What stays, what goes: Time for Patriots to narrow offensive repertoire

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FOXBORO -- Josh McDaniels sat in a mostly empty room at Gillette Stadium, one built to handle every member of the Patriots football operation for team meetings, and he smiled as he remembered what Bill Belichick told him toward the end of the 2018 season. Their offense, following losses to Miami and Pittsburgh, was struggling to find its identity.

"One of the things that I'm so thoroughly impressed with Bill on," McDaniels told NFL Films, "is his ability to adapt and evolve. He said, 'If you keep holding onto what you'd rather be -- no huddle, spread formations, 34 points a game -- then you're probably going to end up regretting a lot of things at the end of the year.'

"What are we really good at? What's the most consistent part of our team offensively? And then you commit to it. We had been a pretty decent running football team. It was something we felt like our personnel fit.

"It's gonna be I-formation, running a lead play, gaining six yards. Line up. Do it again. You gotta be content trying to win this way because this is the way we can win. I think our team really embraced that. We were adaptable."

That approach helped power the Patriots to a sixth Lombardi Trophy. But eight months after watching confetti fall in Atlanta, the Patriots are now searching for their offensive identity once again. 

The running game that they relied upon late last season has been a struggle to re-establish as they adjust to life without a few of the driving forces behind its success: Rob Gronkowski retired; Trent Brown and Dwayne Allen left via free agency; David Andrews landed on injured reserve before the regular season; James Develin landed on injured reserve in Week 3.

Now, one month into the 2019 season, without some of their best blockers, the Patriots are 28th in the league in rushing, averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

Belichick's teams are often pointed to as ones that use September to figure themselves out. It's "an extension of the preseason" for Belichick, it's often noted. That hasn't been uttered much this year because this iteration of the Patriots is undefeated. It seems like they have a pretty good grip on most of that which they're doing. Defensively they're on a record-setting pace in a number of categories. Offensively, their attack has helped the team post 122 points through four games.

But both Belichick and Tom Brady suggested this week that they're still trying to figure out what it is they can't and can't do when they have the football.

"We gotta figure out what we can do well," Brady told WEEI's Greg Hill Show Monday following a win in Buffalo that featured one offensive touchdown. "We gotta figure out the things that we just gotta throw out, that we're not doing a good job of and probably won't work.

"Every year your team changes. Sometimes you try certain things and you think they're going to work and they don't. Or you build on things and you're just gonna try to find ways to get better and improve, find things that we can consistently do a good job of."

Belichick echoed a similar sentiment the next day.

"I wouldn't say today's a magic day on that," Belichick explained, "but that's part of the process that we go through on a weekly basis. Like any Tuesday, I'm sure that'll come up today and there will be some action taken on certain things . . .

"What are the things that we do well? How do they matchup against our opponents? What are the things that we're not doing well? Do we want to invest more time in those with the expectation that they're going to be better, or is it time to invest our time in something else that's either do more of what we're doing or come up with a different scheme or a different identity and try to work on that? Those are coaching decisions that are really critical decisions every week for us."

The Patriots obviously aren't going to abandon their running game entirely. That'll never be the case. And they shouldn't. There are some scenarios in which the Patriots have been successful with that phase of their attack this season.

But which pages of the offensive playbook should the Patriots "throw out," as Brady put it? Which pages shouldn't be turned to quite so frequently?

BACK OFF FULLBACK RUNS?

Even before Develin was injured, the Patriots were having a hard time running behind their trusted neck-roll enthusiast. They ran 28 times out of 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) -- a staple package of their postseason success -- and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. 

In Weeks 3 and 4, since Develin's been out, the Patriots have understandably been more reluctant to utilize those sets, but the numbers have improved. Jakob Johnson is now the choice at the fullback position, and over the last two weeks out of "21" the Patriots are averaging 4.2 yards per carry on 13 attempts. 

Overall, they're averaging 3.2 yards per carry out of those heavier "21" formations. Do they stick with it after seeing a little more progress in the last two weeks? Or will Johnson's relative lack of experience -- in his first year in the NFL, signed through the International Player Pathway Program -- make the Patriots reluctant to continue to trot out the groupings that were so valuable to them in 2018? 

If they continue to roll with "21," one way they could up their overall efficiency in that grouping would be to throw more. They're 14-for-23 in 2019 with that personnel grouping, and they're averaging 8.7 yard per attempt, making it one of their most effective passing packages.

LEAVE OUT OUTSIDE ZONE?

The running game on first down has been completely bogged down for the Patriots in 2019. They run on 55 percent of their 1st-and-10 plays, and they've only been successful on 43 percent of those, according to Sharp Football Stats. ("Success" is defined by picking up 40 percent of the yardage needed for a first down on first down, 50 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down.) When they pass on first down, they're successful 70 percent of the time.

Sony Michel carries have been particularly ineffective on first down this season. He's averaging 2.9 yards per attempt on first and second down as the team's usual first and second-down runner.

Of the plays that have been particularly ineffective -- candidates to be thrown out -- are zone runs to the outside. Zone runs, where blockers are blocking an area as opposed to a man, that go to the outside are leaned on heavily by offenses run by the likes of Sean McVay and his sprouting coaching tree. 

The Patriots incorporate them into their varied rushing attack as well, but they haven't worked this year. Michel has been given the football on outside zone plays 18 times and picked up a total of 21 yards. 

Without an experienced tight end on the roster, and with moving parts at tackle, runs to the outside have been particularly difficult. Even for backs not named Michel, they've been difficult. Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden have combined on four outside zone carries to pick up just eight yards (though one of those was a two-yard touchdown by Burkhead). 

Adding Ben Watson at tight end might help the Patriots improve on those plays, but he's been a negatively-graded run-blocker each of the last three seasons.

If the Patriots want to stress the edges in the running game, their more gimmicky plays have been very efficient. They have 37 yards on seven carries of that ilk -- reverses, jet sweeps, end-around pitches -- including a Bolden touchdown last weekend. 

If the Patriots are desperate to get their running game going, Burkhead has been the best option behind an offensive line that needs the help of running back quickness to force defenders to miss tackles near the line of scrimmage. Burkhead is averaging over four yards per carry regardless of how he's used; he averages 4.6 yards per carry when the Patriots are under center and 4.7 yards per carry from shotgun formations. 

Even James White, primarily a receiving back, has good numbers from the gun, averaging 6.5 yards per carry on four shotgun carries. 

Fewer runs on first down, fewer runs from heavy packages and fewer outside zone runs all might do the Patriots offense some good based on their numbers from the first four weeks. More runs from spread looks, more jet-sweeps, and more runs with quicker backs to help the offensive line might also be beneficial. 

PUT PONY IN PARK?

When Gronkowski retired, and when the Patriots decided to go with Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo at tight end, the thinking was that they would help make up for the production lost in Gronkowski's absence with depth at the running back position. Coming out of the draft they had a group that featured Michel, Burkhead, White, Bolden and rookie third-round choice Damien Harris. 

But the 20-personnel (two backs, no tight ends) looks we expected to see -- and saw a lot of in Week 1 -- haven't been as effective as anticipated. Out of "20" the Patriots have averaged 5.8 yards per play on 47 plays. They average 4.0 yards per rush out of "20" and 5.9 yards per attempt. 

Sharp Football Stats has the Patriots down for just a 38 percent success rate out of 20 personnel this season. Compared to New England's 11-personnel (7.7 yards per attempt, 48 percent success) and 10-personnel (9.2 yards per attempt, 63 percent success), "20" doesn't quite measure up. 

If the Patriots were set on continuing to utilize "20" because of their depth at running back, there are certain deployments of "20" that make sense. 

When the Patriots go with two backs in the backfield out of the shotgun, what's referred to as their "Pony" set, they aren't all that efficient in the passing game, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. When they spread things out, however, and go with two backs on the field with Brady in the shotgun and either four or five targets wide, they average 6.7 yards per attempt. That's still well below Brady's yards-per-attempt number four seasons (7.6, 7.9, 8.2, 7.6), but it's better than their split-back look. 

Running from "20" has been more efficient than other packages. They average 4.25 yards per carry out of that grouping, but many of those runs came with Develin lead-blocking, and he's no longer available.

SUMMING IT UP

It's only four weeks, but based on some of these numbers, there are a few things that look like trends.

The Patriots look like they'd be better off relying more on their passing game on first down and passing, not running, out of heavier formations. They look like they'd be better off by getting away from their outside zone runs and utilizing more jet-motion runs. They look like they'd be better off running with quicker backs and out of more spread formations. They look like they'd be better off with fewer two-back passing sets, but if they want to keep using them, they should go four or five-wide and let Brady find the best matchup quickly. 

Like any year, the Patriots will use the first month of the season to find themselves. They're adjusting to new personnel. They're figuring things out. 

What helps Belichick, Brady and McDaniels is that they're not racing against the clock the way they were late last year to define what they are as an offense. But they can't just hope against hope at this point that things are going to improve in certain areas, either.

With a month in the books, they can re-focus, they can zero-in on the things they do well and excise the things they don't. 

They have to, Belichick explained.

"We only have so many plays in practice, we only have so much meeting time and so much walkthrough," he said. "We can't put in 100 plays every week. We have to be selective in the ones that we install, practice and prepare for the game, so we don't want to waste time with stuff that doesn't fit that criteria. Which ones do we stick with, which ones do we move on from, which ones do we modify? . . . 

"There's only so much time. You can't do it all."

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