Patriots-Bills Preview: Keys to a New England victory in Week 8
The Patriots face a pivotal Week 8 game against the rival Bills in Buffalo on Sunday. What must New England do to avoid a fourth straight loss? Find out in Tom E. Curran's preview.
For the Buffalo Bills, a chance to not only wallop a wounded Patriots team but flex over them is all they’ve wanted for about 20 years. Is this the “changing of the AFC East guard” we’ve talked so much about the past few months? The Patriots are 2-4 with their best offensive player -- Julian Edelman -- ruled out, and their best defensive player -- Stephon Gilmore -- listed as questionable. The Bills, meanwhile, are 5-2 with the arrow pointing up. It just. Might. Be.
But how Buffalo is it that the stadium’s not even open for a day and night of grave-dancing and table-smashing? That #BillsMafia will have to enjoy this away from Rich Stadium or Ralph Wilson Stadium or New Era Field or whatever they call that walled slab of concrete out there. Basements, backyards and living rooms all over Western New York will be filled with joyous noises and sailing sex toys. Together. Apart.
The Patriots have to convert third downs. Because their offense was already really bad before losing the injured Julian Edelman and the ineffective N’Keal Harry, it almost always takes them three cracks to go 30 feet. No chunk plays for them. So however they can get to third-and-3 or so, they have to do it. To me, the best chance is putting the ball in the hands of your best player. Newton is the most talented, but the most reliable? That’s James White (one catch last week) and/or Rex Burkhead. Screens, swings, wheels, RPOs, straight-ahead handoffs, the two of them – and Newton – need to account for 70 percent of the touches or more on a crap day in Buffalo.
Throw Damien Harris in there too, though the long-standing lust for him is not yet proving well-placed. The Bills can be run upon. They’re allowing 4.6 per carry and have given up 888 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Also? They are allowing 50.6 third down conversions. So even though Cam Newton is a mental work-in-progress whose throwing mechanics seem to worsen by the week and the Patriots go into this game without a single skill player who would start for another franchise, there could be … a chance.
EDGE: Bills
Is Josh Allen good? Is Josh Allen bad? Bottom line is, Josh Allen is better. And no matter if his performance dips and spikes the way every young quarterback’s has since the Stone Age, that’s all that matters. You can expect some dumb plays but you really don’t want to count on them. The hub of the Bills’ passing game has been Stefon Diggs this year. He’s caught 48 passes for 603 yards and rarely do you see a wide receiver pickup work out as seamlessly. Cole Beasley – acquired in 2019 – is the other key target for Allen while running back Devin Singletary (third round, 2019) has taken over as the lead back and is used in the passing game. Usually, you’d figure Stephon Gilmore would take on Diggs. But Gilmore, who at times had a screaming disinterest in putting himself in harm’s way last week, is nursing a knee injury that popped up on Thursday. He is questionable for this one which – coincidentally – is the final one before the NFL trade deadline.
If Gilmore is unable to go he at least won’t risk any other injury prior to the deadline. That of course makes it easier for a team to feel OK about trading for Gilmore. At this point, Gilmore might welcome that if he’s looking for a fresh start with a team that likes paying top dollar to 30-year-old corners. But I digress. The Patriots got spread out and run on with extreme prejudice by San Fran. I will bet a lot that Buffalo doesn’t gash the Pats like that.
EDGE: Bills
This game could be a battle of the booters. Punters Jake Bailey and Corey Bojorquez squaring off against each other. A duel between kickers Tyler Bass and Nick Folk. Bailey is one of the league’s best punters while Bojorquez (who the Patriots tried to stash out of sight during camp in 2018) is a big-footed fella averaging 50 yards per punt gross. Bass is 9 for 14 outside 30 yards. I remain a Nick Folk Supporter. But I wouldn’t want to see him kicking past 35 yards on Sunday. Andre Roberts, who returns punts and kickoffs and was acquired by Buffalo last offseason, is one of the league’s better return men.
EDGE: Bills
OUT: WR Julian Edelman (knee), WR N’Keal Harry (concussion), DT Carl Davis (concussion).
QUESTIONABLE: LB Shilique Calhoun (knee), DB Kyle Dugger (ankle), CB Stephon Gilmore (knee), DT Lawrence Guy (ankle), RB Damien Harris (ankle), OL Justin Herron (ankle), CB J.C. Jackson (knee), TE Dalton Keene (knee), G Shaq Mason (calf), DE John Simon (shoulder), G Joe Thuney (ankle).
OUT: G Cody Ford (knee), CB Josh Norman (hamstring).
QUESTIONABLE: DT Vernon Butler (groin), S Micah Hyde (concussion), DT Quinton Jefferson (knee), DE Jerry Hughes (foot), CB Cam Lewis (wrist), LB Matt Milano (pectoral), G Brian Winters (knee).
The wind. We’ve seen it before up there (over there?) in Buffalo. Wind whipping off whatever Great Lake that is. Passes getting blown halfway to Tonawanda. If – as advertised – the conditions are indeed YUCKY that impacts everything. Passing game, of course, but the kicking game just as much. Field position is a primary concern because every yard may seem like 10.
James White/Rex Burkhead.
The Patriots are in a pickle and – when you’re in a pickle – you go to your best players to help get you out of said pickle. White and Burkhead are the Patriots best offensive players. Not Damiere Byrd or Jakobi Meyers or Gunner Olszewski or Ryan Izzo or Isaiah Zuber. In my opinion, both backs are good but complementary players. But this is where the roster-building has landed the Patriots so … time to start creating.
Cole Beasley.
With wind an obvious factor in the forecast, Stefon Diggs’ role in the passing game is going to be diminished. Which means the underneath guy – Cole Beasley – comes into focus. He’s got 39 catches in seven games including 11 for 112 last week. Only one of those 11 catches came on a pass that traveled more than 10 yards.
“I feel like when you’re trash and when you put on performances like I did this past week, anybody can start talking to you – from the whisperers and the chirpers. But when you’re doing your job and when you’re good enough, certain people, it doesn’t even get to your desk. … I might take a hit, but at the end of the day you know who you are and that’s all that matters.” – Cam Newton on dealing with criticism.
"You've got to take that title away before we can make that statement and those guys, they still have that title hanging over there in Boston so until someone takes that crown from them, we cannot yet say that. So I'm going to hold my tongue because I don't like to put anything out there in the universe and then have to come back and eat crow so I will say that we're going to be ready for this game." – Jerry Hughes, Bills defender, on a changing of the guard in the AFC East.
Bills 12, Patriots 3
