The Premier League returns this week after a break in play to accommodate the cup schedule. With Matchday 25 kicking off on Friday, I am back with another Premier League Betting Power Rankings. As a reminder, these are not intended to have a bet on every game, and certainly not two. This lists the bets I found with the most value, two for each game.
Below are my top five favorite bets for this week’s Premier League slate. Enjoy the games this weekend.
Premier League Betting Power Rankings:
- Fulham: Both Teams to Score (-116)
- Newcastle +0.75 (-135)
- Bournemouth Over 3 Goals (-122)
- West Ham Over 5.5 Corners (-112)
- Alexander Isak Anytime Scorer (+120)
Leicester City vs Arsenal: Saturday 7:30 AM ET
Bet 1: Leicester City +1.5 (+100)
With Kai Havertz getting injured in training, the Gunners are now down Leandro Trossard, Ethan Nwaneri, and Raheem Sterling as their only healthy first-team forwards. Arsenal certainly still has the skill to win this match by two goals. However, with 23 goals in the medical room, there is value on Leicester City keeping this within one goal.
Bet 2: Under 3 Goals (-140)
With Arsenal shorthanded in front of the net, I like this to be a close, low-scoring win for the Gunners. The reverse fixture saw six goals, mainly due to Leicester City scoring two goals with an xG of 0.66. It’s hard to expect Leicester to over-exceed their xG that much against a stout Arsenal defense.
West Ham vs Brentford: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
BTTS & Over 2.5 goals is hitting in 57% of West Ham matches and 64% of Brentford matches. These two teams don’t keep clean sheets, and with good attacking talent, we should expect this to be an open game.
Bet 2: West Ham Over 5.5 Corners -112
This wager is correlated with Brentford scoring first or early in this match. Brentford have scored first in 55% of their away matches. West Ham have conceded the first goal in 67% of their home matches this season. Which correlates to the corners conceded per match by Brentford. They are conceding 8.09 corners per away match. They have conceded at least six corners in 73% of those matches.
Southampton vs Bournemouth: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Over 3 Goals (-122)
Bournemouth have a squad of really talented players. Justin Kluivert has scored 11 goals this season. Antione Semenyo is a stud; his 10 total goal contributions have helped push this team to within shouting distance of a European berth. The goal average in Southampton matches is 3.45, and they concede 2.73 per game. Bournemouth should be able to run it on their side, and Southampton should also be able to find the back of the net.
Bet 2: Bournemouth -1 (-130)
Southampton have been poor defensively this season. Bournemouth are in great form, winning three of their last five matches. I like the -1 in this match and the price associated with it.
Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score (-112)
Aston Villa have only kept a clean sheet in 17% of their home matches this season. While they clearly are the better team, Ipswich don’t quit. They have only been shut out three times on the road this season. BTTS is hitting in 75% of Aston Villa’s home matches and 73% of Ipswich’s road matches.
Bet 2: Aston Villa -1.5 1st Half Corner Handicap (-115)
Aston Villa has won the first-half corner spread in three of their last five matches at Villa Park. The Villains should have 55% possession in the first half. While I’d rather play this angle live should Villa give up the first goal.
Manchester City vs Newcastle: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Newcastle +0.75 (-135)
Manchester City are in a tough spot. They played and lost to Real Madrid midweek. They have to play a strong Newcastle spot while a good chunk of their team is injured. This is a classic lookahead spot with an away trip to Madrid early next week.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays beginning at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Bet 2: Alexander Isak Anytime Scorer (+120)
Isak has scored 17 goals this season. He’s now gone back-to-back games without scoring. With City’s backline in shambles, I could see Isak getting on the scoresheet here again.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score (-116)
Both teams to score feels like an auto bet in Craven Cottage. It’s hitting at an 83% clip this season. It’s a mandatory bet at this price.
Bet 2: Draw (+245)
The draw has hit 42% of Fulham’s home matches. This could be a tough match where both teams want to walk away with a point.
Crystal Palace vs Everton: Saturday 12:30 PM ET
Bet 1: Crystal Palace Moneyline (-122)
It’s hard to digest placing a wager on a team that has won just 17% of their home matches this season. Crystal Palace is a strong and physical unit that matches up well with Everton. Not to mention, the Toffees are coming off of an emotional draw during the Merseyside Derby. Palace could sneak a win in this one.
Bet 2: Under 2.25 Goals (-115)
This is a matchup between two tough defensive units. With goal averages of 2.33 and 2.00, the two could finish 1-0, and I wouldn’t be shocked.
Liverpool vs Wolves: Sunday 9:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Liverpool -2 (-112)
Wolves have battled the injury bug all season. Injuries started creeping back in as soon as they began to get healthy. They aren’t defensively sound at the back and concede far too many goals. Liverpool lost a cup match to Plymouth and dropped points to Everton in the Merseyside Derby. Now back at home, Liverpool are in a great position to run it up on Wolves.
Bet 2: Mohamed Salah Anytime Goal Scorer & Liverpool Moneyline (-123)
Salah has been great this season. He’s scored 22 goals this season. With a projected total of three, Salah likely will be one of the goal scorers in this match.
Tottenham vs Manchester United: Sunday 11:30 AM ET
Bet 1: Tottenham Draw No Bet (-120)
It’s hard to trust either of these teams. Manchester United have only won three matches away from Old Trafford this season.
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-155)
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is, hitting in 75% of the matches played at Hotspurs Stadium. That alone is enough for me to back this bet at the -155 price.
