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BOSTON — On the eve of launching into an Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics first-year coach Joe Mazzulla said Tuesday that Robert Williams III will remain in a starting role.
Mazzulla’s bold decision to reinsert Williams III with the core group energized the Celtics as the team rallied to win Games 6 and 7 of a semifinal series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Still, given Miami’s lack of size, it was fair to wonder if the Celtics might be tempted to go back to Derrick White to add more shooting to the floor.
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Is sticking with Williams III the right decision? The team’s play with that group on the court over the past two games certainly falls into the category of, “If it ain't broke then don’t try to fix it.”
While it’s still a tiny sample size, Boston’s double-big lineup is producing numbers this postseason on par with the team’s dominant second-half run from last season. The group struggled in a measly 81 regular-season minutes together this year, which likely encouraged Mazzulla to stick with White in a starting role even as Williams III got healthier, but Boston’s postseason play has alleviated any concerns that this group couldn’t tap into what made it so good a year ago.
Just look at the numbers:
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In 32 minutes together in Games 6 and 7 of the Sixers series, Boston’s double-big lineup had a +29.8 net rating, which included a stingy defensive rating of 92.1. Boston dominated the glass during those minutes, took care of the basketball, and scored with ease despite putting a non-shooter on the floor.
But will that group be able to maintain that production against a Heat team that prefers to keep Bam Adebayo near the basket? The double-big grouping played only three games together versus Miami last postseason and posted a minus-15.3 net rating in a 29-minute sample. That included a meager 100 offensive rating.
Alas, it’s hard to parse much from last year’s series data. Of the 48 5-man units the Celtics utilized, only two played more than 18 minutes together. Boston’s most common grouping saw Grant Williams with the core four with that 5-man unit posting a +1.2 net rating over 51 minutes. (After leaning on a 7-man rotation at the end of the Philadelphia series, we could see Mazzulla being tempted to utilize Grant or Sam Hauser this round).
The core 4 with White played only 18 minutes in two appearances during last year’s series with the Heat, and had a minus-25 net rating which included a 94.4 offensive rating.
Ultimately, if the double-big lineup can consistently generate offense the way it did against Philadelphia, there is no reason it can’t thrive against the Heat. Having Williams III in free safety mode has allowed each of Boston’s other defenders to play a little more aggressively. He’s quite the safety net when Jimmy Butler is attacking the basket.
The Heat’s biggest concern should be scoring against Boston, regardless of which personnel is on the floor.
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After posting a blistering offensive rating of 119 in Round 1 of the playoffs against the top-seeded Bucks, which included shooting a staggering 45 percent on 34.2 3-point attempts per game, the Heat came back to Earth in Round 2. Against the Knicks, Miami posted a 112.6 offensive rating and shot 30.6 percent beyond the 3-point arc on 38.2 attempts per game. The Knicks couldn’t punish them while bricking their own way through the series.
Boston has the personnel to consistently put stress on Miami’s defense. And adding Malcolm Brogdon for both his 3-point shooting and ball-handling should give Boston a boost from last year’s matchup.
Remember, too, the Celtics can start games big and have plenty of ability to mix and match personnel to better fit their desired method of attacking Miami. By sending out the double big at the jump, Boston is essentially challenging Miami to force changes.
Let the chess match begin.
"I think, even if we do dictate how the game goes, we have to be ready to adjust,” said Mazzulla. "Both teams have the ability to play different ways. Play big, play small. And so, because of that, we just have to be open-minded to where the game is and how we can have the best impact on it.”
One more note: The Celtics have the best halfcourt offense in the playoffs, averaging 6.3 points per 100 possessions more than the sixth-ranked Heat, per Cleaning the Glass data. Boston has to value the basketball — something it didn’t consistently a year ago — and force the Heat to produce enough, offensively, against a set defense to make this a series.
But by declaring an intention to stay big, the Celtics are effectively suggesting that they are going to ride their primary grouping until the Heat force them to ponder other options.