How much is too much is too much to pay for The Guy at quarterback?
On the one hand, it is unquestionably the most valuable position on any team's roster; if you don't have a quarterback, you don't have a chance. On the other, it is possible to overextend in trying to fill that spot.
So where's the line? How do you, as a personnel chief, calibrate the sliding scale that accounts for talent, cost, age, personality and the rest of a given team's needs?
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There's a discussion to be had there. A fun one, I think, even if what sparks said discussion is nothing but a pipe dream for about two dozen cities.
Not including Houston.
There's plenty of quarterback-related questions in this week's mailbag, if you're into that kind of thing. No surprise there given the Deshaun Watson-related reporting to hit the internet on Thursday night. So that's where we'll start . . .
This is probably the best way to approach it, Trevor. So thank you. Even in the seemingly unlikely event that a disgruntled Watson gets traded . . . it would be even more unlikely that his destination is Foxboro. Nick Caserio simply can't make one of his first moves as Texans general manager to send his elite-level quarterback to his old team. Plus, the Patriots have enough in the way of roster-building to accomplish that dealing away multiple first-round picks to land a quarterback doesn't feel all that prudent.
I'd guess the most likely outcome is that Caserio and the Texans present Watson a rebuild plan he can get behind. But if he and the Texans ever find themselves at an impasse, and if he is dealt, the way I think it'd most significantly impact the Patriots is that he could land in their division.
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Curran: What Caserio's departure means for Patriots
The Jets are picking second and have two first-rounders in each of the next two years after dealing away Jamal Adams to the Seahawks. Would that be enough to get Watson into green?
The Dolphins are picking third (Houston's original pick) and have their own first-rounder this year. They have two seconds (one of them Houston's, originally) this year as well. If they offered to send Houston their No. 3 pick back, No. 18 and Tua Tagovailoa . . . plus one more first . . . might that be enough?
The Dolphins would scoop up one of the best young quarterbacks in football and become immediate contenders with a good defense and good young coach pulling the strings. The Texans would eat over $20 million in dead money, but they'd suddenly be loaded with picks and have some immediate answer at the quarterback spot. They could either A) keep Tagovailoa, go with a different position with the No. 3 pick or spin that off into further draft capital, or B) take a quarterback at No. 3 and trade Tagovailoa for more picks.
This is all one big hypothetical, of course. But if there ever was a player worth selling out to acquire, Watson might be No. 2 behind only Patrick Mahomes. And considering Adams earned the Jets two firsts, it'd cost a ridiculous bounty. I'd say you have to start with at least double the Adams price tag and then be ready to go up from there. There is no precedent for this kind of deal, featuring that kind of player at that position.
I think there are other options for them, Dave.
Throw Jimmy Garoppolo into that mix. I'm on record stating that I don't believe he's a face-of-the-franchise type of player. He's injured far too often. And when he's not, he's not efficient enough to be considered The Guy for the long haul. But he's a starting-caliber player. The Patriots still like him.
I'd include Marcus Mariota as well. He's under contract with the Raiders, but it's for $10 million. With Derek Carr turning in a top-10 quarterback kind of season in 2020, that's a steep price to pay for a backup. Could the Patriots figure out a way to pull off a trade for the quarterback who studied under Bill Belichick's pal Chip Kelly at Oregon? It was an incredibly small sample, but Mariota looked healthy and really dynamic in his brief Week 15 appearance this season.
Matthew Stafford is a nice idea, and I think you'd find some Georgia Bulldogs in Foxboro who'd be more than ready to welcome him into the locker room. The Lions would save $14 million on the cap by trading him, but he'd also eat up $19 million in dead money if traded. His contract is totally team-friendly for whichever club would acquire him (less than $20 million for 2021). But would the Lions be willing to take on that much dead money to free up cap dollars in a year when it looks like the cap could crater to $175 million?
There are other vets who could potentially be available: Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold. But I'd start with the three listed above.
Let's get to those draft options . . .
Yes, Harry, potentially. At the moment he looks like he might be the fifth passer off the board in the spring. But here's the conundrum the Patriots are facing: You could make the argument that 10 teams ahead of them in the draft order need a quarterback. (In my most recent mock draft -- universally beloved, by the way -- I had Jones as the fifth quarterback selected, going to the Vikings at No. 14.)
Perry's 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Pats miss out on first-round QB
And it's no secret that the league's most successful teams tend to be teams that have made heavy investments at the quarterback spot.
If you want to dig into those numbers even further you'll find that every team but one in this year's playoffs has a quarterback that either A) averages at least $25 million per year or B) is playing on a first-round rookie contract.
The one team with a quarterback that doesn't fit either category is Washington. Alex Smith, the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, is making $23.5 million per year on his deal with the Football Team.
All that is to say, with teams understanding better than ever the importance of the quarterback position in a league that values passing more than ever, it'd be hard to say for certain that at least one of the top five quarterbacks in this year's class will be available to the Patriots at No. 15.
If the Patriots want to give themselves the best chance at improving their offense and improving it relatively quickly, it's pretty clear where they're going to have to eventually dump some significant resources. Drafting passers in the middle rounds (outside of winning lottery tickets cashed by the Seahawks and Cowboys) or going for reclamation-project veterans (outside of last year's Titans) haven't proven to be incredibly viable strategies.
Told you. Universally. Beloved.
OK. For everyone who thought I was trolling with my last mock draft, here are a few palatable receiving trios for the Patriots next season given the free-agent and draft-day menu options:
1) The Wagyu Tomahawk: Allen Robinson, Jaylen Waddle, Jakobi Meyers
Allen Robinson is headed into his 28-year-old season and could easily demand the deal Keenan Allen received last offseason when he was 28, which paid him an average annual value of $20 million. It's a steep price to pay, but he's one of the best receivers in football who has found himself held back by low-level quarterback situations in Jacksonville and Chicago.
Waddle might end up being a top-10 pick in the draft this spring, but our buddy Albert Breer at MMQB.com suggested last week that the Alabama star could still be available to the Patriots in the middle of the first. That'd be a gift. He has speed for days and would be a tremendous option as the team's "Z" receiver, with Robinson filling the "X" role outside and Meyers playing in the slot.
2) The Bone-in Ribeye: Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, Jakobi Meyers
Would the Bucs let Godwin get away as they head into what could be their last season with Tom Brady? He could be destined for the franchise tag, but if he hits the market, he seems like the type of player the Patriots would love. Versatile. Competitive. Could play any receiver role Belichick asks of him.
Ohio State's Olave is a player who's known more as a route-runner than a true top-notch athlete. It'll be interesting to see how he tests before the draft, though, because he looked explosive in the College Football Playoff semifinal game against Clemson. The Patriots might need to move up into a higher slot in the second round to nab him.
3) The Filet: Corey Davis, TY Hilton, Jakobi Meyers
This is a situation in which you might be able to get a couple of good starting-caliber receivers for the price of one great one. Davis and Hilton might find deals on the open market that pay them about $10 million annually.
Neither may be a true No. 1. But if the Patriots need a couple of pass-catchers who can fit into their top-three next season -- not to mention other spots on the roster in need of help -- spreading the money around a bit might make sense. This plan would also free up one of their first two picks to fill another need.
Appreciate you checking in, Meiko. I think the fullback gig will be Jakob Johnson's to lose next year. He knows the system. He's tough. They like him. Good place to be.
We touched on this a little earlier this week, Charles. He's going to have to get creative, but there are several cost-cutting measures that seem pretty obvious for him to execute right off the bat.
Hey, Heather. He's not exactly a Brady clone, but the later-round quarterback I like the most at this point is Desmond Ridder from Cincinnati. He's a good athlete with good size and a strong arm.
So many of the game's best quarterbacks in today's NFL started out as "raw" prospects with excellent traits. Ridder might not be the most polished passer available, but he has some intriguing physical qualities for the position. I have no idea at this point where he'll end up in the draft. Does someone bite on his potential on Day 2? Does an ugly second half against Georgia in the Peach Bowl drop him to Day 3? We've got time to try to narrow that down.
(Editor's Note: Ridder announced Friday afternoon he's returning to Cincinnati for his senior season and won't enter the NFL Draft.)
Not something I'd be willing to put any amount of money on.
Would people flip if they traded down? I think they might. I'm not sure they should.
Every year, I try to get a sense from personnel people as to how the tiers of the draft are structured. That could mean, for instance, the first round has a clear-cut top 12 and then the next 40 players are all pretty similar in terms of their level of play.
There's still time to get a more crystallized view of this class, but it might be one of those first rounds that has a dozen or so upper-echelon picks. If the Patriots are outside of that range at No. 15, if their favorite quarterbacks are off the board and if they have a handful of receivers, corners, linemen they'd like to draft who will be available later . . . I really could see them trading back. That's what they do. That's one way in which Bill Belichick has tried to build up his team's depth.
The Patriots need to hit with these picks. And, yes, picking early gives them a good chance to hit. But having more darts to launch at the board would help, too.
That's it for this week, friends. Thanks to everyone who chipped in. Enjoy Wild Card Weekend. And whatever you do, don't call it Super Wild Card Weekend.
