Forsberg: Five bold predictions for the 2020-21 Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics tip off their 2020-21 season on Wednesday night and, based on preseason returns, it might be a bold declaration to simply suggest this team will make the playoffs.And while a brief two-game exhibition slate put a floodlight on some of Boston’s concerns, especially with early health woes, we suspect the outlook will get a bit rosier as the Celtics lean heavier on their core in the regular season.But there are most definitely going to be some bumps in the road early on. That’s not a very spicy prediction. But here’s five forecasts that are a bit more audacious:
With Kemba Walker sidelined to start the year, Jayson Tatum is the obvious focal point of the Celtics’ offense and he’s going to have to put a heftier load on those bulked-up shoulders.
Consider this: While Walker was sidelined early in calendar year 2020 and Tatum made his leap, Tatum averaged 32.9 points per 40 minutes for the month of February. He might have to do the same to start the 2020-21 season just to keep Boston afloat.
The Celtics ranked dead last in the league in offensive rating at an impossibly anemic 90.4 during their two preseason games. Tatum is going to be on the court for big minutes and will put up loud numbers which nudges him into the MVP conversation.
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We’re not feeling particularly confident about this declaration based on the preseason and there’s a strong chance that Theis is so vital to the big man position that the Celtics' hands are tied until the offseason.
However, if Tristan Thompson pairs well with Boston’s core and emerges as the first-unit big man, and Timelord shows enough for coach Brad Stevens to lean on him for 15-20 minutes per night, then the Celtics have to ponder moving Theis if only because of his impending free-agent status and their own need for draft assets. Theis is earning $5 million in the final year of his current deal and the Celtics are going to be hard-pressed to offer even a modest bump in salary given their cap constraints. The Celtics could wait until the summer and try to move him via sign-and-trade and still recoup a draft asset but Boston has to at least consider moving him early in order to ensure maximum return.
The opposite end of this bold prediction spectrum: Theis maintains his grasp on the starting role and it’s Williams that is traded as a key piece in any deal involving the Gordon Hayward trade exception.
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Stevens talks all the time about trying to find players who can accentuate the talents of Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics desperately need shooting in order to loosen things up for the Jays and Nesmith might be the team’s best hope to keep defenses honest.
We acknowledge that rookies have to earn their stripes and Nesmith’s defense has to improve if Stevens is going to fully trust him in an elevated role. But shooting is vital -- or even just the threat of shooting -- and Nesmith getting time alongside the Jays feels important. He doesn’t have to shoot like Duncan Robinson; he just has to scare teams enough to stay home on him.
Nesmith shuffles back to a reserve role before the second half as the Celtics use the Hayward TPE to add someone like Aaron Gordon or Harrison Barnes to their starting group before the March 25 trade deadline.
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Maybe this is just wishful thinking given the state of our pandemic world right now but let’s cross our fingers and hope that vaccine distribution helps fans get back inside TD Garden by June. The Celtics, after surging their way to a fourth-place finish in the East after a painfully slow start, draw the top-seeded Bucks in the East semifinals and ride the boost from a rollicking Garden to get back in the conference finals.
What happens there? Well, that’s enough bold proclamations for one entry (and Celtics fans better hope the Nets don’t look nearly as good as they did during that preseason visit, or otherwise combust along the way).
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Thin on desirable young talent, the Celtics are going to have to overwhelm potential trade partners with draft assets. But with their championship window open now given the leaps of Tatum and Brown, Ainge should be more willing to mortgage future first-rounders in order to fill in the gaps around the core.
Given that the Carsen Edwardses and Semi Ojeleyes of the world are unlikely to entice teams to give up prime talent, Boston is just going to have to swallow hard and move future first-rounders in order to facilitate deals. Otherwise, the team has to get really creative in restocking its now-barren trove of picks.
