Day 5 at the French Open saw Jay and Drew cash with Nicolas Jarry defeating Tommy Paul in four sets but lost when Elena Rybakina defeated Linda Noskova in straight sets by a total of six games.
Winners Thursday included Ons Jabeur, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff on the women’s side and Casper Ruud and Francis Tiafoe for the men. The list of losers on Day 5 included Madison Keys, Donna Vekic, Tommy Paul, and Jannick Sinner.
As the day concludes in Paris, we look ahead to Day 6 with the help of NBC Sports betting analysts Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper).
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Friday, June 2, 2023
Novak Djokovic to defeat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Straight Sets (-115)
Dinsick: “I got hooked yesterday. Rybakina hooked me. Six game margin for Rybakina against Noskova so I need a winner. I’m gonna go somewhat chalky here and I’m gonna take Novak Djokovic to win in straight sets against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. People kind of looked at this potential Round 3 match-up as the first spot you could see Djokovic get in a little bit of trouble. However, I think realistically what we saw from Djokovic last night against Fucsovics who was playing as well as I’ve ever seen Fucsovics play. Djokovic just absolutely ate him for dinner in sets two and three there. It was wild to see the level he was able to produce. I think that was exactly what he needed to start building some momentum to what ultimately will be a French Open title. And I think the market expects this to be competitive to the degree of ADF winning a set. I do not see it. Djokovic is even money to win three zero and I think that is the best way to attack this one.”
Elise Mertens +4.5 games (-135) vs. Jessica Pegula
Croucher: “I’m going with my good friend, Elise Mertens +4.5 games on the handicap against our American friend Jessica Pegula. Pegula’s form has been a little bit scratchy coming into Roland Garros losing to a qualifier in Rome and a straight sets loss at Madrid to Kudermutova as well who didn’t cover herself in glory in Paris. So I think that Mertens is the kind of player who is just destined to lose 7-6, 6-4 to a slightly superior player but I think that she’s live on the money line at +210 as well to beat Pegula outright. I like the little buffer of plus 4.5 games on the handicap.
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Nicolas Jarry -1.5 games (-120) vs. Tommy Paul (WIN)
Croucher: “I’m gonna go with the big serving Chalayan and Nicolas Jerry minus one and a half games against your countrymen, Tommy Paul, Tommy Paul, not playing particularly well at the moment. He had a good hardcourt season, but on clay he’s coming off losses against guys like Brandon Nakashima in straight sets, losses to Garin and Andy Murray recently. He’s just not playing his best tennis. Meanwhile, Jarry is on an absolute tear coming off a win at Geneva beating guys like Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov so I think that he is just in better form at the moment and he’s rightfully favored.”
Linda Noskova +5.5 games (-101) vs. Elena Rybakina (LOSS)
Dinsick: “She (Noskova) is a former Junior Champion here at Roland Garros. My fair price here is -400 for Rybakina and then +400 for Noskova. So I’m gonna sprinkle a little bit of moneyline here on this Czech teenager. But the better bet for me is going to be +5.5 games. I got that at -101. I think this is a relatively tight contest. I don’t think Rybakina has the return game to really frustrate Noskova and this is going to potentially take three sets to decide and again Rybakina on upset alert for me. Let’s go new school but let’s get that +5.5 games home.”
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Daria Kasatkina ML (+205) vs. Marketa Vondrousova (WIN)
Croucher: “Daria Kasatkina has been in fantastic form on clay and has some great wins and also playing some really good players close getting sets off – Jelena Ostapenko, Kudermetova as well. So, I think that Kasatkina despite grave concerns about her serve. I think that this should be close to plus 150 against Vondrousova who’s also playing really well.”
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Stephanos Tsitsipas OVER 33.5 total games (-110) (LOSS)
Dinsick: “I have this going four or five sets over 50% of the time, and with the total sitting at 33½ that makes for a decent edge because we can get there with a couple tie breaks and we can get it with this match going four or five sets. I think realistically Tsitsipas takes this 3-1 or 3-2, but it’s going to be a lot closer of a match than the market currently makes it. So give me over 33½ games.”
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Veronika Kudermetova (+1800) to win her quarter of the draw (LOSS)
Dinsick: “Kudermetova at 18:1 is crazy…She’s the second-best player in this draw. She’s on the weaker side. So basically, the way this works is Iga (Swiatek) and Krejcikova by market are your two highest rated players (in this quarter)…They run into each other in Round Four. Only one of them will make the quarterfinal, presumptively Iga. Kudermetova gets to go through a softer path. Coco Gauff has taken an enormous step backwards this season relative to last year in terms of quality of play on the same surface against weaker competition. She’s not performing as well. Realistically, she is the bet against in the bottom half of Q1. Kudermetova comes through. She did not fare well at all in the semifinals in Madrid against Iga. I think Iga beat her 6-1, 6-1…It wasn’t even that competitive. It was an absolute white washing. Realistically, you’re hoping Krejcikova either does damage to Iga or just outright upsets Iga or maybe Iga has a little bit of a hamstring or thigh thing going on that, you know some how she does not make it to that stage of the tournament. But whatever the case is Kudermetova should be closer to 5:1 to get out of this quarter by my numbers. 18:1 to one is an absolute steal. It’s a long shot. It’s probably not going to win, but I think you have to have that in pocket.”
Monday, May 29, 2023
Ons Jabeur (+600) to win her quarter of the draw
Dinsick: “If she finds fitness over the balance of the first week and change here, she probably comes out of q2, even against the idea of going against Elena Rybakina. She’s a much better clay player, so if she can get fit, she’s going to be a bet that you will want to have in pocket. I have not fired yet in full transparency, but my numbers say don’t be an idiot. Go bet that quarter.”
Taylor Fritz (+1000) to win his quarter of the draw
Dinsick: “He’s been playing well on clay this year. Not well enough to say that he should be close to the favorite price in this market, but definitely closer to the favorite than 10:1. I like his spot on the draw. I like his head-to-head win against Rune in Miami this year. This to me feels actually feels like there’s a realistic chance he wins. Fritz plays great at the best of five level. Let’s go with Taylor Fritz at 10:1 (to win his quarter of the draw).”
Sunday, May 28, 2023
Novak Djokovic to win the French Open (+250)
Dinsick: “At this point, I think the only bet in the outright markets on the men’s side is Novak Djokovic. Its not the sexiest bet but my numbers show the odds for Alcaraz and Djokovic should be reversed. The degree of the difference in experience in best of five tennis between Djokovic and everyone else outside of Medvedev maybe is just spectacular. Djokovic has played 425 Best to five matches in his career. He has a 90% winning percentage in those matches. Carlos Alvarez, in contrast…he’s played 31 best of five tennis matches in his career.”
Aryna Sabalenka to win the French Open (+600)
Croucher: “Sabalenka is only going to have to face one of the Rybakina or Swiatek due to the way the draw fell. As a result, if she’s fresher and if she’s a little sharper than whomever survives the other half of the draw maybe gives her a little bit more of a leveling effect in the final itself. I think Sabalenka is your pre flop play. PointsBet has her price at +600 and I see the fair price at +525.”
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Enjoy the tournament and enjoy the sweat.
