-league club last season. The Red Sox will gladly take those numbers, but they'll hope to see Houck make a leap in Year 3 of his MLB career. He couldn't be counted on to go deep into games, never exceeding 5 1/3 innings in any of his 13 starts. Opposing hitters had a slash line of .353/.450/.765 when facing him for the third time in a game. That's an area that needs to improve before we can officially label Houck a reliable starting pitcher.
The offseason additions
Starting pitching was the primary need for the Red Sox this offseason as Eduardo Rodriguez, Martin Perez, and Garrett Richards left in free agency. Chaim Bloom and Co. replaced that trio with Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and James Paxton.
Wacha and Hill will begin the year in the rotation while Paxton continues his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The former Mariners and Yankees southpaw is expected to join the Sox pitching staff sometime this summer.
Wacha, 30, had a 5.05 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 29 appearances (23 starts) with the Tampa Bay Rays last year. The former All-Star right-hander could bounce between the rotation and bullpen this season -- similar to Perez and Richards last year -- depending on which version of him shows up. Wacha finished the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA over his final seven starts.
Hill is back for his third stint in Boston. The 42-year-old left-hander is still chugging along, coming off a solid season between the Mets and Rays. He posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Paxton pitched 1 1/3 innings last season before suffering an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. In his last full season (omitting the 2020 COVID year), he went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the Yankees. If he can duplicate that kind of production in his return from Tommy John, his one-year, $10 million contract with a 2023 team option will look like a slam-dunk.
