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On paper, the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins are perfect trade partners. The Red Sox have a glaring need for controllable starting pitching at the top of their rotation and the Marlins could use a big bat.
Both have the assets to make such a deal happen. In fact, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report the Marlins are interested in trading "a significant player" for Red Sox first base prospect Triston Casas.
Tomase: Would Red Sox trade Casas for one of Marlins' young arms?
Casas enters 2023 as the No. 2 ranked prospect in the Red Sox organization and projects to be the team's Opening Day starter at first base. Miami almost certainly would have to part ways with one of its top starting pitchers in order to pry him away from Boston. Jackson and Mish mention Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Edward Cabrera as the most likely candidates to be moved. Jesus Luzardo's name doesn't come up in the Miami Herald report, but the southpaw is another option that could intrigue the Red Sox front office. Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 National League Cy Young award winner, is off the table.
It's also worth noting the Red Sox -- after losing star shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency -- reportedly have expressed interest in Marlins middle infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. Perhaps one of them could be included in a trade package with one of the aforementioned starters.
While the Marlins' young arms aren't exactly household names, they would be significant upgrades to the top of the Red Sox starting rotation. But would adding one of those pitchers be worth parting ways with one of the organization's most exciting prospects?
To help answer that question, here's a breakdown of each Marlins starter that could be available in a deal.
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Pablo Lopez, RHP
Lopez was a popular name before the 2021 MLB trade deadline, so it's no surprise he's the subject of trade rumors this offseason. He seems to be the most likely Marlins pitcher to be moved.
The right-hander is entering his age 27 season and is under team control through the 2024 campaign. While there are question marks, he's shown real upside over the last two seasons. In 2021, he set a Major League Baseball record by striking out the first nine batters of the game vs. the Atlanta Braves. He finished that season with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts.
The catch is that before 2022, Lopez hadn't pitched more than 111.1 innings in a season. He finally topped that mark with 180 innings across 32 starts last year as he amassed a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Those are solid numbers, but trading Casas for another mid-rotation arm who has made 30+ starts only once in his five-year career seems unwise.
Jesus Luzardo, LHP
The Marlins acquired Luzardo from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for outfielder Starling Marte before the 2021 trade deadline. The 25-year-old initially struggled in Miami, but he showed flashes of his tremendous potential in 2022.
Luzardo posted a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 18 starts (100.1 innings) with the Marlins last season. He missed a chunk of the year due to a forearm strain suffered in May. Still, the former top prospect pitched more than 100 innings and showed off his serious upside for the first time in his big-league career.
Luzardo is a candidate for a breakout 2023 campaign if he can stay healthy and he's under team control for four more seasons. That said, it just wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to part ways with Casas for an unproven arm with injury concerns.
Trevor Rogers, LHP
Rogers was phenomenal for the Marlins in 2021. He was selected to his first All-Star Game and finished the year with a sparkling 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts (133 innings). He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Cincinnati Reds infielder Jonathan India.
The 25-year-old left-hander came crashing back down to earth in 2022. He posted a 4-11 record with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 23 starts (107 innings).
In order to acquire Casas, the Marlins undoubtedly would have to include another piece or two along with Rogers. His regression in 2022 all but ruined his trade value, though being under team control for four more years is a plus. This one just doesn't move the needle as much as Lopez, or the final arm on this list...
Edward Cabrera, RHP
Cabrera was the Marlins' No. 2 ranked prospect and he showed flashes of his star potential in 2022 after a rough start to his career in 2021. The 24-year-old righty had a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 14 starts (71.2 innings). He's under team control for another six years.
As enticing as Cabrera's ceiling might be, the Red Sox already have a young former top prospect in their rotation in Brayan Bello. Trading Casas for Cabrera would be an interesting swap of young talent, but keeping Casas' bat in the lineup probably would be more beneficial than adding another unproven arm to the mix. Of course, the potential upside of a Bello/Cabrera 1-2 punch in the rotation is fun to dream about.
