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2021 Patriots mock draft: Does the spending spree impact Belichick's approach?

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When the Patriots assess prospects in the NFL Draft, it's not an exercise performed in a vacuum.They look at their current roster, they evaluate potential newcomers against those already in the fold. Can a rookie inside linebacker supplant a veteran? If not in Year 1, then what about in Year 2 or 3? They take the short-term and long-term into account. There have been years when the team has felt confident in its roster as constructed headed into the draft, and in those years there may not be much room for rookies.That brings us to this year's tampering period. Have the Patriots loaded up in such a way that every one of their myriad roster holes is filled with veterans? No. But many of their signings beyond the high-end payments to tight end Jonnu Smith and outside linebacker Matthew Judon have been to fill out their depth -- spots that in other locales might be filled by players on cheaper rookie contracts.Making as many acquisitions as they've made -- and there are more coming -- may mean it's less likely the Patriots spend all their draft capital in a month and a half. They have nine picks. They could end up with more if they end up trading Stephon Gilmore or if JC Jackson is signed to a lucrative restricted free-agent deal.Maneuverability. They have it. And they could use it, potentially, to get as aggressive as they've been in this free-agent period to find their next face of the franchise. That's exactly what we have them doing in our latest mock draft: trading a future pick that could easily be replaced by a 2021 pick (or picks) depending on how much capital they have to play with on draft night.Quarterback is the one spot they can't adequately address in free agency given the options. But if they bring their improve-at-all-costs approach from March to the end of April, they could make the splashiest move of all: one that gives them long-term hope at the game's most important position.

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1/9
<p><strong>Patriots trade No. 15 and their 2022 first-rounder, Lions trade No. 7</strong></p>

<p>Bill Belichick has now been in this position twice, with no starting-quarterback-level investment at the game's most important position. Didn't go all that well last year. This year, he makes his move knowing that 94 percent of playoff teams over the last five years have either had a first-round pick or a well-paid veteran behind center. </p>

<p>1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson</p>

<p>2. Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU</p>

<p>3. Dolphins: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon</p>

<p>4. Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida</p>

<p>5. Bengals: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern</p>

<p>6. Eagles: J'Marr Chase, WR, LSU</p>

<p>7. Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State</p>

<p>With Fields the Patriots could operate the same kind of offense they ran last season, with plays designed to use the quarterback in the running game -- Fields is smaller than Cam Newton but faster and plenty physical at 225 pounds -- only they'd have a trigger man who can throw the football deep and with plenty of velocity <a href="https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1345361820828262403">with ease</a>.</p>

<p>Fields also would provide the Patriots an accurate passer who does well to avoid turnovers, which Belichick would appreciate. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the most accurate quarterback in the country on passes thrown 10 yards or more down the field, and he had just 18 turnover-worthy plays in his career. He also played through injury late last year, and performed well with the country watching in the College Football Playoff.</p>

<p>Fields <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1371487980951646215">might not be the quickest decision-maker in the class</a>, but that can be improved. He's the type of quarterback who wouldn't be available at No. 7 most years so for the Patriots to give up a future first to get their next face of the franchise is a steep-but-reasonable price to pay.</p>

Patriots trade No. 15 and their 2022 first-rounder, Lions trade No. 7

Bill Belichick has now been in this position twice, with no starting-quarterback-level investment at the game's most important position. Didn't go all that well last year. This year, he makes his move knowing that 94 percent of playoff teams over the last five years have either had a first-round pick or a well-paid veteran behind center. 

1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2. Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

3. Dolphins: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

4. Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5. Bengals: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

6. Eagles: J'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

7. Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

With Fields the Patriots could operate the same kind of offense they ran last season, with plays designed to use the quarterback in the running game -- Fields is smaller than Cam Newton but faster and plenty physical at 225 pounds -- only they'd have a trigger man who can throw the football deep and with plenty of velocity with ease.

Fields also would provide the Patriots an accurate passer who does well to avoid turnovers, which Belichick would appreciate. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the most accurate quarterback in the country on passes thrown 10 yards or more down the field, and he had just 18 turnover-worthy plays in his career. He also played through injury late last year, and performed well with the country watching in the College Football Playoff.

Fields might not be the quickest decision-maker in the class, but that can be improved. He's the type of quarterback who wouldn't be available at No. 7 most years so for the Patriots to give up a future first to get their next face of the franchise is a steep-but-reasonable price to pay.

2/9
<p>This is the kind of player we're accustomed to the Patriots taking in the first round over the years. McNeill might not be Richard Seymour, Ty Warren or Vince Wilfork, but he has the physical skill set to be more impactful than, say, Malcom Brown. McNeill played at 6-foot-2 and close to 340 pounds last year for the Wolfpack, and yet still was athletic enough to be an impactful piece to their pass-rush. Players that large with that much athleticism don't grow on trees. He'll eat up double teams, push the pocket on early downs and be totally accustomed to the anchor-in-place style the Patriots appreciate.</p>

<p>The Patriots have loaded up on free-agent defensive pieces up front -- Henry Anderson and Davon Godchaux were among their first acquisitions of the week -- but they are still lacking a true nose tackle (the 330-pound range for them) unless they think Beau Allen can bounce back after missing all of 2020. McNeill is a perfect fit for a team that wants to be big, strong and tough against the run up front.</p>

<p><em><strong>Editor's Note:</strong> Perry initially had the Patriots taking Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth with this pick, but updated his selection after New England <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/nfl-rumors-patriots-sign-top-free-agent-tight-end-hunter-henry-3-year-deal?b">reportedly landed Hunter Henry</a> in free agency.</em></p>

This is the kind of player we're accustomed to the Patriots taking in the first round over the years. McNeill might not be Richard Seymour, Ty Warren or Vince Wilfork, but he has the physical skill set to be more impactful than, say, Malcom Brown. McNeill played at 6-foot-2 and close to 340 pounds last year for the Wolfpack, and yet still was athletic enough to be an impactful piece to their pass-rush. Players that large with that much athleticism don't grow on trees. He'll eat up double teams, push the pocket on early downs and be totally accustomed to the anchor-in-place style the Patriots appreciate.

The Patriots have loaded up on free-agent defensive pieces up front -- Henry Anderson and Davon Godchaux were among their first acquisitions of the week -- but they are still lacking a true nose tackle (the 330-pound range for them) unless they think Beau Allen can bounce back after missing all of 2020. McNeill is a perfect fit for a team that wants to be big, strong and tough against the run up front.

Editor's Note: Perry initially had the Patriots taking Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth with this pick, but updated his selection after New England reportedly landed Hunter Henry in free agency.

3/9
<p>This is the kind of selection we've seen the Patriots make in the second round in recent seasons. <a href="https://twitter.com/BenFennell_NFL/status/1367880492113145868">Brown was a Senior Bowl standout</a> -- UCLA's Demetric Felton told The Next Pats Podcast that he was<a href="https://t.co/y7SXlnyZEs?amp=1"> the toughest corner in Mobile</a> -- and he played over 700 special-teams snaps for the Sooners, according to Ben Fennell. That's a whopping number.</p>

<p>Brown is just 5-foot-9, 188 pounds so he's not going to be Stephon Gilmore's successor as a full-time, outside-the-numbers presence. But he could play in the slot. He's tough enough to play some safety. He's athletic enough to handle himself on the outside in the right matchups.</p>

<p>It looks like, especially with the signing of do-it-all defensive back Jalen Mills, the Patriots want to play positionless football in the secondary to a certain extent. Brown fits that mold.</p>

This is the kind of selection we've seen the Patriots make in the second round in recent seasons. Brown was a Senior Bowl standout -- UCLA's Demetric Felton told The Next Pats Podcast that he was the toughest corner in Mobile -- and he played over 700 special-teams snaps for the Sooners, according to Ben Fennell. That's a whopping number.

Brown is just 5-foot-9, 188 pounds so he's not going to be Stephon Gilmore's successor as a full-time, outside-the-numbers presence. But he could play in the slot. He's tough enough to play some safety. He's athletic enough to handle himself on the outside in the right matchups.

It looks like, especially with the signing of do-it-all defensive back Jalen Mills, the Patriots want to play positionless football in the secondary to a certain extent. Brown fits that mold.

4/9
<p>It's not often you find a tackle with Smith's physical skill set in the middle rounds. But in a deep tackle class and weighing in under 300 pounds at the Senior Bowl (6-foot-5, 294), <a href="https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1365309339431563267">Smith's massive 85-inch wingspan</a> could potentially be had at this point on draft weekend. He'll need a year of seasoning to gain some weight and add some strength, but the Patriots can give him time as both Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown will be around prior to hitting free agency next offseason.</p>

<p>This pick may give folks flashbacks to 2017 when the Patriots took a thin, athletic tackle from the Senior Bowl on Day 2. Antonio Garcia didn't work out here, but that doesn't mean Smith can't. </p>

<p>Barring any tackle additions in free-agency, tackle still looks like a long-term need for the Patriots. Michael Onwenu, last year's rookie standout at tackle and guard, looks like the top candidate to kick inside and replace <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/nfl-rumors-joe-thuney-leaves-patriots-sign-huge-free-agent-contract-chiefs?b">new Kansas City Chiefs signing</a> Joe Thuney at left guard.</p>

It's not often you find a tackle with Smith's physical skill set in the middle rounds. But in a deep tackle class and weighing in under 300 pounds at the Senior Bowl (6-foot-5, 294), Smith's massive 85-inch wingspan could potentially be had at this point on draft weekend. He'll need a year of seasoning to gain some weight and add some strength, but the Patriots can give him time as both Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown will be around prior to hitting free agency next offseason.

This pick may give folks flashbacks to 2017 when the Patriots took a thin, athletic tackle from the Senior Bowl on Day 2. Antonio Garcia didn't work out here, but that doesn't mean Smith can't. 

Barring any tackle additions in free-agency, tackle still looks like a long-term need for the Patriots. Michael Onwenu, last year's rookie standout at tackle and guard, looks like the top candidate to kick inside and replace new Kansas City Chiefs signing Joe Thuney at left guard.

5/9
<p>The Patriots have pieces to play with at the wide receiver spot, but neither Nelson Agholor nor Kendrick Bourne will prevent them from making a Day 2 investment at the position. Plus, Johnson is built differently than those new additions and could easily plan alongside them. Agholor, Bourne and Jakobi Meyers look like versatile options who could play both inside and out.</p>

<p>Johnson would be more of a traditional slot receiver -- with some juice. No Senior Bowl receiver caught more passes in the one-on-one periods than Johnson, <a href="https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1360001332149633035">including this one-handed beauty</a>. At 5-foot-10, 186 pounds, he's a slot with the ability to get vertical. They could still use some speed beyond what they have in Agholor. That's not Meyers' or Bourne's game.</p>

<p>Johnson -- maybe next in line as the smaller-program Senior Bowl star the Patriots fall for -- could be the quick, tough, between-the-hashes target-machine that Josh McDaniels loves.</p>

The Patriots have pieces to play with at the wide receiver spot, but neither Nelson Agholor nor Kendrick Bourne will prevent them from making a Day 2 investment at the position. Plus, Johnson is built differently than those new additions and could easily plan alongside them. Agholor, Bourne and Jakobi Meyers look like versatile options who could play both inside and out.

Johnson would be more of a traditional slot receiver -- with some juice. No Senior Bowl receiver caught more passes in the one-on-one periods than Johnson, including this one-handed beauty. At 5-foot-10, 186 pounds, he's a slot with the ability to get vertical. They could still use some speed beyond what they have in Agholor. That's not Meyers' or Bourne's game.

Johnson -- maybe next in line as the smaller-program Senior Bowl star the Patriots fall for -- could be the quick, tough, between-the-hashes target-machine that Josh McDaniels loves.

6/9
<p>Matthew Judon <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/nfl-rumors-matthew-judon-patriots-agree-four-year-56m-contract?b">is being paid like a star</a> at a position that the Patriots desperately needed to fill. They needed his size and pop off the edge -- particularly on early downs. But in this mock, they don't stop there. Injuries happen. They still want big, athletic players on the outside who can handle a variety of roles.</p>

<p>Sample looks like that type of guy at 6-foot-2, 270 pounds. He's built as more of a 4-3 end, but he appears to have <a href="https://twitter.com/EaglesXOs/status/1351274295905972230">the movement skills to be able to stand up</a> and play as an outside linebacker in the Patriots' scheme. Sample did a little bit of everything at Tulane, and if he hailed from a Power Five conference we may be talking about him as a player going off the board in the first three rounds.</p>

Matthew Judon is being paid like a star at a position that the Patriots desperately needed to fill. They needed his size and pop off the edge -- particularly on early downs. But in this mock, they don't stop there. Injuries happen. They still want big, athletic players on the outside who can handle a variety of roles.

Sample looks like that type of guy at 6-foot-2, 270 pounds. He's built as more of a 4-3 end, but he appears to have the movement skills to be able to stand up and play as an outside linebacker in the Patriots' scheme. Sample did a little bit of everything at Tulane, and if he hailed from a Power Five conference we may be talking about him as a player going off the board in the first three rounds.

7/9
<p>More receiver help? Yup. More receiver help. This is a dart throw. Every pick is, of course, but this one has the potential to land the Patriots a true No. 1 receiver if everything breaks the right way for Bill Belichick. There may be no more intriguing height-weight-speed combination in a late-round receiver in this class.  </p>

<p>At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Terry <a href="https://twitter.com/BrettKollmann/status/1365716771529887750">reportedly hit 23.4 miles per hour </a>with the Seminoles in 2019. That's a mind-blowing figure if legitimate. His production fell off in a big way last season (60 catches for 1,187 yards in 2019, 23 catches for 289 yards in 2020), which would explain his fall in the draft. But if the Patriots chalk up his recent struggles to the strangeness of a COVID-impacted season and poor quarterback play, <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1261325970457288705">he's more than worth the risk on Day 3</a>.</p>

More receiver help? Yup. More receiver help. This is a dart throw. Every pick is, of course, but this one has the potential to land the Patriots a true No. 1 receiver if everything breaks the right way for Bill Belichick. There may be no more intriguing height-weight-speed combination in a late-round receiver in this class.  

At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Terry reportedly hit 23.4 miles per hour with the Seminoles in 2019. That's a mind-blowing figure if legitimate. His production fell off in a big way last season (60 catches for 1,187 yards in 2019, 23 catches for 289 yards in 2020), which would explain his fall in the draft. But if the Patriots chalk up his recent struggles to the strangeness of a COVID-impacted season and poor quarterback play, he's more than worth the risk on Day 3.

8/9
<p>An old-school, off-the-ball linebacker who makes defending the run a priority? At 6 feet and over 240 pounds? With a track record of good production in the SEC? And a captain at a program the Patriots respect? Sounds like a late-round fit for the folks at One Patriot Place.</p>

An old-school, off-the-ball linebacker who makes defending the run a priority? At 6 feet and over 240 pounds? With a track record of good production in the SEC? And a captain at a program the Patriots respect? Sounds like a late-round fit for the folks at One Patriot Place.

9/9
<p>Williams has the kind of resume that will have special teams coaches pounding on the table for his selection late on draft weekend. A preferred walk-on, he became a four-year starter at Boise State and was named a 2020 All-American as a special-teamer. </p>

<p><a href="https://twitter.com/boise_edits/status/1340452845833781248">The return-man had nine career touchdowns</a>, but he's blocked a field goal, an extra point and multiple punts and has forced a fumble while covering a kick. He has over 600 career special teams snaps to his name, according to NFL Media's Ben Fennell. The Patriots just watched Gunner Olszewski come through with a very good season, but they're always on the lookout for kicking-game help.</p>

Williams has the kind of resume that will have special teams coaches pounding on the table for his selection late on draft weekend. A preferred walk-on, he became a four-year starter at Boise State and was named a 2020 All-American as a special-teamer. 

The return-man had nine career touchdowns, but he's blocked a field goal, an extra point and multiple punts and has forced a fumble while covering a kick. He has over 600 career special teams snaps to his name, according to NFL Media's Ben Fennell. The Patriots just watched Gunner Olszewski come through with a very good season, but they're always on the lookout for kicking-game help.

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