Assessing the new-look Red Sox outfield for 2023

If the Boston Red Sox exceed expectations in 2023, their new-look outfield will be one of the biggest reasons why.

Japanese star Masataka Yoshida has the potential to be one of Boston's best pure hitters. When healthy, Adam Duvall is an above-average defensive center fielder who's a good bet for 30 or more homers. Alex Verdugo still has another level to his game he can reach.

More Red Sox previews: Catcher | Infield

If all three starting outfielders reach their ceilings, it'll play a major role in the Red Sox surprising some people this year. Of course, that's a major "if" and there are just as many question marks as there are reasons for optimism.

Here's a closer look at the Red Sox outfield situation ahead of Opening Day, plus best and worst-case scenarios for each player.

Adam Duvall, CF

2022 stats: .213/.276/.401, 12 HR, 36 RBI (86 games)

The Red Sox signed Duvall to a one-year, $7 million contract in January. The move was in response to Trevor Story's elbow injury, which forced Kiké Hernandez to move from center field to shortstop.

Duvall was limited to only 86 games last season due to a torn tendon in his wrist. When healthy, he's proven capable of bringing a ton of pop to a lineup and above-average defense to the outfield. The 34-year-old has three 30+ homer seasons under his belt and won a Gold Glove award in 2021.

Boston might have to move Duvall over to a corner outfield spot on occasion, but that shouldn't be a problem if it helps him perform up to his potential at the plate. It'll help that Fenway Park is made for Duvall's swing.

Best-case scenario for 2023: Duvall puts together another 30+ homer, 100+ RBI season while providing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field.

Worst-case scenario for 2023: Duvall's age begins to show and he can't hold up as an everyday center fielder.

Masataka Yoshida, LF

2022 stats: .336/.449/.559, 21 HR, 89 RBI (121 games with Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball league)

Yoshida is one of the biggest enigmas in baseball heading into the new campaign. His numbers in Japan make him extremely intriguing, but five years and $ 90 million is a risky bet on a 29-year-old who has never played Major League Baseball. Will the contact skills translate? Can he play a solid left field or is he best served as a DH?

If Yoshida can perform at a level even close to how he played in Japan, he'll be a huge part of Boston's success in 2023. If he struggles, expect the Red Sox front office to be under even more scrutiny.

Best-case scenario for 2023: Yoshida's sensational bat-to-ball skills translate to the major leagues and he lives up to Fangraph's lofty projections, which have him finishing the season with a .867 OPS.

Worst-case scenario for 2023: MLB talent evaluators say "I told you so" after questioning the Red Sox' decision to pay Yoshida $ 90 million in free agency. Yoshida proves to be below average defensively in left field and finds out the hard way that hitting in MLB is a completely different level of difficulty.

Alex Verdugo, RF

2022 stats: .280/.328/.405, 11 HR, 75 RBI

This is shaping up to be the biggest season of Verdugo's career. Manager Alex Cora named Verdugo as the Red Sox player who needs to take the biggest step forward in 2023. That's because we've seen him flash his potential on a number of occasions, but the 26-year-old has yet to find consistency over the course of an entire season. For Verdugo to get the contract extension he desires, he'll have to prove he's ready to take all aspects of his game to another level.

Best-case scenario for 2023: Verdugo's production looks more like his 2020 season -- his first year in Boston -- when he slashed .308/.367/.478 with six homers in 53 games. He also makes strides as an outfielder and a baserunner, something Alex Cora challenged him to do heading into this year.

Worst-case scenario for 2023: Another season, similar to 2022, in which we wonder whether Verdugo will ever live up to his promising potential.

Rob Refsnyder, OF

2022 stats: .307/.384/.497, 6 HR, 21 RBI (57 games)

Refsnyder was one of the few bright spots of Boston's last-place 2022 season. A former top prospect in the New York Yankees organization, Refsnyder stepped up as a productive fourth outfielder for a Red Sox club that desperately needed outfield depth. He'll look to produce similar results in the same role this year.

Best-case scenario for 2023: Refsnyder picks up where he left off last season as a tremendous fourth outfielder.

Worst-case scenario for 2023: Refsnyder regresses to the mean and can't hold a spot on the big-league roster.

Jarren Duran, CF

2022 stats: .221/.283/.363, 3 HR, 17 RBI (58 games)

This year very well could be do-or-die for Duran. Boston's former top outfield prospect struggled both at the plate and defensively last season. His issues finally boiled to the surface in August when he dropped two fly balls in Kansas City and argued with heckling fans. The 26-year-old needs to keep his cool in 2023 while showing why he was once considered the Red Sox' future franchise center fielder. The tools are there.

Best-case scenario for 2023: Duran finally figures it out and looks like the player he was hyped up to be when he was a top prospect in the organization. He puts his exciting blend of power and speed on display while providing adequate defense in center field.

Worst-case scenario for 2023: Another disappointing season that leaves his future as a big-leaguer, especially in Boston, in doubt.