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The North American hardcourt swing continues this week in Cincinnati, where we’re on to our second Masters 1000 in as many weeks. This tournament will offer a bundle of prize money and ranking points, and will also serve as the primary warmup for the U.S. Open in two weeks. With plenty of fun sure to ensue, let’s make some picks.
Frances Tiafoe (+105) vs. Diego Schwartzman (-125)
It’s around this time every year that we begin to see some of the best tennis Diego Schwartzman has to offer. Though he’s racked up the most wins on clay, he almost always puts forth a great run at the U.S. Open and the tournaments leading up to it. Last year, his late-season push put him in the ATP Finals.
Well, that couldn’t be further from the truth this year. The Argentinian No. 1 has fallen into a bit of a slump, falling early in the Olympics, blowing three match points last week against Roberto Bautista-Agut and looking unconvincing in a win over out-of-form Dan Evans on Tuesday.
Schwartzman’s backhand doesn’t seem to be providing the winners we’re used to, and he seems to be lacking pace on his forehand. He really struggled as Evans begun to take pace off the ball with his signature slice, and I believe Tiafoe, who is strong in playing the slice, can implement that same gameplan.
The American has been on a decent run of late, even with a loss in qualifying last week. I believe his aggression, variety and willingness to come to the net should prevent Schwartzman from getting into a rhythm and should help him succeed where Evans couldn’t as he tried to finish off Tuesday’s match.
Edge: Tiafoe +105
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Sebastian Korda (+242) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-313)
Though Tiafoe is rounding into form, the same can’t be said about Korda. The American, who was the talk of the tennis world during his run at Wimbledon, just hasn’t looked the same since an easy disposal of Dan Evans in the third round there. He infamously blew several chances in the fifth set the following round to serve it out again Khachanov, and from there was a lackluster showing at Washington and an unconvincing win over Laslo Djere.
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While Korda’s got the skills, drive and work ethic to reach the top 15 in this game, he’s going through a bit of a rut that’s common with younger players after they experience a meteoric rise. After working so hard just to get into the top 100, then the top 50, he’s simply hit a bit of a wall.
Watching Korda beat Djere, he didn’t appear to be all that comfortable or all that confident. While I’m bullish on his long-term outlook, I don’t believe he’s playing his very best tennis at the moment. That will hurt when you’re facing Tsitsipas, who Reilly Opelka correctly pegged as the second-best player in the game right now, after Novak Djokovic. His groundstroking has been crisp, and he’s executed his gameplans to perfection. I’d be interested in taking Korda to cover 5.5 games or so, but this line is a bit outrageous.
Edge: Tsitsipas -3.5 Games
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