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J.D. Martinez has spent virtually his entire Red Sox career in a perpetual state of limbo.
Part of that owes to the structure of the five-year, $110 million contract he signed in 2018, which included opt-outs after the second, third, and fourth seasons. Martinez spent each of those campaigns at least pondering the possibility of testing the market. Each time, he ultimately decided to stay put.
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SIGN UP HERE The part of the equation he could not control was the arrival of Chaim Bloom in 2019, which coincided with ownership's desire to slash payroll and drop below the luxury tax. Had Martinez opted out in any of those seasons, the Red Sox almost certainly would've let him walk to pocket the savings. After all, Bloom's first consequential move was trading MVP Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.
Martinez has known that he could be traded at any time, despite posting All-Star production throughout the first four years of his deal, but the same market forces that kept him from opting out also made a trade unlikely.
Those forces have changed, however. The introduction of the universal DH has opened up the National League to a player with Martinez's skills. The expansion of the luxury tax from $210 million to $230 million means some financial behemoths have more money to spend. Add the fact that Martinez's contract is expiring and it creates the conditions -- if not necessarily the likelihood -- that he could be moved before this season.
The thought has certainly entered his mind.
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"Oh yeah, every year I felt like I could be, just because of my opt-outs, be a trade candidate," Martinez said. "This year, especially, with the NL and it being my last year."
We've already laid out the massive advantage the Red Sox have enjoyed at designated hitter since the arrival of David Ortiz in 2003. Their .892 OPS is nearly 80 points higher than runner-up Cleveland. They've launched 100 more home runs than anyone else, driven in 300 more runs, and recorded nearly 800 more total bases.
Trading Martinez would eliminate that advantage and remove the hitter who remains one of the most important bats in their lineup and weaken their attack.
It would also subtract a hitter who has thrived in Boston, which isn't for everyone. While he admits feeling excitement at the possibilities the NL DH has opened for him, he also said he has made it clear to management that he'd prefer to stay in Boston, even beyond this year.
"I would love it," he said. "I've expressed where I stand with the team and I would love to finish my career here. That isn't up to me, really."
With power-hitting prospect Triston Casas arriving as soon as this year and Rafael Devers not a sure bet to remain at third, the Red Sox will soon have other potentially productive options at DH. With Martinez turning 35 in August, Bloom and Co. have undoubtedly considered succession plans.
If they want to move on from the four-time All-Star in the fall, it's hard to argue the shift to a younger DH. But in the meantime, they'd be best served letting him finish what he started and play out one final season in the middle of a lineup that immediately becomes far less potent without him in it.
