Tomase: As Orioles surge, Red Sox may face sobering AL East reality

Ready to feel despondent, despairing and depressed?

This might be the closest the Red Sox get to the Orioles for the next three years.

No one saw this coming. Projected to lose 100 games again this season, the O's instead are accelerating comparisons to last decade's Astros, who turned high draft picks into the core of the 2017 World Series winners and remain powerhouses today.

Houston's former assistant GM, Mike Elias, is building a similar program in the Charm City in ways that should make Red Sox fans obsessed with the Yankees, Rays, and Jays wish they had paid a little more attention to their rear flank.

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The Orioles are what the Red Sox want to be under chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, with the No. 1 farm system in baseball, top-tier prospects who are either in the big leagues or on the doorstep, and the ability to significantly increase their payroll, perhaps as soon as this winter.

The Red Sox are nowhere near this goal. They are in fact much closer to disarray, with more potential holes than solutions on the immediate horizon. They should get used to looking up at the O's, because that gap is only going to widen.

I need a drink.

Back in the good old days of early May, the Orioles still represented an opportunity to rest, regroup, and maybe pad some stats. If New York, Boston, Tampa, and Toronto wanted to repeat last year's feat of winning 90 games apiece, then someone would have to lose a buck-ten. Enter the O's.

Baltimore's last winning season came in 2016, when Edwin Encarnacion and the Jays walked off with the AL wild card game. Only the 2020 Red Sox interrupted a five-year run in last place, but three times Baltimore lost at least 108 games.

Those days are gone. The Orioles are ahead of schedule, and they just keep winning.

On Friday night, with the Red Sox fighting for their playoff lives, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Cora melted down en route to ejections, Red Sox pitchers served up five homers covering over 2,000 feet, and the no-name Orioles romped to a 15-10 victory.

Watch: Bogaerts, Cora ejected for arguing controversial strike call

They're now 62-57, 3.5 games ahead of the last-place Red Sox and just 1.5 games behind the Rays for the final wild card spot.

They're doing it without ace John Means, who made just two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. They're doing it without standout play from center fielder Cedric Mullins, whose numbers have dropped across the board from last year's All-Star campaign.

They're doing it without the closest thing they had to a franchise icon in Trey Mancini and the only All-Star on the roster in closer Jorge Lopez, who were not only traded at the deadline, but to AL playoff contenders Houston and Minnesota, respectively.

And the worst part is, they haven't even gotten started. Catcher Adley Rutschman is the first of their top prospects to arrive; the switch hitter looks like a franchise player and future MVP candidate, with power from both sides and game-changing defensive ability. He's already what they had hoped former All-Star Matt Wieters would be.

Baseball America just named Baltimore's farm system No. 1 while also highlighting two of the top five prospects in the game in third baseman Gunnar Henderson (No. 2) and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (No. 5). Both should reach the big leagues next year.

Down the road there's also Matt Holliday's kid, Jackson, the No. 1 overall pick in last month's draft.

Were the Orioles simply relying on prospects, their ceiling might be something along the lines of Tampa Bay. But Elias is already on record saying that he plans to "significantly escalate the payroll" from $48 million this winter, and there's precedent for it. Only five years ago, the O's spent almost $170 million, with stars like Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones.

So this is what the Red Sox potentially face in baseball's toughest division: an Orioles club that not only summons blue-chip prospects, but splurges on a star like Mets Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom or Braves All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox will likely be trying to replace shortstop Xander Bogaerts, DH J.D. Martinez, and right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, while also figuring out if they need to trade third baseman Rafael Devers. And they won't be able to rely on internal solutions beyond hulking first baseman Triston Casas, because most of their best prospects, like shortstop Marcelo Mayer, remain in the lower levels.

The two franchises appear pointed in completely opposite directions, which has created a disturbing, disquieting, distasteful possibility -- when next season begins, the rest of the AL East will circle the Red Sox as their break in the schedule.