The New England Patriots didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their Week 11 win over the New York Jets, and yet oddsmakers still like their chances of playing the Minnesota Vikings tough on Thanksgiving night.
New England's offense struggled mightily versus the Jets. It tallied just 298 total yards, went 4-of-15 on third down and 0-of-2 in the red zone. An 84-yard punt return touchdown by rookie Marcus Jones late in the fourth quarter was the difference in a 10-3 victory at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
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The Patriots will face a much more talented Vikings offense Thursday night, but Minnesota has problems of its own.
First, let's look at the opening betting lines for Patriots-Vikings, via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Vikings -3 (-110), Patriots +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Vikings -155, Patriots +135
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 points (-110), Under -41.5 points (-110)
The Vikings are loaded with high-end talent at the skill positions on offense. Justin Jefferson is arguably the top wide receiver in football, and he ranks fourth in receptions with 72 and second in yards with 1,093, along with four touchdowns. Running back Dalvin Cook and tight end T.J. Hockenson are tough to defend as well.
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So, why are the 8-2 Vikings only 3-point favorites versus a 6-4 Patriots team that is having enormous trouble scoring?
Well, the Vikings just played their worst game of the season, losing 40-3 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has a 10-18 career record in primetime games, including a 3-4 record on Thursday night. The Cowboys sacked Cousins seven times in Week 11, and the Patriots defense likely will see similar success rushing the quarterback. New England ranks No. 2 in sacks with 36, and star edge rusher Matthew Judon -- who leads the league with 13 sacks -- should have plenty of chances to add to that total with Vikings starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw out with an injury.
The Patriots are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five matchups with the Vikings. New England also has a five-game win streak against Minnesota dating back to Nov. 24, 2002.
The Patriots will play many quality opponents over the last seven games, starting with the Vikings on the road on short rest. It's a great test for Bill Belichick's defense and will help us determine whether this unit is as good as the stats suggest.