With the playoffs approaching, Evan Drellich will look at various decisions the Red Sox are going to have to make on their postseason roster. Today: First base.
Previously in the series: The rotation.
BOSTON — Red Sox manager Alex Cora basically declared on Monday that, in general, he won’t overreact to recent events as the Sox make playoff roster decisions.
"It doesn’t matter,” Cora said of smaller sample sizes. “You know, we know that there’s matchups we can take advantage of it, regardless of who, if it’s a righty vs. a righty, lefty vs. a lefty. We’ll talk. We’ll start digging into the information. One of the teams [we may face in the first round] we know, we know really well. The other one, we don’t know honestly. So we’ll talk about it. But I think small sample size really doesn’t matter.”
Whether Mitch Moreland’s downturn counts as a small sample size inside the 2018 season is actually a debate that could be had on its own. Moreland started at first base in Game 1 the doubleheader and had two of the Sox' 22 hits in a 19-3 rout. He and entered the game with a .177/.258/.305 line in the second half. He hit .300 or better in the first two months of the season and has been under .200 in September, just as he was in July.
Those are unsettling numbers as the Sox arrive in the playoffs. Cora gave Moreland a little down time last week on the road to try to get him going.
“Health-wise he's good,” Cora said last week in New York. “Hitting, he's struggling right now. You see it mechanics-wise. He's very pull-happy. He's swinging and missing a lot. So just stay away from him today. Maybe tomorrow. Kind of like, I don't want to say like Jackie [Bradley Jr. earlier this season]. I haven't talked to him about it. But just mentally, kind of like give him a breather and relax. And see if we can get back to what he was doing in the first part of the season.”
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But there are some numbers that should produce optimism.
In the second half, Moreland has still made good contact. Per BaseballSavant.com, Moreland has the team's second-highest combined rate of barrels and solid contact since the All-Star Game, behind only Jackie Bradley Jr.
At 3.1 percent of pitches either barreled or struck solidly in the second half, Moreland entered Wednesday right in company with Mookie Betts (3.0) and J.D. Martinez (2.9). Bradley was at 3.7 percent.
Blake Swihart could play first base, although experience at the position has some value — i.e. on ranging to balls to one's right. Brock Holt could play over there, although he may be needed elsewhere around the infield. Right-handed hitting Steve Pearce (.316 BA, .974 OPS vs. lefties) has raked against southpaws.
“The way Brock is swinging the bat, he’s a guy that we count on,” Cora said Monday. “We’ll throw our best lineup on a nightly basis in the playoffs. Whoever we feel can do the job that night.”
Still, it’s hard to see the Sox getting away from Moreland, given the power he is capable of and his defense.
As a left-handed batter, Moreland’s OPS is .100 points lower this year vs. left-handed pitchers than righties. If the Sox do enact some plan other than using Moreland, presumably, it would involve lefty arms.
If Moreland was good enough to plan around when Hanley Ramirez was released — and he was — he should still be good enough to get the bulk of the plate appearances now.