The Patriots allowed 250 rushing yds in a 22-12 loss to the Dolphins that eliminated New England from the playoffs. Ted Johnson, Matt Cassel, Albert Breer and Phil Perry break down the loss and what’s next for the Pats.
This was a big year for Patriots observers going through other teams' schedules in an effort to learn something about the Pats. I was never into that, as I didn't think the Patriots were finding their way into the playoffs.
Now, though? Hell yeah I'm going through schedules. I want to know where the Pats will be picking in the draft.
Having fallen to 6-8 with a loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots' first-round pick currently sits at No. 15 overall. With two games left to play, they could theoretically finish 6-10. Could that get them into the top 10, where two 6-10 teams selected last year?
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That's where the schedules come in. Here are the current picks starting at No. 4, where the Panthers have two more losses than the Patriots:
| 4. Carolina Panthers | 4-10 | .531 SOS |
| 5. Atlanta Falcons | 4-10 | .536 SOS |
| 6. Houston (to Miami) | 4-10 | .551 SOS |
| 7. Philadelphia Eagles | 4-9-1 | .529 SOS |
| 8. Dallas Cowboys | 5-9 | .475 SOS |
| 9. L.A. Chargers | 5-9 | .484 SOS |
| 10. New York Giants | 5-9 | .502 SOS |
| 11. Detroit Lions | 5-9 | .509 SOS |
| 12. San Francisco 49ers | 5-9 | .547 SOS |
| 13. Denver Broncos | 5-9 | .558 SOS |
| 14. Minnesota Vikings | 6-8 | .504 SOS |
| 15. New England Patriots | 6-8 | .522 SOS |
| 16. Chicago Bears | 7-7 | .491 SOS |
| 17. Las Vegas Raiders | 7-7 | .536 SOS |
Strength of schedule (courtesy of tankathon.com) factors in because if there are two teams with the same record, the team with the worse strength of schedule gets the higher pick. For this exercise, we'll use current strength of schedule as the tiebreaker.
Now here's my extremely unscientific projection of how the teams picking near the Pats will fare the rest of the way.
New England Patriots
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| Week 16 | Week 17 | Rec. | |
| 4. Carolina Panthers | at WFT (L) | vs. NO (L) | 0-2 |
| 5. Atlanta Falcons | at KC (L) | at TB (L) | 0-2 |
| 6. Houston (to Miami) | vs. CIN (W) | vs. TEN (L) | 1-1 |
| 7. Philadelphia Eagles | at DAL (W) | vs. WFT (W) | 2-0 |
| 8. Dallas Cowboys | vs. PHI (L) | at NYG (L) | 0-2 |
| 9. L.A. Chargers | vs. DEN (W) | at KC (L) | 0-2 |
| 10. New York Giants | at BAL (L) | vs. DAL (W) | 1-1 |
| 11. Detroit Lions | vs. TB (L) | vs. MIN (L) | 0-2 |
| 12. San Francisco 49ers | at AZ (L) | vs. SEA (L) | 0-2 |
| 13. Denver Broncos | at LAC (L) | vs. LV (L) | 0-2 |
| 14. Minnesota Vikings | at NO (L) | at DET (W) | 1-1 |
| 15. New England Patriots | |||
| 16. Chicago Bears | at JAX (W) | vs. GB (W!) | 2-0 |
| 17. Las Vegas Raiders | vs. MIA (L) | at DEN (W) | 1-1 |
[Obviously, these are guesses and playoff seedings could change this, though I don't think they will: I have Washington beating the Panthers and getting to seven wins, which would keep them ahead of the Eagles if Philly were to win out.]
So here's how the order would look in such a projection if the Patriots were to go 2-0 with wins over Buffalo and the Jets in the final two weeks:
| 4. Carolina Panthers | 4-12 | .531 SOS |
| 5. Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | .536 SOS |
| 6. Dallas Cowboys | 5-11 | .475 SOS |
| 7. Detroit Lions | 5-11 | .509 SOS |
| 8. San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | .547 SOS |
| 9. Houston (to Miami) | 5-11 | .551 SOS |
| 10. Denver Broncos | 5-11 | .558 SOS |
| 11. Los Angeles Chargers | 6-10 | .484 SOS |
| 12. New York Giants | 6-10 | .502 SOS |
| 13. Philadelphia Eagles | 6-9-1 | .529 SOS |
| 14. Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | .504 SOS |
| 15. New England Patriots | 8-8 | .522 SOS |
| 16. Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | .536 SOS |
| 17. Chicago Bears | 9-7 | .491 SOS |
Here's the hypothetical order with the Pats splitting the last two weeks:
| 4. Carolina Panthers | 4-12 | .531 SOS |
| 5. Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | .536 SOS |
| 6. Dallas Cowboys | 5-11 | .475 SOS |
| 7. Detroit Lions | 5-11 | .509 SOS |
| 8. San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | .547 SOS |
| 9. Houston (to Miami) | 5-11 | .551 SOS |
| 10. Denver Broncos | 5-11 | .558 SOS |
| 11. L.A. Chargers | 6-10 | .484 SOS |
| 12. New York Giants | 6-10 | .502 SOS |
| 13. Philadelphia Eagles | 6-9-1 | .529 SOS |
| 14. Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | .504 SOS |
| 15. New England Patriots | 7-9 | .522 SOS |
| 16. Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | .536 SOS |
| 17. Chicago Bears | 9-7 | .491 SOS |
And finally, the potential order if the Pats lose out:
| 4. Carolina Panthers | 4-12 | .531 SOS |
| 5. Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | .536 SOS |
| 6. Dallas Cowboys | 5-11 | .475 SOS |
| 7. Detroit Lions | 5-11 | .509 SOS |
| 8. San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | .547 SOS |
| 9. Houston (to Miami) | 5-11 | .551 SOS |
| 10. Denver Broncos | 5-11 | .558 SOS |
| 11. L.A. Chargers | 6-10 | .484 SOS |
| 12. New York Giants | 6-10 | .502 SOS |
| 13. New England Patriots | 6-10 | .522 SOS |
| 14. Philadelphia Eagles | 6-9-1 | .529 SOS |
| 15. Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | .504 SOS |
| 16. Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | .536 SOS |
| 17. Chicago Bears | 9-7 | .491 SOS |
So, to summarize, here's where this unscientific projection has the Pats picking depending on how they finish:
- 6-10: 13th
- 7-9: 15th
- 8-8: 15th
Disappointed? Yeah, same, but what else is new this season? If the teams below the Patriots in the standings kick ass the rest of the way, sure, they can move way up, but when you go through their schedules, it's hard to see it happening.
That said, No. 13 isn't terrible. We'll see if they even get that though, as the Jets winning de-incentivizes Bill Belichick to throw the Week 17 meeting.
Unless the Patriots either get really lucky or really unlucky, expect them to pick somewhere in the 13-15 range in 2021.