Forsberg: Ranking the most important players on full-strength C's
The next time the Boston Celtics step on the court, they should have all of their top players together for the first time this season (well, not including rookie sensation Payton Pritchard, who is sidelined with a knee sprain).It will be our first glimpse at the star trio of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker together since the NBA bubble, and even then, Walker wasn’t quite at full strength due to knee woes.So which players are most important to the team’s success moving forward? Here’s one attempt at power ranking the full-strength Celtics based on what we’ve seen and what lies ahead.
Jaylen Brown has been Boston’s best player through the first 16 games of the 2020-21 season. Jayson Tatum, as his 17-day COVID absence highlighted, is the most important.
Boston’s on/off splits have screamed how vital Tatum is to Boston’s success in recent seasons. The Celtics are outscoring opponents by a robust 7.5 points per 100 possessions in his 378 minutes on the court this season, and have a net rating of minus-0.3 in his 390 minutes off the floor.
His shot-making takes so much stress off the offense and creates space for others to operate. Boston’s offensive rating is 113.1 with Tatum on the court and dips to a team-worst 109.4 without him. His length is also vital on the defensive end and the Celtics' defense is 4.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
Steamrolling toward not only his first All-Star appearance but All-NBA consideration, Brown is quietly making the sort of star turn that Tatum displayed at the start of the 2020 calendar year.
Brown’s leap really started in the bubble but it’s simply in the spotlight more early in the 2020-21 campaign with the 24-year-old becoming even more of an offensive focal point as the Celtics navigated without rehabbing Walker and departed Gordon Hayward.
The only statistical oddity: The Celtics have a better net rating with Brown off the court (plus-3.4) than on (plus-2.5). But his relentless development has only further opened Boston’s championship window.
Are Tatum and Brown both top-10 NBA players?
The early returns from Walker have been encouraging. His 3-point shot has been hot and cold but his ability to make familiar moves — and do so as he marvels about being able to make them pain free again — is the best news of all for the Celtics.
With Boston putting the ball in Brown’s hands more often, the Brown-Tatum-Walker trio naturally will have to figure out how to best share shots, but that likely won't be as much of an issue as it is for, say, the Harden-Durant-Irving trio in Brooklyn.
Walker and the Jays are going to force defenses to pick their poison and Boston’s starting unit should see their offensive production spike with a healthy troika.
Smart’s playmaking skills have steadily improved throughout his career but he really had a chance to showcase them in Walker’s absence. Smart boasts a career-best 25.9 percent assist percentage to date, and his 40 assists to Brown are the most among any assist combo in the NBA this season.
It feels like at least once per game now Smart throws an absurd behind-the-back pass that gets Daniel Theis an easy jumper. His assists are creating 14.5 points per game — best on the team by nearly 4 points per game — which ranks him 34th overall in the NBA.
Even with Walker back, Smart is vital to creating good shots for Boston’s stars. And, it goes without saying, Smart has to set the defensive intensity for a team that hasn’t been good enough on that end this season.
Forsberg: Jaylen's emergence coinciding with Smart's playmaking
Here are Theis’ numbers in the last 10 games: 12.1 points on 72.1 percent shooting (including 50 percent beyond the arc) over 24 minutes per night. Boston’s net rating is plus-9.2 with Theis on the court in that span, most notably with their offensive rating spiking to 117.9.
As Tristan Thompson struggles to acclimatize with his new team, Theis is showing the value of chemistry and continuity. From almost the moment Walker returned, Theis has been getting easy buckets near the rim. A driving Kemba fed Theis for a crunch-time alley-oop in Philadelphia and it was a reminder of how good Theis was with that core inside the bubble.
Thompson is going to get every chance to develop chemistry and emerge as Boston’s primary big. But even with uncertainly about Theis’ future after this season, the Celtics might need to embrace how much better he makes the core.
The ace up Danny Ainge’s sleeve. The Celtics have the ability to take on as much as $28.5 million in salary without necessarily having to send out matching salary. (A desire to stay out of the luxury tax adds a wrinkle to total salary absorption, however.)
Boston’s needs remain exactly what we expected entering the season and after the departure of Gordon Hayward: wing depth and shooting, though Ainge also will put a premium on defensive versatility, especially if it’s someone that can play the 4/5 role.
But the bottom line is that Tatum and Brown’s development has increased the Celtics' chances of truly competing for a title, which means Ainge shouldn’t hesitate to splurge on an impact talent — especially one that can be part of this core beyond this season — with the ultimate goal of maximizing the Jays’ window.
Seven players the Celtics could target with traded player exception
It’s a bit jarring how much Thompson has struggled early in the 2020-21 season. Some of that isn’t totally unexpected while adjusting to a new system and new teammates. A sometimes-clunky two-big lineup probably hasn’t helped, either. But opposing bigs are scoring at an alarming rate against him. The NBA’s tracking data suggest opponents are shooting 58.6 percent against Thompson, or 11.5 percent above their expected field goal percentage.
Celtics coach Brad Stevens has said he needs to find ways to better accentuate Thompson’s talents. We’re eager to see how he pairs as the lone big with the core four (Smart, Brown, Tatum, Walker) and if he can get to a level where he creeps back into the top five on this list. His championship experience could be crucial for this young team.
We’re making the final spots combos because, barring a roster thinning in any move with the traded player exception, it feels like the players deployed in these spots could hinge on hot hands and matchups.
Teague has had some unsightly stretches but the Celtics’ numbers are still quite glossy when he’s on the court (plus-8.7 net rating). Pritchard offers a bit more consistency on the defensive end and we’ll see if his current absence saps any of his initial momentum.
It’s too early to know who emerges in that Brad Wanamaker-like role as the third point guard on the postseason roster but the Celtics certainly will need another guard in 10- to 14-minute bursts who limits mistakes and competes defensively.
Nearing the quarter mark of the season, we didn’t expect Ojeleye to have more floor time than Williams but it speaks to the steadiness that Ojeleye has displayed. Williams might just be in a bit of a sophomore slump but Boston’s offense has really fallen off a cliff when he’s on the floor (a 105.3 offensive rating, 7.3 points less than the team’s season average).
If either player is able to grasp those minutes as backup 4, it might allow the Celtics to really hone their TPE targets on a shooting wing. Ojeleye wasn’t able to maintain his success into the playoffs last year while Williams played inspired ball inside the bubble but hasn’t quite been able to carry it over into the new season. The competition for time should push both of them.
With depth likely to be important in the second half of the season when the NBA might be scrambling to make up lost games, this trio could be important to getting Boston to the finish line. Playoff roles for this group are a bit murkier, however, and might hinge on the performance of players currently ahead of them on the depth chart.
If Theis and Thompson gobble up the majority of available big-man minutes and Stevens strays from the two-big lineup, it’s going to limit the amount of minutes available for Robert Williams. That’s unfortunate because Williams has been excellent in small doses and his energy can change games. We’re eager to see him in larger doses, particularly as he gets back to full strength after his COVID-19 battle.
Langford could provide some of the wing depth that the team lacks but Stevens suggested he’s still a ways from returning from offseason wrist surgery. The Celtics remain bullish on Langford’s potential but he’s been snake-bitten by injuries throughout his brief time as a pro. He carved out a role last season because of his defense but it’s his offensive potential that made him a lottery pick.
Nesmith put together consecutive encouraging outings against Cleveland and Chicago. He’s still a work in progress on the defensive end but he does play with energy and clearly is eager to improve. The shot was never a worry for Boston brass; all rookies are streaky. But Nesmith needs to worry about being in the right spots more often as that’s far more important than getting those 3s to fall.
