Curran: Week 2 vs. Steelers is close to a must-win game for Pats

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Phil Perry joins Trenni Casey on Early Edition to discuss what the Steelers’ defense could look like without T.J. Watt vs. the Patriots

FOXBORO -- First one to 10 points wins this Sunday in Pittsburgh? Could be.

And it could be that way for a while for your New England Patriots as a seemingly stout defense will be charged with holding down opponents until The Collaboration figures out what it wants its offense to be about how it wants Mac Jones to carry things out.

Fortunately, the Patriots are facing a Steelers team that can be muzzled. In their season-opening win at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh had 13 possessions. One ended with a touchdown. Three ended with field goals. None of them went more than 60 yards or lasted more than eight plays. Ten of them were six plays or fewer. They went 4-for-15 on third down in Mitch Trubisky’s first start and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft went 21-for-38 for 194 yards (that’s 4.9 YPA … really low).

How’d they win? Mitch didn’t throw a pick. Swaggerin’ Joe Burrow threw four, fumbled once and got sacked seven times.

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So you see where this is headed. A Patriots defense that did a very credible job holding down a talented Dolphins offense in the heat of Miami is going to be asked to do the same against a lesser group this week. And they will have to because Pittsburgh will be licking its chops after seeing the Patriots offense wander aimlessly through Week 1. How did New England’s eight possessions end? Interception, punt, fumble, punt, touchdown, punt, downs, fumble, ballgame.

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Has it occurred to a defensive leader and old lion like Devin McCourty that there’s extra heat on the New England defense to carry the day?

“When you start thinking like that you’re setting yourself up to start playing some pretty bad football,” McCourty said. “You gotta do your job. I’ve been very fortunate to sit in captains meetings and have veterans, even being around here with Tom (Brady) and he said, ‘Each group goes on the field with a task to do. The defense’s task is to not let the offense score points. Offense’s job is to score points. The special teams’ job is to do your job and make big plays in the kicking game. I think that’s the mentality that all phases need to have.

“If we’re out there on defense saying, ‘We need to do this to make our offense better ...’ you’re on your way to having not such a good football team. How we help the offense out is by doing our job -- getting turnovers, playing good defense. The offense will handle what the offense needs to do. I’ve never felt pressure to try to make up for the other side of the ball and I don’t think in my time here the offense has felt that way.

"The offense preached scoring," McCourty concluded. "Whether we sucked on defense or were great on defense, they still wanted to score points. I think that has to be the mentality for all three phases, doing the job at a high level."

Can the New England offense become semi-productive? Bill Belichick -- who’s been polishing turds at an amazing rate this summer -- suggested last Sunday’s offensive performance was better than it looked. The Patriots put up almost as many yards as the Dolphins, said Belichick (271 to Miami’s 307) and six of New England’s eight drives reached at least midfield. Break out the sheet cake!!  

In reality, the Patriots issues on offense are systemic. Playing Kendrick Bourne more, getting their money’s worth out of Jonnu Smith or hoping Trent Brown blocks the right guy will help but -- as analyst after analyst pointed out this week -- the Patriots plan as hatched by The Collaboration felt primitive, repetitive and incohesive. 

With a blitz-happy Steelers defense coming at them -- even without T.J. Watt -- it’s going to be harder this week than it was in Miami. And with former Patriots defensive coordinator Brian Flores now on the Steelers staff, it could get diabolical.

Which is bad news for Mac Jones, who had a bad back coming out of Miami and had a bad front (flu-like symptoms) at the end of the week. The Patriots need to straddle the line between being aggressive and not getting their most important player demolished.

Defensively, the Patriots have to get off the field faster. Four of Miami’s eight drives were 10 plays or more. On the Dolphins first drive last week, they converted their first third down then -- facing fourth-and-1 -- Patriots defensive tackle Carl Davis smacked the center before the snap. Miami ended with a field goal. They converted a third-and-1, two third-and-7s and a fourth-and-7 before the half was out.  

Fortunately for the Patriots, there’s no combo of Waterbugs From Hell Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to deal with this week. Pittsburgh’s best threat against Cincy was tight end Pat Freiermuth (5 catches on 10 targets for 75 yards). The Patriots should have enough depth and talent at safety to bottle him up. And they should be tough enough up front to hold down a Steelers running game that got 30 yards on 13 carries from it’s running backs against Cincy.

Who wins will come down to which offense gets choked out faster. I’m guessing it will be the Steelers that get left gasping. This is a massive game for the Patriots. A loss means an 0-4 start is most definitely in play with the Ravens and a trip to Green Bay dead ahead.

It’s as close to a must-win game as a Week 2 game can be.

Prediction: Patriots 13, Steelers 9

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