This insane stat shows how improbable Heat’s 2-1 lead over Celtics really is

The Miami Heat have a 2-1 series lead over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals entering Monday night's pivotal Game 4 at TD Garden.

The Heat easily could be trailing the series 0-3.

Miami was outplayed in Game 1 except for the third quarter, when it outscored Boston 39-14 en route to a series opening victory. The Celtics bounced back with a 25-point victory in Game 2. They outplayed the Heat for most of Game 3, too, but put themselves in an early 21-point hole at the end of the first quarter.

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The Heat have won just two of the first 12 quarters of the series. They are the only team in NBA playoff history to do that and have a 2-1 series advantage.

Per @EliasSports, the Heat have won just 2 quarters this series (3rd of Game 1 and 1st of Game 3), winning those quarters by a combined 46 points.

Miami is the 1st team in NBA postseason history to win just 2 quarters in the first 3 games and have a series lead. pic.twitter.com/4UqLruomgq
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 22, 2022

Here's a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the series.

Game 1 (119-107 MIA)
1st: 28-25
2nd: 34-29
3rd: 39-14 (Heat)
4th: 31-25

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Game 2 (127-102 BOS)
1st: 35-24
2nd: 35-21
3rd: 26-26
4th: 31-31

Game 3 (109-103 MIA)
1st: 39-18 (Heat)
2nd: 29-23
3rd: 25-25
4th: 31-22

The Celtics will win this series if they take care of the basketball. They committed 23 turnovers in Game 3 and the Heat scored 33 points off of them. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 40 points but tallied seven turnovers. Jayson Tatum scored just 10 points and committed six turnovers.

Boston is a more talented and deeper team than Miami, but those things don't matter if you give a quality opponent too many extra opportunities to score. This series has been a physical one and the referees, at least for the most part, are letting a lot of stuff go. If that trend continues, the Celtics will have to show a lot more concentration and discipline with their passing and not let the Heat rack up 19 steals like they did in Game 3.