Curran's Patriots-Rams Preview: Inside a fascinating chess match
The Patriots can sweep their two-game jaunt to Los Angeles in a Super Bowl LIII rematch against the NFC West-leading Rams. Tom E. Curran breaks down the Week 14 matchup and shares his prediction.
Look at all the things the Rams are statistically proficient at. Third in the league in yards per game offensively. Second in the game in yards per game defensively.
Then go find the Patriots. Twelfth in team defense. Twenty-second in team offense. Look at the records – the Rams at 8-4, the Patriots on a tear to get back to 6-6.
Why wouldn’t a Rams win be a layup? Matchups. It’s all matchups. On offense, defense, the kicking game and on the sidelines, this game is going to be all about the chess match between the Rams offense and Patriots defense and the rockfight between the Patriots offense and the Rams defense.
Can the Patriots sweep their L.A. excursion? They just might.
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This is speed and aggressiveness vs. size and power. The Rams understand what they’re in for in this game – a mass of offensive humanity crashing down on their front seven as the Patriots try to get downhill on them.
Can L.A. bring enough humans to stop that from happening with Damien Harris, Sony Michel and Cam Newton (nod to space-clearer Jakob Johnson here)? And when the Rams do get enough humans in the box, can Newton be short-game accurate enough to hit simple shots on the perimeter?
The Rams – led by Jalen Ramsey in the secondary – are ultra-fast and break on everything. Double-moves will be available. For Newton – who’s thrown for 153 yards total in the past eight quarters – this can either be a shining prime-time moment when he takes advantage of being taken lightly or a sad reality check on just how limited he is at throwing footballs overhand and with accuracy.
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This is going to be a fascinating chess match to watch.
The Rams are a lot like the Denver Broncos used to be under Mike Shanahan with play-action bootlegs that get Jared Goff on the move and rolling outside the pocket to survey and make – in Goff’s instance – short and secure throws. Rams head coach Sean McVay is a Shanahan disciple from when he worked under him at Washington. Goff is coming off a capable game which followed a terrible one against the 49ers. He has to be managed in a way similar to the Kyle Shanahan-Jimmy Garoppolo union. It’s a “just don’t screw it up” mentality.
The Rams try to win with wideout quickness and precision from Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The Patriots should have enough to deal with them in their secondary. The stress is on the Patriots linebackers to stay sound. This is a perfect “wait for the mistake” game for New England because Goff is almost certain to make one.
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Johnny Hekker, the Rams punter, has long been a Belichick favorite. This year, though, the Rams are giving up 15.5 yards on their 14 punt returns including an 88-yard touchdown return. Given the Patriots’ success on punt returns the past two weeks, be stunned if Gunner Olszewski gets a chance to bring one back.
The Rams have had a hard time on field goals. They’ve gotten decent returns recently from Matt Gay, who’s 5-for-7 on field-goal attempts and 10-for-10 on PATs, but he missed a 37-yarder last week. The Patriots are solid as they come in the kicking game. All facets.
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QUESTIONABLE: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (groin), DL Adam Butler (shoulder), DL Byron Cowart (back), DB Kyle Dugger (toe), K Nick Folk (back), DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder), TE Ryan Izzo (hamstring, hand, neck), CB J.C. Jackson (hip, knee), FB Jakob Johnson (knee), CB Jonathan Jones (neck), G Shaq Mason (calf), QB Cam Newton (abdomen), WR Matthew Slater (knee), RB J.J. Taylor (quadricep).
QUESTIONABLE: K Matt Gay (shoulder).
Sean McVay overcoming the aura of Bill
There’s no denying McVay regards Belichick as a coaching deity. As well he should. But McVay can’t be half in a panic over what Belichick may or may not do scheme-wise to the point the Rams are playing scared. Or coaching scared. McVay’s a smart guy and he’s self-flagellated over his performance in SB53. What’s he learned?
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Cam Newton
There is a very good chance Newton doesn’t crack 100 yards passing again this week. It’s insane to contemplate this as a route to success but the Patriots are doing it because of the threat Newton brings as a runner. Newton’s not going to spring chunk plays in the air or on the ground. It’s the 2-yard carry on fourth-and-1. The 6-yard completion on third-and-6.
The hammering he and the rest of the Patriots offense applies on those long drives and the knee-buckling conversions on "gotta have it" plays are fuel for the Patriots offensive engine.
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Robert Woods
The style of the Rams offense makes them a little tougher to have one corner “travel” with a particular receiver. They often line up stacked to the same side and create traffic with their releases. The ball comes out fast and the vast majority of yards in the Rams passing game comes after the catch.
Woods and Cooper Kupp are almost identical in terms of production in the passing game but Woods gets work in the running game as well (20 carries for 115 yards this year). Everybody will have a hand in making sure he doesn’t go off.
“He’s an outstanding player. He can wreck a game. There’s no play he’s not a factor on, he’s right in the middle of the defense. Can’t really get away from him on any run or pass play. You have to deal with him blocking on every play. He’s definitely a major factor in the game. We’re going to have to do a good job on him.”
– Bill Belichick on Rams DT and future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald
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“Let’s have a great plan. Let’s be ready to adjust and adapt accordingly. Because the agility that they demonstrate as a football team is something that I think has been a real strength of theirs. I think that’s something that we’ve gotten better at, but you’ve got to put yourself in a position to have great preparation and make sure that you do a great job of trying to make good decisions that are in alignment with putting the players in good spots.”
– Sean McVay, Rams coach, on being ready to adapt
